Member Info for Temple_of_Doom

.... the GSF divdend this year will further depend upon the USA rebate due. I did very well out of NESF down to 70p and SEIT down to 52p earlier in the year .... I expect to do even better here.

Both SEIT and NESF have been hit to unreasonable lows this year by hedgies … now they have turned on GSF … that’s the market.

An update is due in a few days … we will find out soon “if” there are problems because information has been leaked to a hedge fund going short or whether a hedge fund is spoofing.

Personally, I think the fall is down to a combination of the shift in dividend and general sector woes owing to UK bond yields lifting. I expect the latter to normalise by end of November.

“ Government "Cap and floor" scheme to support UK energy storage” The UK is not a major income generator for GFS …

True …Therosyl1. I’ve noted for a number years what I’ve labelled a 5.00am hedge fund putting orders on level II … and when I see it, I take it to be a short signal from a US hedge fund so drip in slowly from the hold position … and have noted the orders here for a month or 2. The largest buy order was at 56p that cleared a week ago(?) - time flies - with a pittance order at 50p that I’ve not seen before at such low levels.

So I’m keeping an eye out for a 50p target at this point … observation not advice … and I’m not the trader so could be wrong.

However, when the 5.00am trader reverses the reversal of the shareprice is fast so hold on to the hat when it happens.

GLA

Presumably few are talking about “it” because the Truss bond levels were surpassed a few months later with higher interest rates.

Government Bond markets like austerity because it means the UK is more able to pay off debt … as far as I understand it … while BoE is reducing the QE reversal in preparation for lower rates as far as I can see. Rates were higher for longer, sadly.

Meanwhile, 9% yield, and a 5.5p return in December on top of 1.75p quarterly means I am adding as funds elsewhere clear.

This time last year I had a heavy position averaging 75p and now I’m lighter down to around 45p average so has been a hard but good trading share for me.

GLA

That said LIO dropping £1 bn or so in a 1/4 is not small change and without doubt a warning given that FTSE100 and FTSE250 have broadly traded sideways since the GE - but then again we saw one heck of a US led sell off early August with both national and international concerns taking toll and Sept. Oct. historically poor months for equities.

Looking across at PMI today ... it still trades at 59p and hit 50p low last year, with Jupiter 87p also hitting low 70s earlier in the year so there is a potential for another 20% or so to be lost here ... but I reckon we are seeing mischief from Deutche aka Numis taking a heavy short.

Time will tell.

"The early spike." C'mon ... 2022/2023 was a torrid period for bonds where the so called spike on UK Gilts was 3.7-4.27 19th Sept-Oct. 12 2022 post the Truss budget with much being priced in beforehand with LDI woes that Truss knew nothing about having sacked Treasury advisors.

Bailey announcing that UK would be selling bonds bought under QE at a loss some time before the Truss budget led to the considerable rise before the Truss budget making the Truss spike look far worse than actually was the case in so far as 10 yr Gilts are concerned.

Myself I look more towards FX and index linked Gilts that seem to be holding up, along with BoE reducing bond selling going forwards in anticipation of lower rates going forwards so whilst others might be at panic stage, I'm not there by a long shot - maybe I'm wrong, time will tell.

“Getting back to where Liz was”

Long way off Liz Truss.

Bond yields from the link Trek are back to July 2024 just before the GE.

People panic, I make money.

As Trek will know, I’m a yield player looking for high yield, in bombed out sectors, that are panic priced.

My view, as acknowledged by results report today, is that we are seeing Tory Press led anti-labour scaremongering that kicked off with the WFA.

The WFA … £1.5 bn quid, what a fuss over a small sum that 800,000 were entitled to but didn’t for whatever reason claim anyway.

£ is up to $1.30 and recent history high down from $1.34 peak, and €1.19 …. So as I said, I’m seeing consumer panic.

Happy to profit from it.

“ The savers racing to withdraw their pensions ahead of Reeves’s Budget” Looks to be an additional problem … scaremongering by the Tory press.

When will the masses learn … the alt-right elite want your money.

;)

“ You are having a laugh. Battery storage is a non starter for years yet LOL..‘

I usually put my money where my mouth is … topped up £15K here at 490 and another £10K in battery storage taking profits from Asia.

GLA

"learned NOTHING from 1997"

"North Sea Gas in particular is a transition fuel" .... We knew this 3 years ago from Seplat. US Nat Gas prices hit 30 year lows in real terms in March 2024 - it's a volatile commodity. I was an NGSP buyer at the time ... the UK can't compete with cheap suppliers from abroad, and as we saw with Hurricane Energy, North Sea extraction is both costly and high risk.

Ask yourself which political party mentioned the BESS storage issues during the 2024 GE. Not one. So either UK politics doesn't know, doesn't want to say or some mixture of both.

Fundamentally, UK is still paying the price for the Brexit voting cretins, and that's not going to go away in the shorter term.

Moreover, the Tories have learned from 1997 in shifting further right with Blair, nor Labour in shifting further left in appointing Corbyn ...

... so we are stuck with Starmer's version of center ground politics in trying to pander to the Unions, the bigger ones of which I hasten to add supported remainin in the EU, and quite rightly are looking for compensatory pay for their members given UK's inflation over the past 8 years, not all of which is down to Brexit, but also encompasses the consequences of Tory austerity in decimating the NHS the past 14 years, that turned out to be a bad call given the pandemic of 2020, along with the inability of UK to play commodity markets by not investing in energy storage, since as a member of the EU, UK relied up the EU to store our surplus energy.

Fundamentally, the UK is paying the price for a poor quality very uniformed electorate swayed by the garbage written in the Daily Mail, Daily Express, Daily Telegraph and now GB News.

"Gov should be setting up a Norwegian style sovereign wealth fund IMO. Investing in UK including North Sea gas."

The UK as a fossil fuel producer is both high cost and high risk - where the UK itself had a nice party on fossil fuels until 2006. The UK's windfall tax was only feasible for the first year of the Ukraine crisis. When that war ends, expect to see oil down to $50 with oversupply.

On the renewables front, Starmer is quite right - but the UK is suffering because the Energy Balancing Mechanism is dysfunctional with UK switching over to gas rather than battery storage this past year - but these problems are being sorted out, albeit slowly.

The longer term problem for the energy sector itself, is oversupply - but as things stand, and with Theresa May's Energy Cap, that helped bankrupt smaller providers in the UK, leading to higher consumer costs now to pay for the bankruptices ...

.. the UK is paying the price for poor governance.

"The market hates uncertainty ,waiting 4 months to do a budget and frightening the life out of everyone ,shows me we are being governed by idiots."

The "idiots" are the ones responsible for putting the UK in the current position. £32 bn paid to the EU over the past two years alone to settle Brexit - for what? A weaker £ and growth based upon immigration, to replace the 3 million or so extra UK pensioners, with low birth rates and emmigration for a smaller Economy in real terms and CPTPP jam tomorrow promises.

The UK has been unwinding QE the past few years keeping interest rates higher than needs be, whilst political parties are being pulled to the right by Farage and his clueless cretins, leading to a Trade Union counter reaction pulling Labour to the left.

As it stands, the £ is strong on the back of higher interest rates, and a weakening $.

Still … I’m quietly re-loading up here … cleared a bunch at 84p on the spike after the GE and have bought sold down to 76p … what was the low last year? 62p or thereabouts so there is a lower end but equally don’t forget the rally last November through December.

Agreed Silverblade… delaying the budget until the end of the month is a big blooper by Labour.

"That is the bond market giving it's view on the forthcoming budget and it is not going to end well in the equity space if they are correct."

Labour have left too long a gap between throwing the bad news into the kitchen sink, and the actual budget itself. A similar mistake was made by Truss.

Sell the news buy the fact in my view.

"What good have they done for anyone other than public sector pay rises"

... £10 in 2016 buys the equivalent of £13.30 in 2024 ... around 80p of that inflationary increase is down to Brexit.

You can't blame Labour for the poor choice of the unemployed and pensioners of 2016.

Fundamentally, the big mistake from Labour was to talk the Economy down, with a budget at the end of October as too big a gap - the budget should have been declared ASAP.

Still, September/October has been pretty crap for UK the past few years, while I’m dripping China boost holdings into UK for the Santa rally.

Current yield on the portfolio sits at 11% and I need 5% for a more than comfortable life so sitting back and letting the market do its stuff.