Member Info for technick

The volatility here over the last few days made me realise that traders are jumping in and out of a moving train. The placing only strengthens the business, puts more shares into the market and gives the company £8m to secure its future. This will go back up shortly but traders are jumping off the train and will be jumping back on it next week with news... enjoy the ride everyone and stay safe

this is going to be an interesting, setting up for next weeks news, MM making their market :)

agree, large trades being mopped up

I am a LTH here and believe this will return next week or the week after once this over reaction ends. There are some large trades happening telling me that there is an appetite for these shares. So despite the temporary fall, the sells are being mopped up.

6m tests at £8 and 60% margin is around £30m profit in that production run

mike, in danger of sounding like punit, I never understood forward selling, do you mean they are selling shares they've accumulated knowing they'll buy them from the new II investors?

We will see £2 and £3 again soon, but not this week.

think I'll join you middle, a walk along the beach! I agree, the business is stronger, well funded, and has multiple revenue streams coming in quick order. Its the ill-informed who are selling but long term that will change

From WHO

Globally, an estimated 71 million people have chronic hepatitis C virus infection. A significant number of those who are chronically infected will develop cirrhosis or liver cancer.

It’s treatable, so potential I guess is a £100m+ market. Say even at 10% that alone supports current market cap in my opinion

Hi Olderandwiser, looking at the market HCV is a higher value test compared to C19. I found the following... so take a mid point with the same manufacture cost as the sars test... ca. £3 from the RNS the other day. So £30 profit per test imo

HCV RNA tests can cost between $13 and $100 per test, and the cost of diagnosis and monitoring may increase the overall cost of curing hepatitis C by one-third in some settings. In contrast currently available HCV antigen tests cost between $10 and $50 per test.

Punter, completely agree, they don’t link the volatility with poor choices around when to sell, the herd panics based on theories about what certain events will do to share price and it feeds the share movement. The whole day trading mentality is what causes the share price to move, not the announcements themselves. The fundamentals are strong, the needs is great, and the product line exceptional, this is a good share to invest in imo.

Hi Olderandwiser, it’s the same manufacturer, genedrive have a long standing relationship with cytiva/GE as was for lyophilised reagent. They have an agreement with Sysmex to distribute the HCV test in Asia and Africa and a distributor in the U.K. for their antibiotic induced hearing loss test. DOD sales are direct with the US Army. HCV sales were waiting for WHO pre-qualification. Everything now lined up and the c19 opportunity additive in a major way?

There have been large buys end of most days to take advantage of selling during the day. Big buyers in the background.

The next RNS will either confirm CE approvals or some commercial partnership. The company has confirmed 10,000 tests per hour and a minimum of £6 profit on each. That’s over £1m profit a day! The next weeks are going to be great for long term holders. In parallel the company now has 3 tests on market just announced before C19, these underpin the current MC so C19 isn’t yet factored in. The noise will soon dissipate and the climb return. Perhaps an rns this morning or later today. It can come at any time...

Put it another way, I’ll buy your shares from you for 80p, heck 88p!

They agreed the price when the share was 88p...

Damned if they do, damned if they don’t. They’ve done everything right... just seems unfair because of the rising share price. All will come good.

thanks @teabiscuit

Thanks Ghia, that will hopefully have been anticipated with the differential in share price from the placing price and the exclusivity of the placing. I can see why it wouldn't apply to the smaller PI placement which is probably why they split it. Let's see...

.. I'm hearing a lot of people referring to 'churning new shares' and 'forward selling', the assumption I'm making is people think the institutional investors will quickly turn their shares over, I'm not sure that is strictly correct as they will be restricted from doing that for a period on the basis of their discounted allocation. Are people talking bs or please tell me why they don't always do that and make 10% immediately on every injection of cash, it certainly sounds like people using buzz words that they've heard before without knowing the mechanics of these large investments. Please help someone, am I wrong?