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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/house-price-growth-falls-six-year-low/

inevitable and sensible really after a very "frothy" period.

oooops TW not Redrow

Three Directors have purchased a total of 873,086 TW shares so far this month.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=BKG&ArticleCode=s4ddxj18&ArticleHeadline=Halfyear_Report

At the beginning of 2018,you said that homebuilder SPs could fall by about thirty percent this year.Can I borrow your crystal ball for a couple of days early in 2019?.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/12/03/housebuilders-rally-around-new-property-portal-take-zoopla/

Unlike the other houses in the road,Telford Cottage has an eyewatering value of rare gems buried in the garden,waiting to be dug up and the inhabitants have taken in a lodger called Jerry who is an expert at rare gem retrieval.So the owners of the house don't give a hoot what Rightmove says about the value of the house right now,or the others in the road,because one day ,Rodney,they are all going to be very rich.

Even with lower broker forecast EPS for the next few years,NAV for year ending March 2021 is forecast to be around 410p per share,which is comforting.

If TW had a market value on the same basis as BDEV,SP/NAV, TW would be trading at 90p per share.Does this indicate that TW is comparatively expensive or are other factors involved?.

It is possible that home builder EPS will struggle to make much progress over the next few years,if any at all,and perhaps just maintaining current levels will be a stellar achievement.The "Strictly come switching" system you use should show "buy and hold" a clean pair of heels for 2018.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46397730

P/BV or SP/NAV for TW about 1.5....others at 1.0....1.1....1.2...etc

If TW were valued on the same basis as some other similar sized home builders,their SP would be around 100p right now.

With TEF going EX the 8.5p dividend next Wednesday,We may struggle to stay above 300p by the end of the week.

Steph...each time the property market stagnates or falls,some event is blamed,last one was the credit crunch,this time it is Brexit.As we know from past experience,housing recovers in due course and prices march on to even higher levels.In my view,housing is affordable if the monthly mortgage cost does not exceed the cost of renting,taken over the length of the mortgage.At least with a mortgage,you usually get your money back,years later on down the line which you do not with rent.To be honest,the whole subject of politics makes my eyes glaze over and I find it hard to pay too much attention to the daily shenanigans in Parliament,but on the whole,politicians seem to want to improve the lot of the average Joe.Not sure that long term,it matters too much which bums sit on the seats in The House of Commons or The House of Lords.There is little doubt that the lot of the people improves from one generation to the next in terms of achievable ambitions and standard of living.Just look at the movies from the end of WW2 to the late 1980's to see how different peoples lives were then.So despite the carry on politically around the world,the people,on the whole,can be optimistic.

Sain..my best guess of costs involved with a typical private sale of say £530K is
Land ,planning,architect………..£190k
Site construction costs £200k
O/H,selling costs,profit £140k

Steph.....TEF are facing more difficult conditions now than anything they have faced in the last 7 years or so.They have correctly positioned themselves to participate in the increasing IPRS development market,but margins are less than private sale and those margins will face downward pressure as more homebuilders get involved.Private sale HPI is likely to be around nil for the next few years but costs will not stop going up.We are fortunate to have JDS and his colleagues looking after us but all they can do is deal with how the market is,a case of running faster to stand still probably until the private sale market takes off again.You are always uber optimistic but maybe you should consider the possibilities of static EPS for a while.Any business that has a market cap of £230m and PBT of £45m a year is a gold mine really.

Subject to a sensible Brexit outcome,homebuilders will do well to maintain EPS at around present levels for the next 3 or four years and HPI may be around zero over that period.After an eyewatering period of solid EPS growth,a pause for breath was inevitable.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/urban--38-civic-plc--uanc-/rns/final-results/201811290700088349I/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162#share-tools