Member Info for the_Chuz

"Still my choice but in struggling to make the numbers add up for mining in general now with the halving imminent so can only assume that a big portion of the expected bull run is already priced in."

I was thinking the same a little while back especially when etf is out, who would want the miners but then started thinking about the rebalancing.

Without getting into any numbers it goes like this with 2 counters to the supply shock for the miners.

If miners cannot stay afloat they will go under, when that happens the global hash will drop and more rewards going to the ones left. Whoever can weather the short term pain gets the reward. Miners won't go bankrupt on the day of the halving so it will take a few quarters for the adjustment.

Fees have gone up lately which is an interesting angle, eventually the miners will exist only for fees and not the block reward..

Of course, the price of btc is expected to go up, if it doubles around the halving then it's all about the same..

Interesting times.. A few weeks back I was thinking of getting out of the miners, instead I stuck a another 10k into cleanspark.. I'm obviously glad I did now, seems like a no brainier to of done it but at the time it was 50/50.

As we all know the market is designed to mess with your head and take your money.. I am more and more moving along the lines of doing the opposite to what I' feel' is the right thing to do.

Such a positive view

"It's quite impressive how btc can move, this time to the downside, I think we had support at 35.2k if I remember rightly?"

Hahaha 35.2k gave no support whatsoever it fell straight through it.. Into 34's now.. And to think I sold my Tesla for cleanspark the other day.. I am the worst haha

It's quite impressive how btc can move, this time to the downside, I think we had support at 35.2k if I remember rightly?

Let's get thisbtc drop out of the way with and we will see where the dust settles.. Most people are expecting the 35k range.. Sooner it's done the better then it's off we go again

Better than I was anticipating although me view stays the same.. The new ceo is trying.

"BTC has to see serious sustained upward momentum, probably all the way to new all time highs and well beyond, if there's to be any chance of a medium term turnaround here."

No matter which way I look at it Argo is fried... It will need to buy machines or continue to be squeazed out by the bigger miners.

As the other miners expand Argos share of the network will drop leading to a slow bleed to death.

The only way round it will be a massive share issue to buy rigs.. That will hurt anyone holding it at the moment and still won't be enough for longevity.

"Choosing, I also have concerns re miners with the halving ! Have you checked out KR1"

I sold Kr1 for around 52p in March 23 when btc was around 27k.

I struggled to sell because it was so illiquid on the market.

KR1 is sat at 60p with btc at 37k+.. It would of been much better just buying btc straight. KR1 up about 15% since March and a nightmare to sell.. Btc up nearly 40% in that time and very liquid.

The only reason I personally would recommend KR1 to someone would be for them to provide me with liquidity to exit.

On paper it looks decent enough in reality it sucks.

Well.. My choice was capitulate or do something else about it so that's another 10 grand into cleanspark to average down.. I'll see if I can average my way out of the mess

"Sometimes when everyone else has doubt is the best time to buy :-)"

That's what stops me from selling, I get the psychology, I'm just tired, I know the markets can be irrational for longer than solvency, I get the irrational exuberance when it happens. I've read the books and I've been investing for over 25 years... I'm still sick of the miners I hold though.

I'm close to capitulation myself.. I want to get rid of these miners, I was expecting them to be higher when btc went up but the market really isn't keen. 3 or 4 months ago I would never of thought 37k btc would have barely an effect on the miner price and to see them fall when btc is rising makes me just want to get out and invest in something more sensible like unicorns

"I'm with you the_Chuz, i'm selling up moment MARA gets to 20 bucks, I break even around 13 or 14 bucks I think but need 20 bucks for the stress i've endured. Fooking stressfull this Crypto larke, i'm sticking with buying nearly bust companies and riding them up and down lol."

Funny enough it sounds like we are in very similar positions and the same exit. I was expecting $20 when we went back to btc 31k. Now it's just all downside with no upside, maybe is the market psyching us out to sell or maybe it's just that the etf gives much better prospects and nobody wants the miners anymore

I'll be glad when I can ditch all miners, they have proven themselves to be dilution machines who are constantly hitting the reward share button in a big way to line the staff pockets

He used to have a passion for the company, I had many conversations with Matt, I was invested at the point of him taking over the company and we shouldn't forget that if he hadn't of put in his own cash at the time then the company would of closed.

He was outplayed by seasoned pro in the oil market.. The Hewitts come to mind.. They managed to play Matt like a fiddle, I think he had some hard lessons at that point.. I think it all went very wrong when he brought in Alden (I think that was his name).

I held for years and years and ultimately sold out at a 75% loss.. Which is 24.5% more that what I would of had if I held, I lost 10's of thousands investing in Matt.

It is clear it just doesn't work.

I still remember the war cries... Come on Boxberger #5!

Hey there's one positive atleast... The miners are correlated with btc again, it goes down 0.5% and our leveraged investments go down 3-5%.. Phew

I know the market is designed to make us buckle but I'm considering ditching all the miners at a small loss.. I really do not like this detachment from the btc movements.

I intended on waiting until just before the halving and cashing out at a profit but the correlation seems to have gone.

I do not see any point in holding the miners after the halving but I'm struggling to see the upside even at this point..

I won't be making any rash decisions but what I have been holding for has not materialised such as 32k btc to 20$ mara

"BTC flying who predicted the good Octobers x;) looks good for 32 plus this week will mara breach 10 x"

Frustratingly when btc was 31k last time mara was around 18, mix in the dilution and we should be 15+.

Just need the money to start flowing in the right direction again.

I'm looking at mara and riot at the moment, they have the ridicous position of being up about 50% of the btc movement which is just daft and removes all risk reward.

I assume it part of a wider market malaise but now it seems its better to just buy btc than touch the miners.

I have to admit I'm getting concerned with the US miners.. Even on a good btc more they are reacting poorly with only minimal gains.

I also think that when the etf's get underway people will leave the miners as there is just the constant dilution and not much reason to hold them.

I'm a decent way under water with the US miners but I'm not seeing much benifit in holding then, seems like leveraged risk on the downside but not leveraged to the upside.

35k btc?

Yea 35 - 42