Member Info for Temple_of_Doom

Results are a coin toss in my experience …. Not great timing to release results just after an election …. But it is what it is …
… we know production overall will be better than November results.

A Seplat deal is better than a NNPC deal ….. Exxon ….. ;)

If I knew what I was doing I would be buying more here …. But happy with the hold position and the incremental rise waiting for the news to break.

GLA

30p looked likely to me …. At the time …. Lowest I got was around there in 2020 …. But well done holders …..

Good Luck ;)

I read some report that claimed funds saw big outflows in January in anticipation of recession but I always had the feeling markets had too much time to prepare while energy prices falling will give people more cash to buy back higher so up and away … bought more low 120s today.

"Putin has ostensibly cut production to hide that he hasn’t buyers."

Oil rallies with a break out of superpower conflict, whether Seplat also rallies is a different question.

PIcked this up as well:

"ExxonMobil desperate to close Seplat deal ahead of presidential election"

"The US oil and gas giant is in a race against time to get its sale pushed through before Buhari leaves office, fearful of post-election uncertainty. It has sent its upstream director to Nigeria to try and unblock the situation. "

Africa Intelligence ... seems a Fake News web site to me .... so probably best to take with a pinch of salt but elections are coming so one might expect volatility.

If Zelensky is right …. There will be a heavy push from Russia …. In the next few weeks …. and we all know what that will do to energy prices.

I bailed this morning …. The phrase “underlying earnings in profits” suggests to me a loss being posted.

Could go either way IMO.

Fair enough Trek .... May 2020 I was £2K down on Seplat post the 2015-2017 oil sell off but had made a nice profit on Soco now Pharo at the time .... that is now virtually a penny share ... falling oil production numbers kills stocks in this sector ...

.. but since then I've completed around 1300 buy&sell Seplat trades .... averaged just shy of 5% profit on each buy/sell trade that includes dividends .... and gone in heavy on the bigger sub 90/80p sells offs ....

... have positions elsewhere that need looking after ... so 50% of profits is my core hold here .. so whilst the going has been good .... time for a rest.

ps. Took Profits on Natural Gas this morning .... paid for gas bill this year ..... sickening really .... why is the government not playing the markets for the good of the people .. I thought that was what Tories were supposed to be good at.

;)

Yes .. good call Trek .... I've shifted the core hold up 50% from last year pending this Exxon deal outcome .... back to a comfortable hold position ... last sale was 114.5, but decided I'd over sold today and bought back at 111.75.

Next few days will determine if US Gas and broken the down trend .. just needs a snap of cold weather .. so my interest is in ETFs in this sector going forwards ....

... I'll be back for more sub 100p if it retraces ... but 450 buy/sell trades since March 2021 is enough on this share .. time to give the MMs a rest.

To the filtered trolls ... suck it up .... I've done very well here .. and that's all that counts to me.

GLA

;)

Yup …. Took 136 looking for high 120s

Some keen selling too .... same number of shares as per August 8th .. average 128p .. average down to 83p ..... overall average on Seplat -66p.

Good day .. time for a walk down the river .... and maybe a glass of bubbly.

GLA

Investors are still happy to buy into this share at a premium, whilst a few months ago one could have topped up at 240p … making 12p on dividends on top ….

I first bought in here a couple of years ago at 323p or there about … and there have been plenty of opportunities to add and sell over that time whilst keeping a core hold ….

… so the two year average for me is down to around 219p … giving a current yield on sum invested of around 12% … so shaving a couple of % off yield to try for slightly more growth would not bother me too much … and would probably be better for the fund as a whole …. Ie let dividends sit at 90% of income earned from the previous year.

... Something.

;)

Good day.

Exxon had similar disputes in the USA .., presumably UK because Shell is UK based.

Anyways I’ve started to buy natural gas ETFs …. Spot Price has fallen off a cliff … note that Seplat sells most gas at a fixed rate …

;)

"The Nigerian equities market sustained its bullish momentum on Wednesday, as buying interests in Seplat (+10.0 percent) and GEREGU (+8.5 percent) buoyed a third consecutive gain. "

Are Sustainable Capital Ltd getting close to 10% hold?

The flipside is that NNPC if it wants to be the next Saudi Aramco should buy out Seplat as I’ve said before… makes sense …. They can have my shares for 140p if they ask nicely.

;)

30p target?

Wasn't OML 40 one of the sites hit hard by oil theft last year in which Seplat is receiving payment in terms of delivered oil ... seemed a slightly messy deal from memory, but no delivery means a longer delay to repay.

I also found this from the AR last year:

"Project activities associated with preparation for drilling the high-impact, near-field Sibiri (formerly Amobe) exploration well in OML 40 were completed in 2021 and the well was drilled in Q1 2022. The well has been drilled to TD, with initial
indications it has encountered eight oil-bearing reservoirs with 353 ft of gross hydrocarbon pay, net pay of 229 ft. Further
data acquisition and analysis on the well is underway"

Anyways ... took some off table at 107 today so post August 8th average down to 98.6p ... oil price willing up to the next trading level.

GLA