Member Info for TerryM1

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vodafone-group-public-limited-company-193248966.html

AST SpaceMobile’s seem interesting.

Sparz

"The last few deals they have done are all at a less initial yield than the current dividend they are paying out. Not sure exactly how this all works out but surely the dividend will drop at some point."

It should not, it is down to gearing, as a simple example you buy an asset giving a yield of 5% using half cash and half loan at a cost of 4%, end result you get overall yield of 6%. This gap will improve as the rent rises and if/when interest on the loan reduce. This is a main factor why the REITs fell so much when interest rates rose and why they will rise as they fall, also the underlying asset price will fall as interest rates rise and rise as they fall.

JC01

The 3.4m shares for the Carlyle/ Canvas deal makes sense given the numbers, been trading in and out and almost broke even a little while ago at $16 but been falling since. I am heading in the right direction and hopefully will get there before too long, I am not counting on this recovering as it seems like a forlorn hope given the debt mountain and it's reputation but trading has been helping.

asp1

Thanks for the numbers, 6,3M shares seems right, matches my number of 2.9m and 3.4m from Carlyle/ Canvas deal

This poses another question, BB was set at 10% so there was 80,990,150 when BBs for this period started, there is 78,046,880 shares after last BB on 9 Jan 26 meaning share count has decreased by 2,943,270 which is less than 3,273,466 reported on 11 Aug, this points to more shares being issued but I thought the last major increase (may be some for employees/directors shareholder schemes) was the Maverick deal, the last deal was in the JV but I don't think this involved any shares.

From my understanding the new BBs amount was announced 20 March 2025 and voted in Apr 25. The maximum BB were increase in line with the total number of shares (set at 10%) which gives a maximum BBs of 8,099,015 until the next vote or 30 June 2026 whichever comes first. This was increased from 4,756,842 voted in Apr 24 which at the time was 10% of the shares. I am not sure when the period starts, I think it is just after the vote Apr 25 but perhaps but could be 30 June 2025 so it runs 30 June 2025 to 30 June 2026, if this is the case the previous maximum of 4,756,842 is in place until 30 June 2025. At the time of the report 11 Aug 3,273,466 shares had been BB either from the date of the vote (which I think is the case) or 30 June 2025.

You can find the info here

https://ir.div.energy/news-events/us-press-releases/detail/203/diversified-energy-reports-strong-second-quarter-results-highlighting-consistent-cash-margins-year-over-year-growth-and-disciplined-execution-of-maverick-acquisition-integration

"Share Repurchase Program

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, the Company's share repurchase authority was approved for a maximum of 8,099,015 shares representing 10% of the Company's issued share capital (the "2025 Authorization"). The Company announced details regarding the parameters of a Share Buyback Program (the "Program") on 20 March 2025, pursuant to which the maximum number of shares repurchased shall not exceed 4,756,842 Shares under the Program. Following the 2025 Authorization, the Company announces that the maximum number of shares repurchased under the Program shall be increased to, and shall not exceed, 8,099,015 shares. Year to date, the company has repurchased 3,273,466 shares, representing approximately 4% of the shares outstanding."

Anyway what is more important is why have they stopped, if it has hit the maximum they can always go back to shareholders to increase the amount.

Found the info, this is from 2024 AGM when total number of shares was a lot lower and it represented 10% the shares at the time.

Jim

Where did you get this information, from AGM 9/4/25

"18.1 to a maximum number of Shares with an aggregate nominal value of up to £1,619,803 (amounting to 8,099,015 Shares as at the date of the Notice) representing 10% of the current issued share capital of the Company"

"such authority shall expire at the conclusion of the next annual general meeting of the Company or 30 June 2026 (if earlier), unless previously revoked, varied or renewed"

As I said a number of time DEC BBs are anaemic and sporadic, this round was decent volume so not anaemic but sporadic.

What are they up to they buy at up to $14.40 give up and refuse to buy as low as $12.78. Have they reached the maximum under the current shareholder approval which I think was around 8M (10% at the time). Most companies announce the BB program including start date, period and amount, DEC as you say keeps shareholders in the dark.

The one thing we can take from this is the BB program is a mess, and if run better by just using common sense could BB shares at lower prices giving better value to shareholders and hopefully preventing this roller coaster.

Not only stopping BBs allows the SP to drop it reduces confidence because if you buy when the BBs are running they could stop at anytime leaving you with losses. A sort of pass the parcel game with c**p as the prize when the music stops, all part I guess of Rusty snakes and ladders game with the SP but a warning to potential buyers not to buy while BBs in progress but sell and buy in when they stop which from past experience is not that long.

Jim800

I am certainly one who will sell out my trades (not core holding) if/when SP gets to £10.50, I will use this cash to buy back in if SP goes down or trade other stocks. However I suspect there are not that many shares traded compared with the IIs and BBs (if they restart again), it is the overhang of shares from the deals which are IMO causing this issue with the SP, in particular Maverick not sure how much they have now of the 21m shares they got but suspect around half and they do seem determined to exit.

On the face of it and with hindsight these trades are mistimed but you cannot predict the future and if trading there will be losses and is the overall sum of gains verses losses that counts, also this is not over for me yet, will hold for a time.

SP up a bit now so perhaps the start of a rebound but will require BBs to get it really going.

Https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/intertek-group-plc-quiet-outperformance-firm-conviction-is-the-stock/68477968

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/primary-health-properties-calls-2025-113405499.html

No BBs yesterday which explains why SP dropped so much, this round of BBs have been going on since mid DEC 25 so what has happened, is it just a pause which has happened before, run out of money, reached the maximum allocation without going back to shareholders or looking at a new deal.

As I said the main danger of my trades is holding if BBs stopped as as Jim says "win some lose some ", will now wait a time before doing anything, have factored in the possibility I may need to hold these for a time if it goes wrong.

MrG123

"Sorry Terry, couldn't resist."

No problem all part of the fun. I used to get amusement out of winding up GG but he became more and more angry and ridicules so decided to call an end to it, we all know he will jump on here if the SP is under pressure and crawl back into the woodwork when it goes up.

On a more serious note I only hope Rusty has leant his lesion and only buy more wells to replenish the O&G with perhaps a small amount of expansion until until the market is more favourable to these deals which I suspect is a long way off as it will take a large debt reduction to achieve this.

LordNaz

This is the result of numerous deals buying more wells and funding with debt and shares issued to the seller. Quite a number of these shares are being dumped on the market, sold in placing and some being bought off market by DEC. The deal that seems to be causing the most problems is the Maverick deal, not only the largest with around 21m shares, from what I can see getting on for half have been sold so good chance the other half will be sold in the short to medium term, however there are other companies with DEC shares which were acquired as part of the deals and may end up going the same way. BBs are helping but can only BB 25% of the average in one day and there is no guarantee (from past experience) how long will keep this up also not sure how many more than can buy without going back to shareholders as there is a maximum set each year.

MrG123

"wind Terry up"

He never did wind me up, was fun for a time winding him up and living in his head rent free but gave up a long timer ago and filtered him, I assume he has got over that now and stopped obsessing about me but seems that when SP drops he can't stay away no doubt gloating even thought he has no shares in DEC. Anyway no point arguing with a idiot.

As for the current situation giving good trading opportunities, a little over break even in the last week but should pick up at some point so hopefully turn good.

Ripley94

One of the issues with placing an order to execute when market opens is the spread which is particular bad for DEC on LSE. I was monitoring this for a time before placing an order this morning and from what I saw the 978p (however now a little below this) was only for sell. As always the question is it best to take to wait as the SP often goes down on LSE during the morning or take what seems like a low price and try not to be too clever and lose out on an opportunity for a few p. The one thing I do know is it is rare you buy on the low and sell on the high, if you try to hard too get this often miss out, main thing is there is a profit.

In general not much happens on LSE after price settles and the action happens when NYSE is open.

Jim800

"Ah well - win some lose some "

That's the way it goes but it is not over yet, will see what happens when NY opens and BBs hopefully kick in again.

There were 2 sets of BBs one for 225,000 shares at $13.68 off market so probably one of the companies that got shares as part of a deal and the other for 143,851 shares at an average price of $13.5071 this was in the market and is probably the maximum that can be bought back in a day.

Got some more this morning at £9.80 to trade, looking very cheap but who knows, find out when NYSE opens.

Jim800

"Nice timing - I thought SP would drop back to 1040 ish but not this far given yesterday’s US performance."

Got away with that one but bought back in latter at £10.29 so not quite so good, however up 76p on first trades and at current price converting to $ to £ down 37p on the second trades, add in IAG shares I sold to make the purchase have dropped at bit so overall good but tainted by second trade. Hopefully Monday will see some recovery.

Sold all the UK DEC shares I bought yesterday for at £9.89 for £10.665, may buy in again if they go down.