RE: 47p30 Apr 2026 14:16
The timeline has already been set out. Expect a decision early '27.
47 p, like any other estimate is a guess. If I were an 'arbitrator', the first thing I would want know from the litigator, is how much, in real terms has been spent by it to date. It is a long way from a B£. Future profitability might come into the equation, and might not. I am not familiar with other cases under similar circumstances, and so do not know if future profits can be accommodated in the decision. I have previously made my position on why M Govt refused consent, and in a nutshell, it is to seize the asset, backed up legally, by the fact that EML did not properly address the water supply situation in a Country where drought is serious problem. If I were a betting man, and I am, since I am here invested, I would put the 'award' nearer to 10p per share, which would give a MC of about £140M, which I suspect is more than EML has spent to adte on trying to open a mine. One could trawl through every PnL account and find the actual amount invested, which I am not inclined to do. 99IC posted thsi copied below;
'Given that 1. EML's funders (for the arbitration) have a good record picking winnable cases and 2. The Arbiters are all top class (so little chance of a crazy result), there must be a high chance that they will advise Morocco that they will not win'.
I believe the 'funding company' is Litigation Capital' which has seen it's sp crater from c£1.20 a couple of years ago to 4.5 p now. It has, in the last few days, reported another 'lost' case., and has been at the centre of a few 'scandals'.