Member Info for terrace

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=PSN&ArticleCode=b2aovzhk&ArticleHeadline=CEO_change

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=RDW&ArticleCode=set8al91&ArticleHeadline=AGM_Statement

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=PSN&ArticleCode=i8xph7o5&ArticleHeadline=Third_Quarter_Trading_Statement

http://www.greystar-greenford.com/

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-decade-on-new-home-numbers-go-through-roof-8pgchr0rs?shareToken=8286c311ff17270a1b1aa579ecf8fe55

Steph " buying opportunity"...………...how many times have we said that over the last 15 years,cant recall too many "selling opportunity" posts on here though.Anything under EV is attractive but unfortunately,nobody rings a bell when the SP reaches a periodic low.Most of us here believe our capital has been allocated wisely,but we do need a big pay day eventually,otherwise it has all been a waste of time.All we can really do is wait or move on.

In view of the recent trading update,continuing Brexit uncertainty,a possible disappointing Far East road trip this month. and pending a significant IPRS announcement,perhaps time to be more cautious with the EV.Lets assume the worst and that future EPS will struggle to make much progress on the 17/18 numbers for a while,on a very conserevative basis,EV will be in the region of 504p until there is clear evidence of further growth.It does beg the question as to what planet the stock market is on with the ridiculous SP available right now.Indications are that most ,if not all,of the other home builders are in the same boat operationally.

https://www.hardmanandco.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/UK-Housebuilding-Sector-in-3Q-2018-trains-cows-and-beyond.pdf

https://news.sky.com/story/third-of-house-sellers-slashing-price-amid-market-uncertainty-11534331

BKG -25%
PSN -25%
RDW -26%
TW -28%
BWY -28%
BVS -29%
INL -30%
BDEV -30%
CSP -30%
TEF -35%
CRST -47%

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/22/crest-nicholson-takeover-target-shareholders-warn/

must be quite close to 320p per share right now.

Much talk of difficult conditions.TEF need to sell and buyers are thinking about buying.Somewhere in between is a price that both parties can live with.Simple really....but far from easy.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-6278081/Do-need-act-want-buy-new-home-Brexit.html

Homebuilder SPs have fallen steadily this year and TEF were at or near the price they started at until the update and then they caught up the others in a few days.For the best part of the first nine and a half months,the market believed that TEF were different and now it has decided,well actually,perhaps not.

Steph yes that is a positive,so what do you think has caused the market to take a dim view of the update?.

Steph....you must have read a different update to me.JDS has said what those who follow the market closely already know,viz,it has become a lot more difficult out there to get buyers to commit to a purchase and that is likely to have an impact on the profits we thought were achievable.Notwithstanding that,the present SP is discounting a severe deterioration in EPS,but will that actually happen?.

A couple of years ago,our BOD foresaw the possibility of the market conditions now being encountered and made the decision to target IPRS as 50% of output.With private sales,hurdle rates are set for land costs based on anticipated sale prices,construction cost being a relatively straightforward element to calculate.Likewise with IPRS there are hurdle prices to be achieved in order that those contracts provide the right margins.The difficulty is that institutions are fully aware of the pressure that home builders are under and will use that to drive very hard bargains.It is unlikely that any institution is going to pay TEF a higher rate than they would pay to other capable builders,there will not be any Telford premiums being paid.So what JDS needs to try and achieve is IPRS contracts at a sufficient level to keep overall growth and EPS moving in the right direction.Maybe the lack of contract procurement in the last year or so is evidence of that and when the imminent announcement of progress in IPRS negotiations is made,it will be at tighter margins than TEF would like.We expect miracles from JDS and the other Directors and management,but if they can maintain EPS at the 17/18 level for the next few years,they will have done all that could reasonably be asked.The market does not think that TEF and there peers can make that happen,hence the ridiculous SPs being quoted at the moment.In TEFs case,it may well be seriously underestimating the acumen of our boys.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-45911792/persimmon-boss-refuses-to-answer-questions-about-75m-bonus

Mog….absolutely no chance,worried that we could be visiting the 120's in the next few months.