Member Info for TerryM1

Unfortunately SP done a U Turn and at all time low again, I hope the TU gives a date not too long off when this company will make money otherwise the SP will drift lower. This share will not start a recovery until we see some profits, good news jam tomorrow announcements does not cut it anymore, the shareholders are fed and getting out.

JC01

Agreed LSE will be a backwater exchange unless something it done like get rid of stamp duty but fat chance of that, not only FTSE declining but there will be a general exodus of companies especially high energy consumers, car manufactures hit by the £15,000 tax per vehicle if they do not sell enough eclectic cars and Oil and Gas companies. Last one out please turn the lights off, hang on they are not on, power cut as no wind.

However as I stated before the entry into the FTSE rise happens before entry as IIs are stocking up, see it before a number of times.

Culley01

Agree timing & execution were rubbish, but what she did was correct, a proper budget for growth (unlike this lot) and the facts speak for them selves. She tried to get the good stuff in first with the cuts to government to follow this gave an open goal for OBR, BOE etc to attack her and get her out before she had a chance to cut them and other departments, that is not allowed now the civil service run the UK.

"Terry... you've been reading some pretty mind blowing propaganda to genuinely think Truss had nothing to do with that dip..."

No just the information from the Bank of England and facts, what else do you think would happen when the BOE raised interest rates 0.25% a few days after FED raised them by 0.5%, started quantitative tightening (first time for a long time) and Andrew Bailey public attacked the budget which is not allowed to do in his job description. The BOE gave the green light to short the £ as it was they clearly wanted it to drop not only would they not support it but encourage the fall for political reasons.

Https://www.fool.co.uk/2024/12/09/a-10-dividend-yield-from-a-ftse-250-stock-with-a-forward-p-e-of-5-6/

Nothing we don't know and missing out on the sale and special dividend but getting some coverage.

Truss had very little to do with the dip, the BOE and others in government turned on her because she did not tow the line and also wanted to cut government jobs, could not have that, civil servants are in charge now. Also we are now in a similar dip with gilts yields up on where they were with Truss but inflation a lot less so should be lower.

The BOE have admitted they caused 2/3s of the dip on an obscure place on their website. The Irony of this is Kier Stammer is getting the same treatment from government workers but in a much smaller way at present.

Over the last number of years my main issues/losses have been not been with the companies themselves (except CPI) but political, I have 2 small UK Oil and Gas companies now down by 70% because of EPL (wind fall tax) and took a bit hit on Polymetal (now Solidcore) around 90% because it was forced off LSE and forced to stop dividend payments by UK Government due to having assets in Russia, now hold shares on Kazakhstan exchange and will be years before can relist on western exchange. Makes no sense to me as Russia now gets a lot of these assets almost free like they did with BP and Shell (also own) while western shareholder take huge hit.

At the start of lockdown could see inflation rising because of money printing and large tax rises because of government give aways (this country one of the worst in the world) and made a decision to buy international miners and energy companies because they were cheap, have stuff in the ground which is inflation linked and can easily move between countries so no single government could tax them too highly or they will be off. Also been increasing US investments as it is a far better investment environment than the UK.

In short getting out companies that are doing a lot of business in the UK and moving investments abroad. However taking advantage of poor situation in UK to buy REITs and ITs likely to be wound down as high discount to NAV so IIs have had enough and forced assets to be sold off, cash returned and then liquidated. So far EPIC and BCPT have made good returns API cash will be in soon and adding to others which are at the start of the wind down process.

WhileyD

This means we will have a capital return of 52p per share for those on the register on 19 Dec paid on or around 24 Dec so will be subject to capital gains rules so either a taxable gain if all gains over threshold for the year tax or a loss which can be set against other capital gains depending on the purchase price. The dividend is a PID dividend of 3p so subject to 20% withholding tax if paid outside ISE or SIPP, the ex-dividend date is 19 Dec paid on or around 24 Dec paid on 10 Jan. On the 20 Dec I would expect the SP to reduce by around 55p. The rest of the money will follow in 1 or more payments at some date in the future only after all the other assets are sold i.e. Far Ralia and all costs are paid, this is likely to be a capital return so subject CTG.

"The main indexes ie ftse 100 may be near all time highs, but there are many companies in ftse 350 that are at 5 year plus lows."

The reason for this is that well over half of the business of the FTSE100 companies is outside the UK but this is the opposite for FTSE250 companies (FTSE350 includes the FTSE100) a good example is Shell generates around 5% of its revenue from the United Kingdom. This statistic is a reflection of the UK economy and the anti business stance taken by successive governments especially this one.

"Their record of managing money is appalling........"

Their record on everything is appalling but with Rachel from complaints in charge of the finances guess it is to be expected.

Should have added more public spending will be going on government interest payments due to increased borrowing (caused by out of control spending), inflation which Labour is causing. David lamb(entable) has offered more money to Mauritius to allow us to give them the Chagos Islands before Trump gets into power.

To get the books to balance we must have growth (as stated by labour) but all polices so far will reduce/reverse growth and any more increases in tax will send us down the wrong side of the Laffer Curve. Spending on government departments and social security will have to rise or a revolt will take place amongst Labour MPs, government paid worker and those not working (all are their key voter base) so cuts must be made elsewhere which do not upset the globalists and ESG brigade (more of their key voter base). This has already started with defence which is already vastly underfunded, it is desperately in need of more funding to meet global risks but if they are cutting this so I think extra money for outsources like Capita is unlikely.

"if Mercuria took them private and paid out fair value"

Mercuria will not pay fair value, they will try to get SQZ for as little as they can and use any trick in the book to do so, we have been shafted by them and the BOD once I do not want to see this happen again.

"The upside is from a potential upswing The upside is from a potential upswing in public spending in the UK"

Unfortunately I think the the only upswing in public spending in the UK is going to be on unemployment benefit, disability benefit, other social security benefits, asylum seekers, ESG, diversity officers, increase in public service workers, pay rises for highly unionised government workers or government supported workers e.g. train drivers and give aways to any country that Kier Starmer visits . With tax receipts unlikely to rise due to failing economy I doubt there is any cash for much else.

It would make economic sense outsourcing more as the public service is very inefficient and costly especial when pensions are taken into account but I am sure Rachel from complaints department would disagree and go against the government policy of growing (they call it investing in) government jobs.

"Expecting exec order on day one to release lng exports, support to convert gas to energy from trump"

Trump said he will reverse Biden’s pause on approving new LNG terminals on Day 1 of his presidency.

JC01

I think you have made the best choice and I am slowly moving out of the UK market (and myself out of the UK) which is one of the reasons I bought DEC which is my largest holding, what a mistake, fortunately other non UK investments are doing well.

The main thing I am playing in the UK market is the REITs which are either in winddown or likely to be wound down. The UK market is so bad these are solid companies which are all well below NAV with great yields but not much chance of SP growth so IIs are forcing them to sell off all assets and liquidate, can get 10% to 20% capital gain in a few months up to 1 1/2 years (most cash comes out at the start) while getting yields around 7% to 8%+ while you wait.

JC01

I am sure you are right but not an area I understand although was an IT professional.

This is not advice but I am looking more at energy stocks i.e. O&G and uranium which power AI, would like to keep DEC long term but not sure I trust the BOB to do the right thing for shareholders. Had best recent success with Camerco, just cashed out today as gone really high and bought some NexGen, Camerco been a great trading and investment stock for me and hope to get back in if price reduces. DEC I will exit slowly if/when price rises still have one buy in profit and 2 other close at current SP but most of my holding bought over a year ago so well under water. ENOG bought recently and doing well.

"Terry - let it go with the BB nonsense. No proof they work or would have worked but the accretive acquisition has been well received by the rest of the market and reflected in recent share price moves."

The 2 things we know when there was decent BBs the SP started to rise and the last 4 aqucitsions have all resulted in significant SP falls as soon as they took place, take a look at where the SP was before the fist of these aqucitsions, 110p in old money or when HH was last at these prices for a sustained period of time. You can also add in the loss of dividends required to fund these alone with the SP drop. IMO the recent rise in the SP is down to Trump and I believe the SP would be a lot higher now if these aqucitsions had not happened and we would not have CR dumping shares, trashed dividends and the reputation of having a lying BOD which they did to get the deals through, dividend safe, nothing changed, cash used to reduce debt and BBs. Perhaps in the long term it may all be fine but now the SP is in danger of falling below £12 not going above £13 or even £15 which is mentioned a lot. The sad truth is I will be very happy if one day I can just break even ignoring inflation, not a good place to be.

"Well that little rush of excitement was short lived...🤔🤔"

This is all good news but IMO very little will happen to increase the SP until we see some profits, would not be surprised to see SP drifting lower again (hope not) unless a stream of good news or at least a firm time in the not too distant future when this company will be in profit. For me it is all about seeing some profit and dare I say it a start of dividends, that is why I am here.

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-Gas-Prices-Climb-as-Europe-Scrambles-for-Supply.html

"They got the stock at a valuation way below £10, it makes sense for them to continue selling."

The cost of this deal is in effect increasing for shareholders as the shares they got are now worth more than 25% of the price when allocated adding to the cost of the acquisition, this is situation will be similar for the other shares issued as the SP rises (we hope). The 4% they have is close to the amount of shorts now so any reduction of shorts reducing will probably be offset by more sales, expect some of the shorts to hold on.

I stand by my statement we would all be far better off if free cash was used for BBs and debt reduction instead of chasing deals which dilute shareholders value and push up debt to eye watering levels. We got lucky that Trump was elected but I dread to think where the SP would be now if democrats got in. There are times for new acquisitions but not at the cost of share dilution when SP is in the gutter and loading huge amounts of long term fixed high interest rate debt when interest rates are falling and set to fall for a time.

This was not the company I invested in, it changed without any chance of a vote.

" would have thought equity used in a purchase would be fairly tightly structured in terms of when and how many could be sold - fairly basic given the dangers inherent in the process otherwise?"

I am not sure Rusty gives a damn he is only interested in collecting more wells, the conditions on sale were not easy to find which says it all.