Member Info for the_Chuz

"I estimate Mara could potentially report a circa 400 mil profit for the year if they do this (guesstimate)"

Im most likely going to drop half my clsk to rotate into mara for the earnings report. I keep wanting to go cash waiting for this elusive drop but just can't bring myself to do it.. That will be the greed part of the market psyche

"Argo, but the company took various decisions and actions of which almost all went bad (due to bad luck, inexperience/poor judgement, lack of preparation, greed, etc)."

And gawd dayum swimming pools!

Just a little noise and a little selling from Greyscale most likely I think that have around 1.5 billion ish to sell off..

These are the buying days not the selling days, it's why it's important to make sure you have a bit of cash ready.

I've just bought more cleanspark (I'm really overweight with them now) which I intend on returning to cash on the bounce.. I've also just gone 10x on a decent size Solana position.

Maybe it goes down more and I'll have to add a bit more but maybe it pops back to life.

My rule these days is to only buy on a red day so I'm only allowed more bites when it's days like today.

BTC has had me wrongfooted too many times in the last cycle, not this time. It's early retirement or bankruptcy court.

"Bitcoin still holding up and Argo going down.

So confused."

Its because it's a bit shi*te.

I'm getting bit concerned with the miners seeming to pull back when btc is holding well.. Sometimes the miners preceed the dump.

I think you can tell those of us that have been through this before, hapoy with the rises but can't become euphoric because we know the dump is coming, we also know that when it dumps it can be brutal like 20-40%.

I know folks things are differnt with the etf's which concerns me. The holders of the etf can sell just as quickly as they buy, if we get a reasonable sell off I would expect a good chunk of etf holders to do a bit of profit taking.. Which could be one of the most spectacular dumps we've ever seen.. It would be enough to make new comers never want to touch crypto again.

My profits are like sitting under the sword of damocles.

I am actually turning fearful amist this rise (not bearish as we are good in the long run, maybe not the miners though)

"Where are the derampers? i bet they all sold out!"

I think they are just letting people have there moment in the sun.

There are too many negatives to make this an investment.

A rising tide raises all boats, just understand what your buying into and what the industry is like for churn and you might be OK (I. E. Do the okey cokey and get in and out)

"Somebody might buy it for the swimming pool."

I knew I detected a dusturbance in the force, felt compelled to check in on the forum only to find talk of my pet hate swimming pool.

It annoyed me then and it still annoys me now

"Certainly not the momentum buildng RNS they needed as we draw closer to April and the halving."

To be honest, I'm thinking more and more that miners in general are a duff thing to invest in. When the halving is done the income is cut in half which needs to be offset by a significant increase in btc price. I'm not expecting that sort of price increase so really the miners will just make less money.

Eventually some miners will collapse which should lower the network rate but that's not happening at the moment, the nwtwork hashrate increase is exploding going into the halving, a combination of newer machines and bigger players (like nations) getting involved.

BTC is genius I'm just not so the miners are in anyway a sustainable endeavour. Eventually I think the likes of Blackrock will fork it to proof of stake and then we are done.

Alot.. They can keep up the current selling pressure for 30 days then they have no btc left.. So anywhere from a couple of days to a couple of weeks left.

I think most people were expecting either a big swing up or down when the etf news was released. Once again the market stuffed everyone by taking option 3... Flat.

This is leading to a painful bleed out for the miners and putting doubt into a lot of peoples minds about if its worth holding miners now.

Hopefully things will settle down in a few weeks but who knows now that Blackrock and the rest of them are orchastraying it all from within.

"Argo Blockchain at 20.40p - with tonights BTC ETF approval this will gap up pre trading tomorrow morning, expecting a gap up to 26p open and rise to 40p+ Load up before trading closes today"

Unless it's sell the news then Argo with gap down

Atleast Argo should get some accidental share buys with the Ark Invest ticker being ARKB and argo being ARBK

Due to its size and expected use its more like a 'keep the lights on' raise to me. The only way I see out of it for argo is to smash the current shareholders and get more hash, anything else is a low and painful grind down.

BTC price might save the day for now but when the dust settles they have the same issues. They had thier chance with nasdaq listing and Helios but timing was against them. Sorting out swimming pools just doesn't cut it

Urrghh working capital and general expenssis

"Or it all tanks because someone finds an undiscovered bug in the code, or satoshi is revealed as gensler.."

Or Satoshi buys 27 btc from binance and sticks them in his wallet.. As per what's just happened, OK maybe not satoshi buying them but someone has, which means if it's mot him/her/them then they just lost a million dollars..

Cleanspark had just announced a 500mil shelf offering, it's things like thst which mess up my plans sbout selling with etf news. It was 13+ a couple of weeks ago now looking at 9 or even 8.

The whole crypto games is about timing, and if your exit strategy is based around timing then the market has an great way of messing it up for you.

"If it turns out to be possible, people will move money away from miners (and MSTR) into one of them IMHO."

I think so too, there will be fees associated with the etf so for me it would be pure btc as the best option to hold... But I can't buy btc in my SIPP so I personally would buy the SIPP into the etf.

"However, if the ETF's are not ISA-able, then I agree MSTR is a good '2nd best' position after everything settles."

Not sure if it's the case with other brokers but I have a SIPP and ISA with HL and I hold US miners in both

"or is that the logic anyway behind what you are thinking of doing Chuz?"

My initial thoughts are short term, pump on news, maybe a couple of days then it dropping either to 39k or 32k, which will seem like a massive fall for those on the pump.

I then think we kick around for a few months after the halving until we see money flow into the etf's. This will bring in massive money from traditional finance which will pump btc to silly heights.

The miners will have to exist to maintain the network, the difficulty, halving, fees and finite supply is genius. As miners go under the difficulty adjusts, the fees will also adjust to make miners profitable.

If I was looking 10 years out I would hold Riot/Mara/Cleanspark like I currently do and ride the waves but I'm looking for a 18month exist and pivot away from crypto (with a stash of btc of course) and get into property so I can set something up for my girls.

Short term we will be all over the place high and low, Etf's I belive will give the miners a bloody nose until they find thier equilibrium.

Or it all tanks because someone finds an undiscovered bug in the code, or satoshi is revealed as gensler and it's all some massive ploy to fight the Chinese or so either random nonsense that makes us all look daft.

If it is approved and we get a decent miner pump I intend on dropping atleast 60% of all my mining stock, wait for it to settle then get back in.

I think a lot are thinking the same which concerns me.