Colin Linkedin15 Nov 2021 11:23
We are now witnessing the end of the #selfdriving dream in mass-market vehicles. Argo AI, Aurora, Cruise, Motional and Waymo will find a future, but self-driving mass-market vehicles isn't it. The technology is too immature, too expensive and too brittle.
Billions of dollars have been wasted chasing development of a technology which was never suited to privately-owned vehicles. Tesla's #Autopilot and "Full-Self Driving" are a MacGuffin, a red herring, a developmental cul-de-sac. These systems drove short-term shareholder riches, but came with a long-burn regulatory denouement that is set to detonate in the coming months. Musk is timing his exit to perfection; other investors will be ruined.
Lessons must be learned. Never again can experimental technology be tested on non-consenting subjects on public roads.
Tier 1 & tier 2 suppliers must understand and respond to the industry pivot to C.A.P.E. (connected, assisted, personalized, electric). Automakers will chase the money, not lawsuits, and that is a future of Level 2 "hands-free" highway driving, with in-cabin personalized services delivered over #5G connectivity onto HD #infotainment displays. Think of the services provided by a combination of the iPhone, App Store and iTunes for a vision of the car of the future. Qualcomm and Google look to be the early leaders.
The common #technology across assisted driving and personalized services is advanced driver monitoring, using #eyetracking to measure driver attention, engagement and workload. Levels of information (and entire displays) can be turned off if the driver is distracted or showing signs of information overload. The technology leader for driver monitoring by an absolute mile is Seeing Machines.
Ford Motor Company is the automaker leading the trend to C.A.P.E. The appointment of Doug Field is an absolute masterstroke and demonstrates excellent leadership by CEO Jim Farley. GM has lost ground by becoming distracted with Cruise and Ultra Cruise, so too Toyota with Woven Planet.
Mercedes and Volvo are also distracted, but by the allure of "software-defined cars" and the supposed PR-kudos of partnering with Nvidia. As Steve Jobs observed: "You have to start with the customer experience and work backwards to the technology." In automotive, drivers don't care about technology, they care about experiences. Ford understands this.
BMW is probably closest to Ford and we will see more with iDrive 8 in the iX and i4. VW also has the potential to introduce something radical with CARIAD, but urgently needs to set a #DMS strategy. Apple may have missed its opportunity already.
On Jan. 9 2007, Jobs announced the first iPhone at the Macworld convention. Blackberry, Motorola and Nokia all died on stage that day. The next five years will be an equally groundshaking revolution as the in-cabin experience changes entirely. Who can match Ford's fields of gold? We will have to watch to find out.