Member Info for The_Paladin

Why do individuals from each category participate in an exchange on this forum? Their paradigms, and the term of their investment, are very different. There is no common ground for a fruitful exchange of opinions. It is like witnessing two monolingual individuals attempting a conversation in their very different languages. A pointless activity.

A very different issue arises when the exchange becomes a personal issue. The malicious troll that Aether mentions (not currently on this forum) is to be avoided at all cost. It is never about investment with that person. It is all about voicing contempt for a faceless person, or a group of individuals, who happen to have remained invested in Synairgen, despite the declining share price over the last year or so. The individual is narcissistic and unhealthily obsessive about Synairgen investors, who happen to disagree with his point of view. A filter is an useful tool to dispense with such nastiness. It is always sensible to avoid unpleasant individuals

This information is from the weekly Patient Access newsletter. It may be superfluous to most contributors, but it added to my core knowledge. It also made me appreciate the rigour involved in conducting these trials, which also explains the time element involved in their completion.

https://patient.info/news-and-features/are-clinical-trials-safe?xnpe_tifc=OkhLxFPNhFVDbDPN4.eN4ypJRfn-xIesxFeux.nA4dodbZllbD18tfHd4F1AOI_7hIYjOFoJhFx7rF4uxInDbDBLhF1ZOFxp4InT&utm_source=exponea&utm_campaign=166th%20version%20PA%20Newsletter%2009/05/2023&utm_medium=email

Thank you howdlep for the Crystal Equity report and valuation. The facts are clearly stated, although the 6.50GBP speculative valuation is a tad conservative IMHO. I am expecting the share price to rise to multiples of this figure. Let us see what the future holds?

An interesting and readily accessible summary of the relevant facts that will take Synairgen's product and delivery method to the next trial IMHO. It resembles several sales pitches that I have sat through over the year. It adds to my belief that the Comms department have improved the way that the company presents itself on all fronts. Brooke Clarke has been a valuable addition to the team. Whether the other recruits in anticipation of Sprinter success are adding value remains to be seen?

https://synairgen.ams3.digitaloceanspaces.com/7th-ISIRV-AVG-Conference-2023-Phillip-Monk.pdf

I choose to discount the mutterings of trolls on any investment forum. Their contributions are mostly about their opinions, and there are no facts bar stating the obvious to back up their assertions.

GLALTIs

https://isirv.org/site/images/conferences/AVG_Seattle/7th%20AVG%20Conference%20Seattle%203-5%20May%20-%20Final%20Programme%2026%20April.pdf

Dr. Monk is giving a 15 minute presentation entitled "Clinical Trials of Inhaled Interferon Beta-1a (SNG001) in COVID-19 Patients in the Home and Hospital Settings" tomorrow (Session 6 at 12:05). This would presumably be a comprehensive summary of all the results at our disposal (Sprinter including deep dive and Activ-2 Phase 2)?

This will be followed by the ATS 2023 Respiratory Innovation Summit on May 20.

We will probably receive our usual twitter/LinkedIn messages about these conferences.

I find it odd that the market values Synairgen on its cash reserves alone. Currently the cash burn is too high IMHO, but that is another issue? This is because expensive senior leadership personnel have been retained in the post-Sprinter era. There is no evidence to suggest that they contribute anything of value, but I may be wrong? The roles for which they were hired, over a year ago, are unlikely to come to the fore for a considerable time according to our latest information? The CEO couldn't justify retaining them when questioned in last year's AGM, and practically dismissed the issue, when the question was asked.

All the data gathering and compilation that has gone on during the last year counts for nothing? The CEO reiterated last week that the company is focused on data. Apparently, according to the market's current valuation, our data, patents, and safety record count for nothing? It is as though the company were starting from scratch with £18m in the bank?

I am having difficulty in understanding the above? Everything we have been following for over a year has no intrinsic value? As investors, we can but wish that there is more to the company than the CEO's nebulous New Year message, and recent vague update? I view the latest information as a reset, which excludes the progress we had been led to believe was actually in place?

It is odd to contemplate that selling all my stock @ 30-35p last year, and not topping-up would have been a very wise move? I have totally misjudged the situation. I genuinely believed that the company's personnel had more to offer than turned out to be the case. We can but hope that there is considerably more substance emerging from the reset, than has occurred in the last 14 months? I am having doubts, and await more definitive information to allay my concerns.

GLALTIs

Well said Trinityman. A first rate summary.

I am not concerned about the time element as long as this investment reaches fruition in the end. I would not have remained with it for so long if I didn’t believe that a satisfactory endpoint was possible?

However, I do feel that we have endlessly meandered for well over a year. My long weekend book is Mick Herron’s “Slow Horses”. The title somewhat reminds me of a certain team in Southampton, who are running this particular show.

ATB and GLALTIs.

It is as though Imaging Biometrics were a totally separate company from IQ-AI. Here is a recent LinkedIn message from them. They are playing their part towards getting this investment on track.

“Our IB User Group webinars are off to a great start thanks to leading experts, such as Michael Iv and Kathleen Schmainda, who generously offer their time to share the clinical benefits, application, and underlying science of Imaging Biometrics, LLC software. Up next will be our very own Joshua McComack who will present: Integrating IB Clinic (Container) in Routine Clinical Workflows on Sept 19! #mri #gbm #neurosurgery #neuroradiology #oncology #metastasis “

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/andrecasterman_securitisation-tokenisation-tradefinance-activity-7056736496824852480-0xUm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

Nothing much has changed as a result of yesterday’s brief statement. Most of what it contains was already known.

Two positive points as far as I am concerned.
1. The company’s cash position.
2. The company is getting back to what it does best, namely research and development including small scale clinical trialling.

It is clear despite what was said previously, that Synairgen need to gather appropriate data to secure funding, by an appropriate route, for another Phase III trial.

When this is achieved, it will be accompanied by a share price re-rate, as was the case in 2020. However, I anticipate a modest rise on this occasion perhaps between x2 and x3.

This investment may take several years to come to fruition? It is unfortunate that the company hadn’t played to its strengths and adopted this approach last Autumn?

I don’t understand why so much emphasis is placed on the target groups as the latest trials are being arranged? Surely this has been known as long ago as the P2 Home trial outcome? At the time the CEO remarked that Synairgen “needed a fire to put out”OWTTE. That statement immediately targets older and immunocompromised patients, whose symptoms are likely to be more severe than most as a result of weakened immune systems? Were these groups targeted during the Sprinter trial? The effect of improvements in SOC making it difficult to differentiate between the outcomes for trialled and placebo patients would be lessened for the current targeted groups?

The bottom line is that the company is actually doing something again, and surely that is positive news? That fact alone should help to stabilise the share price? The AGM should give us a further update, as well as informing us why it has taken so long to reach yesterday’s strategy announcement?

Mani. It is all to do with the absence of any income stream since the capital raise for the Sprinter trial. If and when the company achieves another funded Phase III trial, the situation will improve.

By the way, the CEO was interviewed on Proactive Investors this morning. nessab’s contribution below supplies the link.

“it's called investment and is done by people with a time horizontal beyond tea time tomorrow,each to his/her/? own”

If you were a regular visitor to this forum, you would know that most of today’s contributors are long term investors.

In light of the company’s activities over the last year, I was expecting to hear of rather more progress than was announced today. It is therefore not unreasonable that I, and many others like me, have expressed our disappointment on the lack of progress since the Sprinter trial outcome.

My significant investment in this company has grown incrementally since August 2020. Today, I have accepted that my investment horizon has been considerably extended. My stock will remain bedded in my ISA until my target share price is achieved. I will no doubt have gotten over my disappointment by tomorrow.

I am in agreement with TommyD_19. We all accepted the company’s words unreservedly until now. Perhaps they did aspire towards a PT invitation or towards a collaborative trial partnership with a BP ally?

Clearly nothing materialised from their efforts, so we are back to small scale trialing on the company dollar.

I am as confused as TD_19 on this one? Were the company deluded in believing that any of the above could be accomplished? It would appear so.

The Board will no doubt face some difficult questions at the next AGM? I hope that the issue of pruning any unnecessary staff in the absence of any income for the foreseeable future is discussed, and subsequently acted upon. I don’t want to see any individual lose his/her job, but if they remain in situ with nothing to do, the issue needs to be dealt with.

A disappointment, following 14 months of holding in anticipation of some sign of recovery. To discover that there has been no concrete strategy in place until now is surprising? They could have proceeded with small scale clinical trialling at the company’s expense long before now,

Like others here, I have come to realise that Ghia’s bottom drawer chicken has finally come home to roost. Further, the CEO has kicked the can down the road until H2, adding insult to injury.

My best to all LTIs on here, as always.

“SNG have a set of very good technical minds but their commercialisation strategy leaves much to be desired.”

Ghia.

I agree with you about the company’s naivety regarding commercialisation.

I am not so sure about the “good set of technical minds though”? The Sprinter trial failure has been discussed ad nauseam, and needs no further comment. The fact that it has taken 14 months to arrive at where we are today is indicative of further naivety as regards the time taken to arrive at a post-trial clinical development strategy necessary to get the company back on track.

My question in light of today’s statement is whether it is wise to retain a team of senior leaders who were brought in to execute Synairgen’s post trial commercialisation strategy in early 2022? A conservative estimate of their contribution to the company’s cash burn would be £1m p.a.? As I recall from the information kindly contributed by Doc83 and Wigster77, the CEO couldn’t provide any detailed justification for retaining the commercialisation team at the last AGM. Further we have two financial directors on the senior leadership team, and no income?

Bearing in mind that the negotiations that have been undertaken since the AGM have led to nothing, it is high time for the CEO to contemplate a cost cutting exercise IMHO.

Meanwhile, Astrazenica are have announced the good progress they have made during Q1 this year. They could buy out Synairgen with no noticeable difference to their balance sheet.

GLALTIs.

The cash position was at the high end of my expectations. No worries there.

Does the outlined strategy suggest that Synairgen needs to gather further evidence at its own expense in order to secure a Phase 3 trial partner? Or is the spectre of a cash raise, and another company-led trial on the horizon?

I was expecting more after 14 months of planning and discussion. There was no hint of cost cutting. Are the salaries of the expensive pre-commercialisation hires justified under the proposed schedule, which is long term?

Perhaps there is more to this than I am able to ascertain from the RNS? In the absence of a hint of any trial partners, I am unable to fathom anything concrete from this!

GLALTIs.

Without going into specifics, I would sell all my Synairgen stock @ 100p per share. This would give me a net ISA profit of around 8.6% pa compound interest on my 32 month investment. A middlish five figure sum. Sadly I would have fared considerably better had I sold up in late December 2021. I then held exactly one half of my current share holding.

I am encouraged that some contributors, who are so obviously better informed about the bio pharmaceutical space than myself, opine that previous share price predictions may yet be attainable?

From my own point of view, having regretted not exiting in late 2021 for over 14 months, I would now be prepared to miss out on a bigger profit, if my targeted exit price were achieved ? What was that famous Who song called? It now applies to my investment mindset, and not just to my Synairgen investment.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RDVdomcsjBA

GLALTIs.

A perfect analogy there Doc.Daneeka. That made me smile. It would be useful if the “manager” (Wasn’t that his original job tile prior to receiving a substantial promotion?) occasionally emerged from the boot room, so that his charisma could be deployed to good effect?

We must take heart from the fact that Joe Biden won an US Presidential election, while remaining hidden in his garage for most of the campaign. Perhaps our charismatic manager may yet “turn up Trumps” in a similar fashion?

ATB and GLALTIs.

Wigster77.

Thank you for reminding me that Mani’s Option 1 found most favour from investors yesterday. Owing to the dearth of information for well over a year, one cannot begin to predict what will eventually happen with this investment?

Although I am more of a fence sitter at present, I prefer to remain optimistic that something good will eventually result from my over-investment in Synairgen?

ATB and GLALTIs

I have just read today’s RNS statements supplied by two other companies in which I am invested. The following is part of the introduction to the operational highlights supplied by the CEO of one of those companies.

“The key drivers are all shareholders, who have had to become accustomed to the vagaries of the stock market and how it values the Company’s shares. Oftentimes the market capitalisation of the Company has changed over a small number of trading days by 10-25% without any discernable reason, however we remain firmly focused on the medium-term commercial prospects for our unique products and are confident that shareholder patience will be eventually rewarded. We will not deviate from our central aim of achieving commercial and medical success.”

This serves to reassure investors, without giving anything away. In addition, investors receive a 3 -monthly update from the CEO of the company, which forms a major component of this particular investment.

Like Synairgen, this investment needs a major piece of news to have a significant impact on the share price. The difference between the two investments lies with the supply of information to investors.

Fourteen months with little more than the information summed up in a nebulous New Year statement from the leadership team isn’t good enough. I do not include the analysis and summary of promising headline data from a trial, which was paid for by investors, and failed to deliver on any of its targeted outcomes. The latter had zero impact on the share price.

I gather that most LTIs on this forum are expecting the CEO to under-deliver once again in tomorrow’s statement. I have no reason to differ although I continue to remain optimistic that the situation will eventually resolve itself to the satisfaction of most investors with or without the assistance of the current incumbents.

GLALTIs.

Doc83.

The "we continue to work in haste...to find the best path forward..." line OWTTE has been reiterated so many times now, mostly by Brooke Clarke when replying to investors' queries. It has literally worn out its welcome as far as LTIs are concerned?

Some of our forum's experts have stated that planning and negotiating a trial takes time. I confirmed this in my own research several months ago, and shared that research here.

It makes little sense for the company to send several execs and others to conferences as was the case last year, unless they have something new to add to the data that was regularly re-presented by Dr. Monk last year? Nothing new has emerged for months apart from the regular layperson standard multi format dialogue on twitter/LinkedIn. This was professionally done and well-presented, but for what purpose? Perhaps we will find out soon?

Most of us want something significant to emerge this week. However, we have been here before, when there has been a build up of optimism only to have no update. This process cannot go on indefinitely. I am of the opinion that the company should by now have had sufficient time to negotiate a trial opportunity of some description?

Should that not have happened, they need to consider reducing their expenditure? I am concerned about the CEO's team of experts, which he built in anticipation of trial success? Do they have enough to do to justify their salaries? The CEO stated that they would be deployed in next steps negotiations? It would be good to finally see some white smoke from what has now been 14 months without the significant update needed for the company to move forward again.

I continue to remain optimistic, and look forward to Thursday's RNS. A breakthrough from the ongoing negotiations that we have heard about is needed. Without it, the current share price stagnation will continue.

GLALTIs.