Member Info for Temple_of_Doom

https://nairametrics.com/2022/12/09/nigerias-daily-crude-oil-production-crawls-to-1-41-million-bpd-for-november-2022/

Production up to 1.59 million barrels a day … and

“ According to him, the NNPC and its security partners have successfully removed 638 out of 763 illegal refineries: Wunti said work is still being done to identify new illegal refineries, stating the fact that 70% of illegal refineries have been incapacitated already. During the 11th Practical Nigerian Content Forum on December 6, Bala Wunti disclosed that Nigeria’s oil production as of December 6 is 1.59 million barrels per day.‘

Goodness … so someone knew.

I did the sums yesterday … correlation of Seplat with Brent oil price is about 30% … this past year …where the floor will be tested at $70 as the price I read that the USA will start buying again giving some support but I’m thinking more $60-$50 since the oil market is viscous so more pain to come I suspect.

Smart move by Seplat with its resources award … puts pressure on NNPC in terms of resource uses and the Exxon contract … but things stand the market has written off that takeover so it is what it is and we could be looking at 70p -60p again until positive news flows.

Such is the way of this share.

GLA

Just got the Seplat divi today .... early.

“One of the last big ftse moves from around 7500 to the 6800s saw Seplat go down well over 10%. Which for me is significant enough to show restraint on my buy.“

… and the FTSE going backup that 10% recently also saw Seplat go down another 10% …. The comment made was naff Gavster makes no difference to me if you want to try and defend a naff comment …. I’ll happily filter.

"There's always some. " .... Over the last year the correlation between Seplat and FTSE100 taking out the means for each share is 0.021 or 2.1% and some but small.

"Analysis: Europe can't look to U.S. shale to fill any OPEC gap" Reuters ....

Hello Nigeria ... :)

Errr .. is there a significant correlation between the FTSE100 and Seplat Gavster? Watch out for November Oil production, £/$/Nira .... and other stocks Seplat correlates with in the sector.

This share is a sitting duck for a takeout with an aggressive NNPC.

SAVE is on the way up …. Expect Seplat to follow.

That £100k O trade seems against the current trend.

... as I mentioned previously .. watch the £/$ ratio .... at the moment Seplat is tracking the $/£ as the £ strengthens so dividends in $'s reduce ... or maybe Nira ....

These short term trends are common ... and was/is a key to international investor confidence in the UK .... FTSE100 going up as £ strengthens .. suggesting money is pouring into UK finding the natural home in stock markets ... that would be a sign of strengthening UK economy ...

.. with the more usual inverse relationship between FTSE100 and £/$ the UK would be treading water as I suggest is happening to Seplat now.

The downside would suggest another 10% or so .. since I can't see £/$ going above 1:1.40 ...

" Thats 193p when converted on xe.com" I referred to the BLACK market price.The Nira is a soft currency.

“ They don't have the money to buy SEPL and wouldn't pay the control premium anyway. “ Not true …. NNPC raised several billion from foreign banks if I recollect correctly in recent history, and have offered $2bn for the Exxon assets again if I recollect correctly from the news.

There are two items holding up the final outcome ….. the first is the alleged $100 million bribe, and the second is the injunction on the sale.

As it stands, the bet on Seplat is blind, but we can bear in mind that this price was seen in 2021 with £ far stronger and oil weaker in price … and the company makes a good profit.

Working on the black market price for the Nigerian Nira …. Gives a trading price of 110p for Sepl …. Equally SAVE is being hit hard so we have a hedgie hitting the price in the sector … another £25K for the MMs to distribute to retail investors by the looks.

"I no longer feel the deal will go through" Maybe yes maybe no ... getting rid of the uncertainty would be good, however.

"purchase of a major/contolling stake in SEPL by NNPC" ... as I mentioned below .... NNPC could almost buy Seplat out for difference in price on the Exxon assets for that they will pay versus the price Seplat will pay.

No brainer really.

The Seplat deal is structured as a reverse takeover ….

https://www.whitecase.com/news/press-release/white-case-advises-seplat-energy-acquisition-exxon-mobils-offshore-shallow-water

Old but relevant.

“ The acquisition constitutes a reverse takeover of Seplat Energy for the purposes of the UK Listing Rules and is expected to close during the second half of 2022 following receipt of regulatory approvals in Nigeria. This is the first transaction to be announced under the Nigerian government's recently ratified Petroleum Industry Act. ‘

Legally in strict terms I don’t think NNPC have a leg to stand on .. but this is down to politics in Nigeria and is something else.

Regulator that wants to buy assets … is a conflict of interest and should not be allowed as it’s an abuse of position.

So we wait and see.

Meanwhile .... Black Friday Seplat discounts on offer.

ROFL

;)

I scalped a bunch at 91.4 yesterday afternoon after the rebound ..... from 86-88 yesterday .... so I'm back in again now ....

.... seems ridiculously cheap given the wider market .... post August 8th average 102p.

So not great but this little sell off has caught quite a few by surprise I imagine.

GLA.

;)

There it goes …. another £10K for the MMs.

Expect a few more ….

Speaking of which … just scalped 5p off PFC …. 88p … maybe ….. GLA ;)

This hedge fund is trapping level II on the upside and giving MMs more stock by selling O-trades on the downside …. Concerted effort in the oil space in the UK on some stocks … PFC being another.