Hi JP, in your post you listed many delays and said, unfathomably, that you thought there was a reason for it, and I am assuming that the reason would be for the benefit of it's SH's.? There has certainly been enough time since those fiascos for the reason to have developed into something tangible. There is a very simple reason, and it's the same one as why we are here at this sp, and with no drilling taking place. The Failure is out of his depth and has been for some time, and I would allege, is simply on a 'fill your boots' sabbatical. When the wage bill is being reduced, from Aug. I believe, it is based on the aggregate company wage bill, and with the redundancies that were announced, The Failure will probably not miss out much on ' having his nose in the trough'.
At the time of T10 drill, when needed equipment was all over The World, with the exception of Morocco, The Failure disciples brokered the idea of a 'reason', since they could not countenance that their hero was a numpty. The Failure is delaying because there are 'behind the scenes' negotiations taking place', etc, etc,. You have to laugh, and these disciples know who they are, but will never admit that they got it wrong, somewhat like their hero. Get him out and a true OnG pro. in his place, and move on from this disuster,
'Sorry for the poor maths. I thought if 47.5% of something is worth £1 billion then the whole must be worth approximately £2 billion. What is it worth then?'
That is correct, but that was not the point in question, which was the worth to SOU SH as a price per share, which from my former post is a quid, and yours is something less than 50p. If ONHYM are prevented by law, or any other reason from selling their 25% of The LA, then SOU and SCHL would divide ( I assume, if no caveats in place with say different) the £2.5B ) on a c63.5%; 36.5% basis, giving ea SOU share a value of c£1.55., and about £900K to SCHL.
You had yr adenoids removed.
If a wife divorces her partner, the marriage has failed ie is a failure, although it is undoubtedly a real World situation. Remember Partridge, yr 1:1 is in Maths, not English Language. The 99, 98 p is a pedantic point ( plse refer answer above). In monetary parlance, a figure would normally be quantified, since how does one judge the result. I apologise in not saying 'about a quid', which would cover yr 99. and 98p 'I'm a clever Dick' comment. I would suggest 95-105 is about. thus 94p would be failure, although, an acceptable failure. Your 25p LE is an absolute failure, and of course would be a reality. Plse stick to maths and not The English Language.
Partridge, if you want to know the derivation of c£1.50+ to SOU, and hence about
Addendum. Yr post;
'£1 a share represents approximately £2 billion for the Eastern Morocco portfolio. That's $2.5 billion. And that's failure?'
If you read more carefully, posters suggested anything below a quid would be a failure. Yr 1:1 Hnrs obviously doesn't differentiate between 1 and below 1 which is a major problem in maths. lol
Your cunning maths is about as good as Baldricks plans.
Can ONHYM sell their 25% share - don't think so
As I posted below, is it for certain that SCHL will sell their 27.5%. Caveats an all.
So there could be an offer of c£1.1 B for SOU shares, which equate to c £1 ps.
Must do better Partridge.
SO, you posted;
'Without knowing the offer price, it's impossible to make that decision.'
When we are told of the offer price, it may be too late. I believe when (if) a RNS is released, it will be a 'recommended' offer. Before The Failure released the RNS he would have got OGIF and II's 'on board'., and we all know how apathetic PI's are about voting, even on important decisions. That would mean a n other co turning the drill bit, and I know how I would feel if some major discoveries were reported, whilst The Failure was in 'the counting house, counting out his money'. I see as anything below a quid per share as a failure. I am on record as saying that I think an offer per Sou share of about 50p is realistic. Valuing The Horst at c15p, and other assets, at the difference. This means a bidder would be paying about £350-400M for 'The Potential' of other assets, to incl. SM. The problem with this scenario as I see it, is SCHL and their 27.5% of The License area ( excl. SM). Would a bidder want SCHL as a partner, or would it have to buy their holding as well. This is a Red Flag for me. With caveats with SCHL already in place, it is not a straightforward sale. These caveats I believe have been alluded to by posters from RNS's, although I cannot personally remember reading them.
you would accept this, and I'm assuming this would be at a cash loss to you. Would you not be prepared to wait and have further drilling done in all areas, led by a more competent leader, and def. an OnG person, say a minimum of 6 drills. IF 2 or 3 are successful we know what that will do to the sp. It is the prime objective of a CEO to maximise SH value, not for the few who may still have averages below current sp ( only newbies I would suggest), but for the many. With the License Area we have, and the taxation benefits, I do not believe 35p accurately assesses the POTENTIAL. You have to hand it to The Failure, he has got previously disciples who believed in '4 figures wont cut it' now willing to accept 35p. Job well done for him.
SO. Thnx yr reply as pasted below;
'Testpack- The AGM attendees were advised as such. JJ posted on the last FSC that the 'marketing' process was data room>management presentation>bids. You can draw your own conclusions from that.'
in short, we are to guess that bids have been received, and as N4a£ suggests, no acceptable bids have been received.
Also, we have to be mindful of the 'spin' element from BOD members, in following the lead of The Failure. Tell the PI's what they want to hear. It is highly likely that no bids have been received. Of course, this puts into perspective KTtF comments, about research, which is believe all that he is told by a self confessed failue. Wonderful. Congratulations. Or are you going to prove that I do not research and show me evidence of any bids received, or, as I suspect, you will decline under more abusive posts. LOL
SO. The last para: of yr. 8.39 post this am read'
'We've made presentations wh0s, so there clearly are interested parties. Interested enough to make an acceptable offer is of course a different matter.'
How do you know that SOU has made presentations?
I would like to 2nd the comments made by Trellis re; The Failure's puppet crass post. He who has enjoyed the largesse of The Failures company credit card, both at intimate and general events, and suggest the walk is a very long one, with many boozing stations, and that it takes months, say 12-18. Bye
'Presumably, SOU are inviting an offer for the whole of Tendrara, not just SOU's share of it?
Is SOU actually paying for the marketing of the other two parties' shares too?'
When did SCHL and ONHYM buy SOU shares. As far as I am aware, both of those parties own a % of The License area. ONHYM 25%, SCHL 27.5% given to them by The Failure for 'coming on board', and SOU retain 47.5%. Of course, there may be covenants in place with both ONHYM and SCHL in the event SOU wish to sell their %age of The License area, but I think it unrealistic that a third party can influence the sale of SOU shares. Need to read Articles of Association. A prospective buyer will have to weigh up if it wants to bid for both SOU and SCHL % of the LA ( I believe ONHYM have to retain their 25%). A major , I would have thought, would not want SCHL involved. Only an opinion.
Is SOU actually paying for the marketing of the other two parties' shares too? , excluding SM. ONHYM own 25% The License area
no-one has an answer to what is an disingenuous investor, so can we please face facts, in that if a person has any cash tied up in SOU shares, they will want to see a profitable return. The angst that is shown by these genuine investors, such as me, is with the uber-ramping of The Failure, and then we are told it was only 'marketing the company'. Comments that he made , eg.' I can pick up the fone and sell the company', are total BS. It is his MO of telling PI's what they want to hear. The only benefit of this sad situation is that crude posts now only refer to his fav, pastime of boozing, with or without a scenic view, and his literary pastime , and thankfully no comments on the 'dynamic'' Failure or what Lambo he will buy. All off topic, but gets no admonishment. V strange. He is of course though, still doing The Failures bidding with his £2-3 LE price prediction. lol.
SO wants to know what my NAV guestimate is. He/she may not recall my price / TCF of gas in ground was about 37p, when The Failure was extolling £1.50, later upped by crude to over £1.70 with OGIF deal ( lol). we have about 1/3 TCF , so NAV on that about 12p by my reckoning. What is the values of SM, the value of seismic we have performed, the value of our 47.5% interest in the license area? With The Failures drilling programme , which confirmed previous drill results at SM, then nothing else done there. The Failure told us there is up to 10TCF there. At this point in time, without a CPR, no-one has a clue whats there. He will have a job and a half trying to convince experience OnG people that its worth 100 m never mind a billion. Whats in Anoule?, anyone like to hazard a guess? I know one way to find out, and its #letthedrillbitdothetalking.
I'm always tickled by this addendum. Perhaps someone can tell me what a disingenuous investor is?
I'm also tickled by seaton, the most recent disciple to the fold. His comments that let the BOD get on with their job, and in the last post he says that he thinks the Moroccan Govt is calling the shots. In business circles seaton that means that The Failure has lost credibility. And I will re-iterate , the prime motive of a CEO is to maximise SH value. Can anyone tell me how this will be achieved with the current plan? Expectations now have been drastically reduced, Even SG is now talking at least50p for LE. When he gets down to at least 10P, he will have all bases covered.The Failure has already admitted defeat by abandoning his ' fully funded 3 well drill programme'. The way to maximise SH value is to raise funds and drill, inc. SM. If this takes 12-18 months, so be it, We may still be here in 12-18 months with the present plan, while The Failure gives us more BS disguised as ' marketing The Company', and drawing his inflated salary. Time to go and get a real OnG person in charge to take us forward.
I never said I like this stock, I said it has excellent products. Please read more carefully. I always believe there are two sides to a story - there are the rampers, and the de-rampers. I am neither .You are probably a person that likes to be told what you want to hear. I do draw attention to red flags so that people who have not done diligent research, like you , are aware of facts before making investment decisions. This stock, because of the extremely low free float, will have substantial movements on relatively small transactions, so any good news will have a v g positive effect on the sp. The BOD have kicked the can down the road on debt repayment 'til end 2020. I have bought back into this stock since there are plenty of small investors who will purchase PPS when good orders arrive, and they will arrive. I shall be selling again well before end 2020 when S+++ hits fan.
I held for a few years and sold out at 35p a month or so ago, after the significant rises. There are obviously some fairly large players in the FC market, and their prices always have future profit built in. I am not in any of them at present. I am looking at a UK mfr, which is private at moment, but one can invest an amount in the company. Will def. go public in the next year or so. I rarely give advice on what share to sell or buy, but if you do your own Google research on UK companies, you will come across it. Toneman suggest in 10-15 years all ICE vehicles will be replaced by FC vehicles. Guaranteed not to, for many reasons. As more and more EV's emerge in the market, the POO ( and NG) will plummet. 60% of all refined oil goes to transport market. When this happens, obviously the Petroleum industry will fight back, producing more efficient ICE, and much cheaper than EV's. There is an excellent chance all diesel ICE will be banned in Eu , USA and possibly China by 2030. I would like them all banned next year, I live in a large City overseas, where eating and drinking Al Fresco is the norm, usually by a main road. I stopped smoking cigs 5 years ago, but still feel I am getting through 3 or 4 packs a week. Going back to Toneman saying that £100m T/O for PPS will be very achievable in 10 years, when sales start to approach those levels Worldwide, there will be much bigger and better mfrs than a 92% owned Public company. All IMHO of course.
There is long term, then there is long term. I hope you are a youngish person. I have mailed the CFO for timelines on debt re-payment ( 8 weeks ago), and have not received a reply. I see it this way with the Red Flags.
1) debt. Will be £100m by YE. Income at present < £1m pa. I am going to assume that over a period of 10 years ( some may call this LT), the income averages £50M pa ( a 5000% increase on present). Assume a 15% EBITDA ( well above the industry average), This will give us £7.5m pa EBITDA. About the same rate as which the debt is increasing. If all this EBITDA ( not possible, since further funding required for keeping the business on-going), thats c14 yrs to re-pay debt. I know there are assumptions, but the company has competition in all its markets.
2) Ownership. Nahab has 92% of issued share capital. He can take this companu private any time he wishes. Forget the sp at the time. Hr can pay fair market value, and that, with £100m debt is measured in a few pence per share. His brother, a major investor with cash, has the opportunity to transfer his debt re-payment into shares at 2p each. This would flood the market with an additional 400m shares. If Nahab went private, all those interest re-payments, instead of benefitting SH in the long, long term, would provide him and his family with a legacy many would like to enjoy.
Please feel free to tell me why you think it's such a rosy family business. And as for selling the company ( The optimistic one sees Siemans as a likely candidate, tell me a selling price with £100m of debt.? Bet you don't.
The Company already has debt which will approach $100M by year end. ( source - RNS). It is very strange that the Company has now gone external to finance this current order when it already has a debt facility with Cleantech in place. ! There is no mention of terms of the loan, which again I find strange. The Company has great products in a game changing industry, however, the amount of debt, and the terms, that it carries, means it will be a very long time before the SH see profit from this company. If you have done your research, you will also see another Red Flag, in that Nahib owns 92% of the issued shares!! Plse see my earlier posts re; the terms of loans. GL
I also agree that the asset is large. The problem is that The Failure has not been able to quantify it through P1/P2 reserves, all but for 0.4TCF. He is on record as saying that it is for a n other, with deeper pockets, to realise the value. This is an admission of defeat for the head of an exploration company, and he has relinquished his number one objective as CEO of maximising SH value. In maximising his personal wealth, he has succeeded admirably. TE's 8, 9 and 10 have shown that the gas isn't everywhere, and that will have a huge detrimental factor to a LE price. We can, and have, only guess what is going to happen at SM, a 10TCF prospect. It is time for The Failure to go - now. Not in 12-18 weeks or whatever, when he comes out with his usual spin, that because of this, that and the other, I am recommending we accept an offer of eg. 15p a share. Let us get someone on board with the OnG skills to get SOU drilling further wells. The downside is we hit 2,3 4 further dusters and we only sell T5 Horst. Well, this is where we are at present folks. The upside is reading RNS's that we have hit gas in 2, 3 wells, and have had highly commercial flow rates. Remember how good that felt, and what it did to the sp. OK, this would take another 12 months. Remember, we wouldn't have the mess of waiting for 'vital' components at the wellhead with a competent CEO. Get mailing him now, asking for a clear roadmap of his intentions ( remember, he works for us, and we own 60% of the company) going forward to maximise SH value, or asking him to resign so that a n other can try where he has failed.
If indeed The Failure is a numpty as your post alluded to, then it would be absolutely imperative that a new CEO be appointed to lead SOU into either the selling process, or my preferred option, to maximise (potentially) the asset value, by further drilling. We def. do not need a numpty doing either of these.
I'm afraid Z-cars that your logic is misguided. I quote, ' If the company is being sold in the next few weeks, why do we need a Q3 Presentation?'. Well very simply, because The Failure has said it will be up soon. That's from 2 posters who have contacted him. Although I must add, since it comes from The Failure with his record on getting things done on time, that this probably means 12-18 months, Hope the delay is that The Chairman is actively seeking a new CEO to take us forward, and unlock our true potential.