The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
"35
BTC looks like going to break through to 31000 / 32000 we could be around 15 /16"
Looks more like another rejection at around 30k to me and most likely set for a fall back to 28.5k maybe..
Still all good though, the trend is up.
PI... Been there done that so I know how it feels, then I diversify and then end up back in crypto to heavy anyways,
My trend direction seems to be about right but my risk management sucks, I'm either all in or all out which is stressful.. One day though Rodney we'll all be millionaires
28.5k btc is my magic number but I'll probably bottle it before then and buy back in. If mara and riot can lose around 15% today then I'm back in regardless... Its a risky game being out.. As we both know it's sickening to watch it rocket when you've called it wrong.. Done it too many times but I equally don't like it when I kick myself for not following through with a directional decision thsts right.
Damned if you do damned if you don't.
PI. You didn't evenast a day, not even half a day, such a btc crackhead
I think the tick up will be swiftly followed by another wick down so for me there's no rush.
I am annoyed I could short argo earlier when it was 20% up, I would of made some decent beer money.
I just sold mara and riot as they looked weak considering btc price, I've seen in the past where the miners lead the btc price so might be in for a drop.
Or that's also whatoat of the other dumb money thinks so they are selling ready for the tutes to wipe the floor with us.
I feel a revisit to 28k coming, who knows though, the market is designed to catch us out and make the wrong decision, although come us market open I think I'm going to drop mara and riot and try to rescoope them tomorrow.. Just feel bad mojo in my bones
"I've got loads of profit in, it was getting really stressful for me, constantly watching bitcoin, I'm going to sell the rest of my MARA and all of WULF today. And take a little break from crypto. I've just booked a holiday for four weeks, for the whole family, flying out beginning of next month. I'm hoping I don't look at shares for four weeks and finally have a few good night's sleep lol."
To be honest you were getting a little punchy :)
"Thoughts on the BlackRock developments chaps?"
Maybe something big but also might be a giant nothing burger. They are involved in many many financial aspects directly and I believe even more indirectly.
If they wanted to disrupt the market.or play big in btc they have the financial firepower to do so without a ETF / Trust.
For me there is an alteior motive, I just don't know what it is, the outcome to all of it would depend on the motive.
"I would have thought that any miner that can keep production costs down and overheads proportional to business size would have a decent chance of continuing profitability?"
Not sure it works like that, for me it's like the highlander.. At the end of it there can be only 1.. Or maybe 2 ha.
Whenever new miners come online it gets harder for everyone as the difficulty increases.. ARGO will need to spend buckets of cash it doesn't have just to stand still as the likes of the giant US miners increase thier hashrate and the network hash.
97. 7 mil of the 500 mil used, 400 mil worth left to issue as they see fit.
158 mil cash in hand
55 mil loss for first quarter (mostly depreciation)
12 mil expenses for first quarter
26mil generated for the quarter after mining cost but before administrative & project costs.
That was from 31 march.. We are now over 2 months down the line from that.
Maybe we are misunderstanding eachorher, I am not saying that riot is likely to go bust or its a bad company, I've been heavily invested in it for some time but at some point in the next couple of months I believe they will need to issue more shares (via atm) or take on debt.
Logically I would go for the share issue, miners cannot stand still. The income is (mostly) from btc which ideally won't be sold, so cash on hand will be used but 100ish mil isn't going to go far in this race.
"Am I missing something?"
Its about cash flow, it's either raise equity, debt, sell btc to get cash, mouths need feeding and they are big mouths to feed too.. Unless RIOT do somethibg differnt they will run out of cash in months, nothing to be concerned about, all quite normal, just might me a a dilution.
Well, I had the choice of buying more MARA or more RIOT and I've picked MARA purely on sentiment and not core belief.
I reckon riot has another month or so before trying to raise some money (so they have 6 months cash burn left), but if people are getting squeaky bums and moving money then sometimes it's better to not swim against the tide.
My money is on Mara correcting, it does seem low, I was actually goi g to divest some RIOT into MARA for that reason... Something does seem out of balance.. I think MARA has recently done it's capital raise and I'm not sure RIOT has done it's fund raising recently so it could be a dilution on its way, I would like to think that the BOD would have more sense than to telegraph it so blatantly if that is the case
I'm not sure of the long longevity of the miners in general though, I'm talking beyond the halving, if btc remains subdued then I can't see the income stream properly to warrant the huge expense of it all.
I am thinking that some of the data centers will convert to AI processing but I can't see the demand being THAT big.
45k btc and I hang up my boots and look for more fundamental based stock.
Also look at the directors share holdings.. I think it's more riot gives out director shares like they are buscuits
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/RIOT/insider
The CEO sell is only 1.4% of his holdings, hardly a panic move.
Look at director Lance's holding, he doesn't like holding riot shares and sells them whenever he can.. It looks like Sept 22 he had 13k shares, now he's up to 69k shares..
Looks to me like they've all had some performance shares that are being flogged off, most likely for tax.
Are you sure it's not related to performance issued shares for smashing EBITDA targets that are auto selling to cover tax?
It would be nice to get some clarity on it though as its a bit if a dark cloud that will create a sell off.
It's possible we will see a big btc rug pull, I've seen it before where the miners appeared to lead btc direction.
Could just be noise and froth though, RIOT can go up 8% for no particular reason so stands to reason it can go down 8% for no particular reason too