RE: My thoughts on what's been posted since I was last here:12 Jan 2026 13:41
I agree with the POV that OCP are holding the cards, and will play the hand. I do not believe that OCP are in any 'rush' to settle, and are willing to play a long waiting game.
Potash fertiliser prices rose significantly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which at the time was a large producer. No end in sight to that conflict, although USA will not supply further monies to buy military hardware, and basically has given Putin the 'go ahead' to 'win' the conflict in the next 6 months. This will only change if Eu decides, with a large monetary investment, to supply Ukraine with all it needs. Doubtful. The main problem then will be if USA is willing to sell Eu arms.? IMHO, what is needed for Ukraine, and maybe The World, to survive, is for the Democrat party in USA, to gain enough seats in the November mid-term elections to win both houses. Trump would be impeached, and I believe there are sufficient numbers of Republicans, who would want Trump out, and a new path forward, more in line with Republican philosophy, rather than the war mongering Empire building, of a Malignant Narcissist. Apols for the 'rant'. So, one way or 't'other, I believe the conflict will end this year. This will bring more fertiliser to market, and Brasil has a new Govt policy for 'fertiliser' exploration, and wants to be self sufficient. OCP are obviously aware of this, and the probability that MOP prices will fall, and thus reduce the NAV of the Khemisett mine. A lot of conjecture, but everything is possible with a mad man in the White House.