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I think most people were expecting either a big swing up or down when the etf news was released. Once again the market stuffed everyone by taking option 3... Flat.
This is leading to a painful bleed out for the miners and putting doubt into a lot of peoples minds about if its worth holding miners now.
Hopefully things will settle down in a few weeks but who knows now that Blackrock and the rest of them are orchastraying it all from within.
"Argo Blockchain at 20.40p - with tonights BTC ETF approval this will gap up pre trading tomorrow morning, expecting a gap up to 26p open and rise to 40p+ Load up before trading closes today"
Unless it's sell the news then Argo with gap down
Due to its size and expected use its more like a 'keep the lights on' raise to me. The only way I see out of it for argo is to smash the current shareholders and get more hash, anything else is a low and painful grind down.
BTC price might save the day for now but when the dust settles they have the same issues. They had thier chance with nasdaq listing and Helios but timing was against them. Sorting out swimming pools just doesn't cut it
"Or it all tanks because someone finds an undiscovered bug in the code, or satoshi is revealed as gensler.."
Or Satoshi buys 27 btc from binance and sticks them in his wallet.. As per what's just happened, OK maybe not satoshi buying them but someone has, which means if it's mot him/her/them then they just lost a million dollars..
Cleanspark had just announced a 500mil shelf offering, it's things like thst which mess up my plans sbout selling with etf news. It was 13+ a couple of weeks ago now looking at 9 or even 8.
The whole crypto games is about timing, and if your exit strategy is based around timing then the market has an great way of messing it up for you.
"If it turns out to be possible, people will move money away from miners (and MSTR) into one of them IMHO."
I think so too, there will be fees associated with the etf so for me it would be pure btc as the best option to hold... But I can't buy btc in my SIPP so I personally would buy the SIPP into the etf.
"However, if the ETF's are not ISA-able, then I agree MSTR is a good '2nd best' position after everything settles."
Not sure if it's the case with other brokers but I have a SIPP and ISA with HL and I hold US miners in both
"or is that the logic anyway behind what you are thinking of doing Chuz?"
My initial thoughts are short term, pump on news, maybe a couple of days then it dropping either to 39k or 32k, which will seem like a massive fall for those on the pump.
I then think we kick around for a few months after the halving until we see money flow into the etf's. This will bring in massive money from traditional finance which will pump btc to silly heights.
The miners will have to exist to maintain the network, the difficulty, halving, fees and finite supply is genius. As miners go under the difficulty adjusts, the fees will also adjust to make miners profitable.
If I was looking 10 years out I would hold Riot/Mara/Cleanspark like I currently do and ride the waves but I'm looking for a 18month exist and pivot away from crypto (with a stash of btc of course) and get into property so I can set something up for my girls.
Short term we will be all over the place high and low, Etf's I belive will give the miners a bloody nose until they find thier equilibrium.
Or it all tanks because someone finds an undiscovered bug in the code, or satoshi is revealed as gensler and it's all some massive ploy to fight the Chinese or so either random nonsense that makes us all look daft.
If it is approved and we get a decent miner pump I intend on dropping atleast 60% of all my mining stock, wait for it to settle then get back in.
I think a lot are thinking the same which concerns me.
"Get out boys. ETF news out?"
How can you be promoting 300p and upto 500p one day then the next day telling people to get out because btc has fallen 6%.
If you managed to stay in you will become a little more battle hardened and less emotional. In the last decent run we had 30% swings, fire and brine stone one hour and utopia the next.
At leaf pretend you've been in the game a while and suck it up otherwise you won't have any money left, buying highs and selling lows it's a sure way to go skint.
"BTC now $45.5K!
Its about to go"
And so it did... 44,855 at the moment.
There really isn't much point looking at the micro movements, as we know when btc moves it moves, could be up could be down but it's lumpy and jumps or falls.
Unless you are trading the intraday then there's not much point staring at the price unless you are trying to emotional condition yourself.
That bei g said, ain't nothing else to talk about that hasn't already been discussed ha
"I will sell if I get to breakeven as I'm not going to pay the price again for being greedy and it would also be the first time I have been caught in a sinking business and not gone down with the ship. That would be a sweeter 'victory' to me than any gain on a share!"
Wide move I reckon, although I think we are in for a pullback very soon.
I am planning (might change) to sell most of anything crypto I have on etf news.. Once we have the news there will be a lull before the halving, it will take a while for the etf's to get thier marketing and money flows coming in, it won't be instant so I think it will be the time for the - 30% retracement before building strong through the rest of 2024.
I know alot of others also think the same which is the scary bit because if we all think it then it's not going to play out that way.
I didn't see the end of year dump for the miners, maybe today we get back lost of the loss from then but I was expecting 20% on top of where we were before the dump, so I've already had to adjust expextations.
I think we are close the point of taken some mk ey off the table to preserve gains, that being said, i also think by the middle of 2024 the etf magic will start working so could just hold.
Take the money and run.
"In the meantime nobody can deny that it's an exciting ride up and who knows I may even end up in profit here at last :-)"
I can't hold onto a loss for that long, I admire your stubornous, i switched out the the US miners quite a while ago.
The problem with these boards it's that it can influence the decisions of others in a negative and sometimes those folks are the least able to take the loss where the £500 or a £1000 invested is the difference between going on holiday with the kids or kicking yourself for blowing a grand (not mocking anyone there BTW, I've been in that situation in my younger years so it's from experience).
All to often you get posters on the boards who put fantasies of riches in peoples minds without any credible way of achieving it.
If someone was to state 300p for argo and then produced some figures on how it could be achieved I've all ears but a 300p target just because it's 10x from here is daft.
Now question is @Hexam, are you going to sell if you get to break even or push it a bit to atleast get a 10% return for your troubles?
"I agree. I personally think this goes over 500p."
Remember to manage your expectations.
When Argo was much higher in the past we had Helios, NASDAQ listing and a major bull market as significant tail winds.
We now have no Helios, the listing is done and we have many many more shares in issue.
Please look at the previous market cap and use that as a reference (to exclude share qty) then discount Helios (over 100mil) then add the debt (70 ish mil).
Look at the E/H from back when it was high and look at current E/H then look at the difficulty level from them to know.
It is not the same company it once was and the macro economic factors are differnt.
I don't want to pee on the parade, just trying to give some perspective.
"about a year ago due to concerns of going into bankruptcy"
I personally still thing it's a slow and grinding death for Argo but if the share price can get up a bit and positive sentiment flood back in the Argo might be able to do a substantial share issue to get it out of a rut, probably through Galaxy on extortionate terms but they will have to take what they can get.
Argo needs to buy some modern machines and alot of them
Failing that it's a slow and grinding death.