Member Info for the_Chuz

"Get out boys. ETF news out?"

How can you be promoting 300p and upto 500p one day then the next day telling people to get out because btc has fallen 6%.

If you managed to stay in you will become a little more battle hardened and less emotional. In the last decent run we had 30% swings, fire and brine stone one hour and utopia the next.

At leaf pretend you've been in the game a while and suck it up otherwise you won't have any money left, buying highs and selling lows it's a sure way to go skint.

"BTC now $45.5K!

Its about to go"

And so it did... 44,855 at the moment.

There really isn't much point looking at the micro movements, as we know when btc moves it moves, could be up could be down but it's lumpy and jumps or falls.

Unless you are trading the intraday then there's not much point staring at the price unless you are trying to emotional condition yourself.

That bei g said, ain't nothing else to talk about that hasn't already been discussed ha

"Some serious buying going on here. Hasn’t seen this many trades in such short order since the £3 days"

Buys?

I suppose every seller needs a buyer

Cleanspark / RIOT in a sell off from pre market.. Things never go as expected. Thought it would be an easy +20% today.. Might even go red at this rate ha

"I will sell if I get to breakeven as I'm not going to pay the price again for being greedy and it would also be the first time I have been caught in a sinking business and not gone down with the ship. That would be a sweeter 'victory' to me than any gain on a share!"

Wide move I reckon, although I think we are in for a pullback very soon.

I am planning (might change) to sell most of anything crypto I have on etf news.. Once we have the news there will be a lull before the halving, it will take a while for the etf's to get thier marketing and money flows coming in, it won't be instant so I think it will be the time for the - 30% retracement before building strong through the rest of 2024.

I know alot of others also think the same which is the scary bit because if we all think it then it's not going to play out that way.

I didn't see the end of year dump for the miners, maybe today we get back lost of the loss from then but I was expecting 20% on top of where we were before the dump, so I've already had to adjust expextations.

I think we are close the point of taken some mk ey off the table to preserve gains, that being said, i also think by the middle of 2024 the etf magic will start working so could just hold.

Take the money and run.

"In the meantime nobody can deny that it's an exciting ride up and who knows I may even end up in profit here at last :-)"

I can't hold onto a loss for that long, I admire your stubornous, i switched out the the US miners quite a while ago.

The problem with these boards it's that it can influence the decisions of others in a negative and sometimes those folks are the least able to take the loss where the £500 or a £1000 invested is the difference between going on holiday with the kids or kicking yourself for blowing a grand (not mocking anyone there BTW, I've been in that situation in my younger years so it's from experience).

All to often you get posters on the boards who put fantasies of riches in peoples minds without any credible way of achieving it.

If someone was to state 300p for argo and then produced some figures on how it could be achieved I've all ears but a 300p target just because it's 10x from here is daft.

Now question is @Hexam, are you going to sell if you get to break even or push it a bit to atleast get a 10% return for your troubles?

"Can't short on IG - GL."

Havn't been able to short argo on ig for months (maybe longer)

"I agree. I personally think this goes over 500p."

Remember to manage your expectations.

When Argo was much higher in the past we had Helios, NASDAQ listing and a major bull market as significant tail winds.

We now have no Helios, the listing is done and we have many many more shares in issue.

Please look at the previous market cap and use that as a reference (to exclude share qty) then discount Helios (over 100mil) then add the debt (70 ish mil).

Look at the E/H from back when it was high and look at current E/H then look at the difficulty level from them to know.

It is not the same company it once was and the macro economic factors are differnt.

I don't want to pee on the parade, just trying to give some perspective.

"about a year ago due to concerns of going into bankruptcy"

I personally still thing it's a slow and grinding death for Argo but if the share price can get up a bit and positive sentiment flood back in the Argo might be able to do a substantial share issue to get it out of a rut, probably through Galaxy on extortionate terms but they will have to take what they can get.

Argo needs to buy some modern machines and alot of them

Failing that it's a slow and grinding death.

I've just had to sell a big chunk of tesla to "buy the Dip" in cleanspark. If needs be Ill buy more at 10 then more at 9.

Such a shame as I really wanted my big bag of tesla for the first week of Jan as I think they will do well but a 15% drop on no news has to be bought. I'll pay you back later Tessey I promise haha

The US miners are getting smashed, I saw the fall ping up on some of my holdings and though that btc must be having a big dump and going to 41k but no, btc slightly up. The manipulation is sickening but it's the game we are in

"Chuz, what’s your prediction for the Bitcoin high for this bull cycle (up to and including end of 2025)"

I reckon 80 - 120k, which I know is a lot lower than some predict with inflows from etf.

Now that the tutes are going to be getting involved in a big way I just can't see retail being handed a big profit, I've got a nagging feeling that things arnt going to go how everyone is expecting it to.

Even with my balls of steel and knowing that it's probable I think I will be shaken out before the real money is made.

Who knows though, we've never had this type of situation with any asssest before.

"but what I’m expecting is an initial spike up to the 48k-50k level, followed by some sell off."

That's exactly what I'm thinking, if we hit 49 ish on a spike I'm selling everything crypto and having a breather. There's that 39k dark cloud that we need to sort out.

My game plan, sell at 49k, buy back in within a few weeks at 39k.. I mean what can go wrong

Anyone can buy pretty much anything crypto related and make money at the moment, it is the rising tide that lifts all boats.

The problem will be the selling points, how to sell, when to sell ect. Ironically, most people will give back most of thier gains by the end of the run.

I liken it to the guy in the pub who keeps feeding the slot machine, wins £20 then pumps it all back in, maybe wins a fiver and puts it all back in, 15 mins later he has nothing buts it's OK he "had a good time"

Like the guy in the betting shop who wins big and then keeps betting until it's all gone.

You've got to get some money back into your pocket and away from crypto when the time is right, when is the time right? No one actually knows, so make sure you are putting something back into your pocket when your position allows it i.e. If it doubles sell half, keep half of that and reinvest the rest or whatever works for you.

Yes you won't ride the wave to the peak with all bags packed and you'll be the person who sold too soon, but atleast you'll have some bags at the end of the journey.

I must admit I am very suprised to see argo at 30p, I think there must be a bit of fomoing happening as I just cannot see value at 30p, all I can see is the setup for a massive dilution.

If they do manage to pull of a really big equity raise they might be in with a chance of survival. It will hurt existing shareholders but will be good for the company going forwards.

If the US miners maintain thier 8% ish loss today I would expect gains here to get wiped out this afternoon, careful as she goes.

How is this less down than btc itself haha.. There be some dark magic afoot

Had to take a bit more cleanspark out, another 20% off the table, I'm just syphoning off some profit at any spike around 20%. Puts me at around the same balance as a week or so ago but with nearly enough out foe the new car.

In my head it risk management in reality I just don't want to watch it all dissappear on a big sell off and then have to explain why she can't have a new car.

I'm thinking rug pull to low 39k

Yea but I'll end up fomo and put it all back in and lose it haha.

These next 3 - 12 months have the potential to change lives financially if only we play it right, sell to soon and it was a nice ride, maybe a ranger over, hold on and sell to late and it's a pizza. Time it right and it's early retirement.

"Should be self fulfilling now, btc rises mara shorts give up, still around 25 % short interest, we lose even 6/7 percent shorters thats massive to us and a big big run could happen not saying short squeeze but definitely a re-rate!"

Interesting times for sure.. I've got chunks of Mara, Riot and cleanspark, all doing well at the moment with cleanspark outperforming. I imagine bitfarm is up next for some pretty big runs, (nearly bought at 1.6 the other day but ya know, it looked a bit pricey haha)

Riot seems to be lagging behind a touch so I would imagine it will run soon enough.

Mara is a beast but an expensive beast, I think it will be looking to asset strip some of the small ones after the halving has done its damage.

42k btc is a danger zone for pull back, but then we are all expecting it so it won't happen