Member Info for TerryM1

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Gas-Prices-Set-for-a-Breakout-in-2025.html

This was always the danger of allocating shares instead of cash (as I stated when these deals were done) as DEC did not have the cash and obviously Crescent Pass did not really want the shares but had to accept them to get the deal done, will hold price back for a time as others may well join in the sell off. It may be a good deal for other reasons but it diluted the shares, dropped the SP as these shares are being sold and increased debt.

Also prevented more BBs as cash has gone.

PDT Partners LLC lifted its stake in Diversified Energy Company PLC (NYSE:DEC - Free Report) by 231.4% in the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 45,386 shares of the company's stock after purchasing an additional 31,690 shares during the quarter. PDT Partners LLC owned about 0.09% of Diversified Energy worth $516,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

Https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/pdt-partners-llc-purchases-31690-shares-of-diversified-energy-company-plc-nysedec-2024-12-03/

Doubt much bounce today for FTSE250 entry, the buying has already taken place and may see a drop (hope not) as profits taken but this is good news, need to break £13 but can't see going much higher as will be help back but dividend yield fixed for 3 years and lack of BBs as this now is becoming the norm for O&G companies to counteract ESG sell off. Best hope is a special dividend but no holding my breath.

Sell price now 7.6551p up from a low of 7.25p, hopefully this is the long awaited turn around.

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-stocks-thrive-trumps-pro-200000825.html

President-elect Donald Trump’s return to office promises a significant shift in the U.S. energy landscape, focusing on reviving the liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) sector. This ambitious agenda aims to reverse policies implemented by President Biden, whose LNG permit moratorium came under heavy scrutiny from industry leaders and lawmakers alike. Biden's pause, justified by economic and environmental studies, posed a question mark over long-term U.S. energy dominance.

Trump’s administration plans to eliminate this moratorium immediately, bolstering LNG infrastructure through deregulation and fast-tracked permits. Major U.S. LNG exporters, including Cheniere Energy LNG, Shell SHEL and Chevron CVX, are poised to benefit significantly from this strategy.

Damienmoore

I take your point and there are always risks but for me I do not see much chance of a rise in interest rates that would exceed rental yields which will be increasing year on year. However buying more property (as they have recently) rather than reducing debt does add additional risk. In general lack of diversification is a risk but in SUPRs case these are with the large UK Supermarkets which are IMO unlikely to have issues paying rent and large out of town Supermarkets sites are in demand and very unlikely to have all but a few new ones built as demands increases due to growing population. In the event some of SUPR's site become vacant there is a very good chance these will be turned into housing developments increasing value.

Having said all that I am not intending to increase my holdings even though I have spare cash from REITs that have liquidated and as stated before this cash will mostly go into good ITs/REITs being forced in liquidation due to high discount to NAV. Some of my cash from BCPT was used to increase my position in API which will bring in (announced yesterday) a 1.2% profit and full capital back in around 6 weeks with more to follow, shares I bought earlier in API will give a lot more profit.

As you state it is worth listening to all opinions and each person must decide for themselves, I do like hearing from people with a good arguments like you which has different to view to myself, an echo chamber is of no use to anyone..

I can understand RRB being associated with shorters but not GG, no one would be associated the the constant dribble and insults he put out and anyone who read a few of his posts would see beyond and doubt he was talking rubbish and then either ignore him or counter his argument. However RRB could be also some sort of green nutter.

Looks to me like shorts are reducing again.

Guitarsolo

I personally don't see any problems with posting the number of shares bought, after all it is an anonymous board and puts the directors buys into focus, seen this people quoting number in share purchases and sales on many boards.

Like you I think the risk is relatively low and sooner or later we should see some capital gains and being paid well while we wait.

Investing in a stock is not just about the stock itself although it plays a major part, it is also about tax, macro risks especially to the sector of which political risks now are the greatest threat (take a look at O&G in the UK) and if your holdings or other people holdings can be used to leverage other investments along with the risk that entails.

In the REITs case the LDIs posed a significant risk i.e. pension funds used gilts as collateral for LDIs and put a lot of LDI cash into REITs (this was poorly regulated as Liz Truss found out). When gilts dropped by around 50% REITs also followed the drop due to yield gap but this was made worse because of fire sales of REITs to cover LDI liabilities, could not sell gilts due to government regulations on the mix of investments in pension funds.

IMO we are now in a situation where REITs are seriously undervalued with few friends, all REITs are trading below NAV which means they are unable to raise funds for expansion and have limited expansion by borrowing, in fact the situation is worse as the debts roll over the interest rate increases further limiting the scope for expansion. The one REIT I have that is not only producing a good yield but also decent capital gains in SREI because they have very low debt. For the foreseeable future this is unlikely to change therefore the IIs have decided the best way to limit losses is to fold REITs where the assets are usually sold at a discount but well above NAV, a lot of the property is going to PE which takes a longer term view. Sooner or later the property assets values will rise due to short supply, cost of building new units and issues with planning but it will take some time to feed through the system. Also there will be far fewer REITs counteracting the lack of cash that is being invested in the sector but investors will be well paid to wait (probably a long time) due to high yields unless of course the REIT is wound down.

For SUPR an issue is that official inflation is well below interest rates therefore SUPR is limited in rents rises (those rents rises linked to inflation) while having to pay increasing interest payments as debt is rolled over to higher rate, sooner or later this will correct.

Typos

Should read

(bank will hold them on my behalf and cannot take the cash out without banks permission)

I ran this past an International bank and there seems to be no problems.

It depends on the size of your portfolio and overall wealth to determine if 35,000 shares is a lot, you should look at the % of each company and then the % of the type of share i.e. REITS, O&G banks etc. I like DenFos have many times more than that and it it is my second biggest holding so for me 35,000 is a relative small number. The reason it is my second biggest holding is I do not consider there is much risk and is likely to keep paying inflation busting dividends for the foreseeable future. However will not be adding to it at present as I said before I think there are better opportunities with REITS in winddown, still getting good dividends and very likely decent capital gains in the short to medium term.

RDL and PSSDL (not REITS) wound down a time ago, EPIC gone except for some small change, should get all cash back from BCPT tomorrow, API should follow soon after, ASLI likely to start payments early 2025 and looking to take positions in AERS (not a REIT but in winddown) and RESI on dips as cash comes in.

Long term aim to to relocate aboard (do not like living in this country anymore) where there is no tax on dividends and hoping REITs can keep these high yields, plan is sell my UK property and use the proceeds to buy high yielding shares mostly REITS, buy a property on 100% mortgage at a fixed rate and use the shares as collateral (bank will hold them on my behalf and cannot take the cash out with banks permission). At present mortgage around 5%, yield on shares around 8%, mortgage likely to stay the same or fall with dividends likely to rise a small amount each year. May be a bit of a risk but yield gap makes it attractive, added advantage in countries like Portugal where I will have no tax on dividends but capital gains tax on a house which is reduced by the interest paid on the mortgage. I ran this past an Internal bank and there seems to be no problems. If all goes well REITs will play a large part of my financial and tax planning.

Nothing we don't know but getting some coverage

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-uk-penny-stocks-market-150444260.html

Futura Medical

Simply Wall St Financial Health Rating: ★★★★☆☆

Overview: Futura Medical plc researches, develops, and sells pharmaceutical and healthcare products for sexual health, with a market cap of £100.70 million.

Operations: The company generates revenue primarily from the development and commercialisation of MED3000, amounting to £8.40 million.

Market Cap: £100.7M

Futura Medical plc, with a market cap of £100.70 million, has shown significant revenue growth, reporting £7 million in sales for the first half of 2024 compared to £1.7 million the previous year. Despite being unprofitable with a negative return on equity of -48.05%, it has reduced losses over five years by 6.8% annually and remains debt-free. The company is trading significantly below its estimated fair value and analysts anticipate substantial stock price appreciation. However, it faces high volatility and less than one year of cash runway based on current free cash flow trends, posing potential financial challenges ahead.

Jim

"It was never unaffordable and I don't see why any investors would not be happy with an affordable, reliable 30% dividend."

This is correct so saying dropping the dividend by 2/3rds was required to increase the SP makes no sense to me, it is bit like a well funded company dropping the salary by 2/3rds for a advertised job to get more and better applicants believing high salaries put people off because some may believe it is unsustainable and will send the company bankrupt.

"DEC actually said the dividend was cut so they could allocate the money to acquisitions, debt reduction and BBs "

Well we got some sporadic and anaemic BBs, increase in Debt and a string of acquisitions and look where that got us.

"As for the change in dividend strategy, by the time they announced the change yield was over 30%"

It was not the time the change announced but the time the deal and dividend drop leaked (assuming it was leaked but this always seems to happen) that sent the SP diving, which as I said was around time as the short attack started.

"The change in dividend strategy was because a large dividend absolutely didn't work in holding the price up"

Well the trashing the dividend strategy does not seem to have worked very well.

The big drops in the SP and short attack coincided with the time Rusty was doing an acquisition that required cut to the dividend while stating it was safe, it was just us plebs were not informed until later while the SP continued to fall especially after each acquisitions, more debt kicking any chance of a dividend rise into the long grass along with a decent BB program.

JC01

Tend to agree, 2 things most Oil and Gas companies have at present is good yield and decent level of BBs to counteract ESG sell off, if DEC goes up much above £13 (unless £ drops a lot) the dividend is not that attractive as fixed for 3 years, also given DECs recent history of dividend cuts, share dilution, lies etc. BBs were sporadic and anaemic and now non existent even thought we we promised these. Debt very high fixed at high rate for a long time. We could improve if debt is reduced and Rusty keeps his fingers of the buy more wells button something psychological difficult for him.

Our best hope IMO is that HH keeps going up and stays above the $3s and this should eventually feed in to greater profit and hopefully some asset sales.