Member Info for TerryM1

Https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/international-public-partnerships-sells-minority-stake-in-moray-east-ofto-93CH-4426315

International Public Partnerships Limited (INPP) has agreed to sell a 49% stake in its Moray East Offshore Transmission Owner (OFTO) asset to Daiwa Energy & Infrastructure Co. Ltd for approximately £42 million, according to a company press release issued Wednesday.

The transaction, expected to complete in the first quarter of 2026, is being executed at a premium to INPP’s last published valuation. The company will retain a 51% majority stake and maintain majority board representation in the Moray East OFTO following the deal.

Shares Purchased: $14,000

Lowest Price $14.26

Highest Price $14.30

Average Price $14.2862

Looks fairly certain $14.30 is the new upper limit.

54,459 shares purchased

Lowest Price $14.28

Highest Price $14.30

Average Price Paid $14.2973

Looks like $14.30 is the new $14.00, upper price.

Https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2806862/natural-gas-stocks-are-well-poised-to-gain-eqt-ar-and-crk?cid=CS-ZC-FT-analyst_blog%7Cindustry_focus-2806862&miRedirects=1

No mention of DEC but DEC should follow any gains.

HH up 11.9% so far today and DEC SP running to catch up at $14.42 (ask), 2.96% up, looking like a good day for the SP.

Not sure what caused the HH rise but some things going on

U.S. Fossil-Fuel Peaker Plants Delay Retirement as AI Power Demand Soars

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Fossil-Fuel-Peaker-Plants-Delay-Retirement-as-AI-Power-Demand-Soars.html

US GDP up 4.3% over the third quarter, this I would assume means industry grew meaning more energy being used.

Venezuelan Oil Seizures is affecting Oil price so may have a knock on affect on HH price.

Hopefully if HH can hold price or go up DEC SP will rise as was $16 when HH was $5 recently.

While I'm not happy at the sp level, I am extremely happy at the continued BB.

The BBs are only occurring when the SP is below $14, so unless anything changes you don't have BBs and SP at $14 or above. There was the large BB direct from the seller a little time ago but well below $14.

Http://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-u-k-more-domestic-160000536.html

"There are rising concerns that the United Kingdom’s gas security is under threat and that not enough is being done to mitigate the risk. Chris O’Shea, the CEO of Centrica, which owns British Gas, has called the government out for not paying enough attention to a gas report that was released on the same day as the annual budget, suggesting that not enough is being done to ensure the future of the U.K.’s gas supply, which could be devastating to consumers."

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"Neso found that there is an “emerging” risk of Britain running out of gas"

So even Neso admits there is a problem, they should tell ED Millibrain.

So more wasted money on ESG.

Taxpayer-backed net zero project axed after five months

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/taxpayer-backed-net-zero-project-080000657.html

Wall Street Analysts Think Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC) Is a Good Investment: Is It?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-analysts-think-diversified-143003590.html

Not sure I would read too much on these AI generated articles but dose have an interest point.

"Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation."

Although worth taking into consideration I put vert little weight on these recommendations as from experience they rarely come true, in the city there is a saying that broker forecast are 10% above the current SP and from experience of following many companies I see forecasts rise as the SP rises and fall as the SP falls.

This year I bought AGNC (mentioned it on here a few times), an American mortgage company after doing research partly based on it's track record since inception and partly it's accounts, it was yielding over 17% when I bought it, dividends been the same for over 5 years, most of the brokers are neutral to negative. If I count dividends up 32% in 8 months, perhaps I was lucky but is an example of broker SP forecasts. Uranium miners are also good examples of poor forecasting, when then are trending up for a time all the forecast are good, when trending down a number start saying the rating are too high. From what I have seen Seeking Alpha has one of the best forecasts (outside of large investment houses where you need to be a client with portfolio in the multi millions) but to get the full information you need pay a subscription.

This does not mean the DEC forecasts are wrong but is far for certain that the SPs they forecast will be achieved without a serious increase in HH or global events which boost the SP. As always best to do your own research.

Howard05

Would be really good to see the debt brought down a lot, if so I think the shares could seriously re-rate, however the debt pile is huge so will take a lot of cash to significantly reduce it, also fixed term so would require to be direct from the owner or in the market if there is a market for it.

For BBs in the last few days most of this is the one off buy outside the market, probably be planed/negotiated for a time, would not expect this to be repeated too often.

HH now $3.945 which may explain the 2% dip in SP today with BBs (if there was any) unable to stop the fall just reduce it.

“Terry - words confusing you again!

Hedging was an example of factors (as part of a list) that influence SP - nothing to do with FCF - please read more carefully!"

You did not make that clear, anyway I should tell you the vast majority of investors in DEC are IIs and I cannot believe they do not understand how IFRS works, it is part of their job, some retail investors may not but they will have very little influence on the SP.

I will try again, if the acquisitions are accretive why has the FCF per share and SP been going down especially as HH has been going up, not Q on Q but for years.

“Negative macro stuff has been discussed repeatedly “

Really so I will ask once again what is the negative macro stuff that only affects DEC SP but not other O&G companies which in general are doing a lot better than DEC?

“It’s very kind of you to be interested in my finances (when I asked after your move to Dubai you accused me of being obsessed).”

You are obsessed because I cannot post on here stating DECs performance without a string of posts from you including insults, I have taken the decision a time ago not to mention you unless you mention me, I have also said a number of times stay away from me and I will stay away from you but you just can’t give up, post after post, looks like a Duck, Quacks like a Duck. . . . .

“My SIPP DEC holding is up 2% - these are much more recent buys for the more advantageous WHT treatment of dividends. My ISA holding is down 15% but on both that doesn’t include dividends. So up overall but down on capital in ISA. Overall only slightly worse than my Energean holding which you never ever seem to criticise.”

I am please you are up which is more than can be said for a lot of people including myself (but getting close to break even), however from you posts it seems a little difficult to understand, but unlike you I am not going to spend hours trolling through old posts like you have done with me. As I have said after the last time you asked me this, I do not criticise Energean (and many other companies I own shares in) as the BOD have not gone on a buying spree trashing the SP on every occasion or any other action that trashes the SP unlike DEC. With Energean I am well into profit even not counting the dividends which have not been trashed by 2/3s and then frozen for years.

Jim800

“!You bring up FCF /share. When we last had this debate you wouldn’t accept adjustments for one offs (land sales etc) because the adjusted FCF / share is increasing, not decreasing! You’re being selective again to justify your doom and gloom narrative? Obviously the bare FCF/share will lag acquisition by a year or so until absorption is completed.”

FCF per share with one offs means nothing on the progress of the company, FCF per share excluding one offs do. These acquisitions have been going on for 3 years now so 1 year lag would have still seen an increase in the FCF if the acquisitions are accretive, not selective just looking at performance over many years.

“Whilst there have been macro factors that should have helped the SP there have also been many factors which have hurt it - these have been discussed ad nauseum but I’ll repeat to balance your continued negativity.”

What are these negative factors, all I can see are a lot of positive ones which have resulted the SP of other O&G companies going up, so please explain what these negative factors are that only affect DEC.

“Treatment of hedging in accounts - has often required the declaration of a loss (which is paper, not real: opportunity cost if you like).”

FCF has nothing to do with IFRS treatment in accounts.

“Failure to understand capping costs and how DEC accounts deal with them.”

I do, this is the cost of doing business and will be reflected mostly in future costs and does not explain a falling FCF per share, in fact it should increase it as the costs are being put off.

“ESG policy amongst big investors.”

ESG policy is easing especially since Trump elected, if this was a cause it would be seen in other O&G companies but they have risen not fallen.

“Difficulty comparing DEC results Q on Q or Y on Y due to acquisitions in significant numbers / volumes.”

This is why FCF per share over a period of time needs to be used which is going down and the SP has been going down for 3 years now so not just Q on Q or Y on Y but a long term decline.

“Your continued rants on “acquisitions are bad” show a comprehensive disagreement with company policy. This ain’t going to change so I still fail to see why you are still here - unless you’re just searching for reasons to spread your doom and gloom.”

This is why I am changing what I do, trading rather than holding but I want to try and clear my losses from when I bought this company as a long term investment. I am getting closer with every trade, almost traded out recently at close to breakeven but prevaricated so lost out. I see no point in taking a loss when there is a good chance I can turn it into a profit but without these loss making acquisitions would very likely be well in profit as I am with other O&G companies.

How’s your hold and hope strategy going? you seem to be very happy with DEC so how much have you made on DEC in the last few years or do you jus

The 2 sets of BBs announcements for yesterday are interesting.

The smaller one for 36,320 shares at an average price $13.9528 was by Mizuho Securities and in the market. At a guess the cap on the price for BBs is set at $14 for now.

The larger one for 567,604 shares (more than total market volume) at a single price of $13.25 through Morgan Stanley has been purchase outside of the market so probably from one of the companies who got the shares as part of acquisitions. At $13.25 looks like a very good buy unless of course the price was less when the shares used as party of the deal.

Would be good to have some information on what is going on.

Jim800

"Terry - once again whilst your share price movements and dates are correct I think you over simplify the reasons. It is more than just acquisitions that drive share price! There’s a whole load of macro and emotional stuff out there as well 😀"

That is true and they have been in DEC's favour, the largest was the Trump election which removed the threat of AROs for a time, opening up more LPG export plants (instead of restricting them), cutting back on green energy, Ukraine war, AI data centres etc, also HH has been rising and can now add in interest rates are coming down. So all in all the external factors which drive the SP would point to a much better market for DEC shares and should have been reflected in the SP and an increase in dividends but here we are. As has been stated by AceofClubs EQT, the largest natural gas producer in Appalachia, has seen its share price up 350% over the past 5 years, so a lot better managed along with the rise due to external factors.

The 2 reasons I originally bought DEC (along with other companies in the same field, all of which have done far better and none anywhere near to a loss) was I am optimistic on energy prices in the long term and the good dividend, I am still optimistic on energy prices but the dividend has been sacrificed on the altar of acquisitions along with the SP.

The huge debt, cut in dividends, major share dilution along with dumping of the shares used as part payment for acquisitions is weighing very heavily on the SP and has knocked the market confidence in DEC, as we can see HH goes up a lot and DEC shares go up a little, HH goes down DEC shares go down and require large amount of BBs just to stop the fall even though HH has now stabilised around $4.

Asp1

I should have said FCF per share which is what counts for investors, If you look at the FCF and ignore one offs it has been going down, if it does start to improve that will be a good sign however it would have done that without any acquisitions as HH rises.

For me I am a fan of making money on a share not losing it and if a strategy which has been running for almost 3 years has done nothing but lose money and has been tested to destruction it is not one I support especially that is one I did not get a vote on.

Shorttracker has DEC at 2.05% down from 3.75% a week ago

"I think Rusty and Co have put in place with the 2 smart acquitions this year"

Unfortunately these acquisitions have added a large amount of debt, reduced the FCF and taken the SP from over £14.00 to it's current level and acquisitions overs the last few years have taken the SP down from £22.00 (£28 peak), reduced the dividends by 2/3s, added huge amount of high priced fixed term debt, put DEC on top as the most shorted share, not so smart Rusty unless you are shorting the shares.

It should be remembered that Maverick still have around 2/3s of the shares they got from the acquisition and it was the last dump from them that caused the recent tanking of the SP only being held up to some extent by large BBs.

What has helped DEC is the high HH price but shares are nowhere near the same price as they were when HH was last at these prices. As has been seen a reduction HH to what is still a high level has resulted in DEC SP dropping fast and is taking a large amount of BBs just to stabilise the price.

First potential tenant of Fermi 's Texas Data Center pulls out, it was on track to bring hundreds of megawatts on line for the site by the beginning of next year, has 6 GW of gas turbine power already permitted, also is currently progressing with the NRC to allow the construction of 4 AP1000 reactors. This could be responsible for fall in Uranium and Uranium miners.

Looks like more pressure on Gas price as as first potential tenant of Fermi 's Texas Data Center pulls out, it was on track to bring hundreds of megawatts on line for the site by the beginning of next year, has 6 GW of gas turbine power already permitted, also is currently progressing with the NRC to allow the construction of 4 AP1000 reactors which could well be responsible for fall in Uranium and Uranium miners.

From IG

​Natural gas futures drop to six-week low

​US natural gas futures have rapidly come off their 5 December 494.9 record high and slid to a six-week low at 370.7 around which they may find short-term support.

​If not, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 357.8 may be reached.

​Minor resistance is likely to be encountered in the 400.0 region.

​Short-term outlook: bearish but may find short-term support in the 370 region; if not, the 350 area may be revisited

​Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bearish bias while below the 450 zone

MrG123

I can trade these in IWEB and HL but IWEB does not recognise W-8BEN so if you get dividends you get 30% WHT but for quick trading no problem and did that on day 1 of the move with IWEB after most brokers locked up all DEC shares and SP all over the place.

I have considered 212 and must do some more research, as most of my funds are in my SIPP and this is held at present by II would need to be moved. One of the reasons I chose these brokers is partly to split my holding and they have good financial backup. This is because any funds held with the broker above the FSCS protection limit is at risk in the unlikely event the broker goes bankrupt. Also II has a set fee not determined by the value of your holdings .This does not mean I do not trust 212 but need to do more research including the spread.

However the issue is these shares are in my SIPP and have been converted and unless II changes this there is nothing I can do except sell in $s, more this to £s at a cost of 0.25% and transfer out to another broker. I am not completely unhappy with the situation as I am moving more to shares outside of the UK but given the size of my DEC holding I was not planning to move this much so quickly. If I keep DEC not so much of a problem but as I am almost at breakeven (including trading and dividends) I am tempted to reduce my holdings given the roller coaster ride since buying DEC.