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Hey Porky!
I'll get some of those to him if we get another chance, but for some I think there's info on at the moment
1. Care Home trial with Prof Martin replied last week to a few investors, Dean and Kat at least I think. Trial was delayed at the end there yes, but it's near completion and still on-going. So we have some ideas about why - Novacyt has a lot of Gen 3 tests about to drop, it would make sense to extend trial and try some of that tech in at least a couple of the care homes. Personal ETA late November there.
2. So yes Moonshot is interpreted as the testing framework going ahead. Moonshot when you zoom in on it is the supportive framework to the primary suppliers and expansion of the national micro-biology network. When you look at the extra tests coming in and the numbers, much of it is temporary and experimental. We need those cheap LFTs, but they cause issues - like California at the weekend, antigen tests were needing retested - raising overall costs further, so they just moved on now to a mega Perkin Elmer super lab.
Primary suppliers are who are the permanent installation of testing for years to come. The PrimerDesigns and the Randoxes and the Perkin Elmers etc. You never really hear about them. Novacyt is unique in that they're innovating new products, almost like the DHSC R&D team. I think post pandemic we will still see LAMP and ePCR installations fro Optigene and LGC. They have great throughput, though obviously major drawbacks to qPCR, but in terms of mass pandemic screening, very good. LFTs are nice for population screening - but not great with asymptomatic - though many are trying to suggest they handle low viral loads but the reality is quite different. When it comes to Innova etc - it's about availability. Lots of LFT's were promised but didn't deliver. By Spring though the labs will have lots of amazing throughput and lots of amazing de-centralised PCR mobile units all over the country. That desperation will subside. This will go full circle and the LFT's that succeed going ahead will likely be some form of multiplex LFT if they make a decent one. But for today, if you have an approved test for sale - Gov will take it!
3. Mullis said capacity is 'over' 10 million a month. He is super cagey here. He also said capacity grew 100 times. His quotes on this were tracked in September - 100 times from his stated dates actually means 20 million. We don't promote that idea as it's super rampy, but that's Mullis' words. Also 3 million antibody capacity, is that extra to the 10 million? So 13 million at least? Shrug, but 10 million, doubtful now, will be more when update given I'd bet.
4. Nope. Zero chance of finding out the OEMs unless they slip up. I have an email from Halo today, where they said they couldn't name the supplier as part of the agreement (I'd asked them for an article coming tonight to confirm if it was PrimerDesign). Agreements entail keeping manufacturer private. Message me on Twitter fo
Hey guys,
Tried at best as possible to fit in your questions and know reading back over it myself today there's still a lot of ground which could be covered in a more granular level. If you have more questions please do keep them coming.
Maybe we can get a follow up sometime!
In case anyone hasn't read the transcript yet:
https://novacytinsider.com/lennie-trium-1/
Thanks guys, and feedback on the site itself and what you want from it is super appreciated too. Still a lot of work to be done there, and it's a bit rough around the edges, but it's coming together.
I was a bit disappointed that the PI World session this week couldn't get scheduled, was really looking forward to a deep dive from an experienced fund manager and stock picker.
If you're not sure who Richard is (sorry tend to not post surnames on forums as they will show up on Google) check him out here in the interview:
https://novacytinsider.com/pi-world-on-novacyt-with-richard-leonard-and-andy-brough/
He offers his apologies as it's just too hard to fit in right now. His day to day is still very long so time out for this is difficult during the week.
However!
We've set up a Q&A for an article, which is super of him, so fire away, ask your questions regarding Novacyt and I'll relay them over to him this week!
Versa*** about to launch, either this week or next mostly likely.
And maybe our Jack is at it again!
This company is moving at phenomenal speeds. Gen 3 already in a single year.
I'm sorry but this is the disruptive innovator in the testing space. Everything else is just hype.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CG2GNAwhk7I/?igshid=wxuje13ue37d
Hey Wilson!
Yes and it's one of those things where bad news doesn't just drip in it seems to just come crashing down around you!
Easy to read into it all being connected but the PI World session with Tamzin on Novacyt was a long shot. It was a last minute negotiation which they loved but there was already a full schedule ahead for Richard and Tamzin this week. Last I spoke to Richard he said they were trying to make it happen for Thursday this week, but now they're looking at early November.
Will poke them this weekend and see if we can get something more concrete. It's better that it's done right I guess as it was looking very much like a rushed job in the end.
Everyone loves the ideas though, it's hard to find a company that you could literally discuss for hours and still not cover it from an investor's POV!
There is a fund selling some of their position. It's not unique to Novacyt either, this fund holds 3 stocks we watch and they all move in the same way at exactly the same time (actually there is a 4th and it follows the exact same movements). Novacyt is just greatly affected due to the incredible rises lately. Once the order is done it will stabilise. Nothing has changed with this stock, all the best news is still to come. Q4 alone has incredible newsflow.
https://novacytinsider.com/oct-fund/
This is still a low float stock with 71 million shares roughly. When funds start moving money around, it will more drastically, both ways. It does cause panic though, and to be honest, I think brokers likely take advantage of that panic and make a little extra money piggybacking off of fund orders that come through.
There was a story planted to smear the DHSC and UK Gov in the media last night and unfortunately Novacyt got caught in the middle.
There were a number of DHSC contracts being negotiated, and some are still on-going. The first major one we saw was for NHS hospital NPT's. This contract took months of negotiation after a review of demand, hospital needs and competing products.
In England alone there are over 1250 hospitals, and these Q16 and Q32 devices and supply were being offered across the UK to any NHS Trust and hospital within that needed them. It was never expected that every single hospital in the UK would be ready to adopt next-gen technology. Expected hospital uptake over next 6 months is around 1,000 units and is still expected to be around 1,000 units. That has not changed and Novacyt have confirmed as much today.
There are various reasons for certain Trusts not taking these and unfortunately those reasons, which are good reasons, were made out to be a case that PrimerDesign's devices were being 'rejected' by some Trusts.
That's a mis-characterisation of the process and the media article was filled with loaded expressions intending to do damage to the reputations of all involved, chiefly the UK Government, but also anyone associated with them - such as the DHSC and by extension PrimerDesign.
NHS Trusts vary wildly in budgets and staff capabilities. Some are resourced with ground-breaking technology with some of the greatest minds in the UK. At the other end of the scale, we have highly capable and caring staff, but they do not have experience with testing protocols. This pandemic is changing that and more staff are being trained.
The hope is that in time all NHS hospitals will have high-throughput portable test devices, and to really ensure that happens, Novacyt is developing a new user-friendly process which removes the need for pipettes. The sample will simply be placed in a reaction tube and ready to go in the automatic Q-series device.
The Q32 partnered with the WinterPlex assay is currently the no.1 near patient covid-19 setup in the world. It has the ability to save lives in wards by separating patients appropriately and has an incredible throughput of 30 tests for hour, or 30 tests per 90 minutes when used with the flu/covid/RSV assay.
The existing Q16 and Q32 devices that are rolling into NHS Trusts at the moment, and hopefully care home and other settings this quarter, will all be able to use the new upgrades when launched.
These units are not simply for covid-19, they are part of an installation of PrimerDesign deep into the NHS testing network and Novacyt will be supporting staff training, product upgrades and test development for years beyond the pandemic.
Work of this scale takes time, but it is in process. These units are landing daily in hospitals and staff are beginning to use them.
Small NHS Trusts are right now becoming high-throughput de-centralised test centres - Novacyt is changing N
Hi all!
Sorry for the last minute head's up on this but there's going to be a webinar today with fund managers who will be looking at Novacyt. We've sent questions in on your behalf, ones from common themes that go around the forum that I've seen you guys discuss lately.
You can also message the host Tamzin with any questions, not sure how many she can fit in but please don't miss this, its very rare we get a chance to see how fund managers think, (ones with over 30 years experience and have backgrounds in investing at major investment houses).
They've been buying Novacyt lately at recent highs, time to see why!
Tweet with link
https://twitter.com/TaylorQuant/status/1319200912192266241?s=20
Direct link and registration is free:
https://www.piworld.co.uk/events/
Enjoy, and if you can't make it, no problem there will be an article covering it tomorrow.
@Louis
No idea Louis, but there is something really interesting regarding an old investor there. That's for the French guys to finish looking into and will be known late October. Problem is we have no share register so there's a lot of caution when it comes to naming who's has been buying Novacyt.
I have a big mouth too so that doesn't help when getting info either! But yes, something interesting shortly on a fund, think the French guys just want to confirm before putting it out there.
@EBV @Wilson
Apparently it's now a game of cat and mouse with institutional investors. Novacyt's board is frustrated from what I'm told on the poor institutional investment so far (hence you've seen them go all in with 3 brokerages, all with various clients and research resources).
The problem goes back quite a long way. The last time any research was done on Novacyt was April 2017 by Edison:
https://postimg.cc/Wdb79RSS
So now we only have NUMIS who to our knowledge have published institutional research. NUMIS have of course forced Novacyt's hand here with figures that I'm sure the CEO isn't too pleased with. When companies perform, they would like to see that performance reflected in forecasts. It is only for this reason that there's speculation Novacyt will publish Q3 figures.
It's a rare occasion that PI's are ahead of the game, we're all likely have much better holdings than funds buying in lately. Many institutions still do not know Novacyt's name. There's a lot of movement to look forward to in 2021, but these things do take time and Novacyt apparently share our frustrations. They hold the key though, Q3. Why not use it.
Hey guys,
We've made a correction to today's article on the PE ratio.
Currently Novacyt's cap is around £700 million and projected revenues for the 12 months ahead are expected to be greater than that. The article didn't reflect that correctly and has been amended with a less forward looking range of 2020 Year End forecasts from 200 million to 450 million. That should be easier to come to terms with, and when we have a little more info we can do something more interesting speculatively for 2021.
A lot for this year depends on how much of the two tenders around £468 million in total, announced by the government are actually for 2020 and will be paid within Q4.
The ranges do not account for any new large government contracts in other areas as that's entirely speculative, but would changes things significantly.
Hopefully Q3 results will be published shortly and that will give us a more information to work with. Everyone's waiting for that now, not just us private investors, but institutions also. It will make all the difference having those numbers and unlock Novacyt's potential going ahead. The other issue is that the recent government tenders may not be included in Q3, but we would still get a good look at how sales have been increasing month on month over the summer, and perhaps even some WinterPlex orders from September.
Morning guys,
The Novacyt Insider has launched and we will get a poll up shortly so you can choose not just the direction the site takes, but the next feature you'd like to see there.
https://novacytinsider.com
Speak soon and what an open!
@Quickdraw Thanks for the head's up!
@Wilson Quick just messaged me privately about this - we really wanted to do a comprehensive job on a lot of speculative and non-speculative thinking and valuations that have been crunched since the AGM. Twitter has become too restrictive now and is looking less like a good way to consolidate information taken from many users on something as complex as Novacyt's next moves. They have a number of balls rolling, more than anyone initially suspected and they've really managed to completely blindside the market and investors, quite spectacularly. Overall, you will likely now not be able to find a single investor who entirely understands and can communicate the entire current and prospective R&D, as well as the vertical and revenue generating acquisitions they are targeting. Add to that the institutional moves, and the understanding of those institutions powers to change the share price and things rapidly become far too bloated for social media. Even this forum's character limits and format make Novacyt a Group that cannot be discussed in the depth that it should be. The situation is very different with more straightforward stocks - many are simply speculative in the sense of 'will they or won't they' and that's easier to digest!
A new method that is much more informative and flexible (while still being punchy and fun to read) is in the works as we speak and should not take too long either. We could be talking within a few days to a couple of weeks max.
Done right, and with a little support, I think you'll love what's coming and we will all benefit as long term shareholders - the Mid Cap foundations have been set formally now by Novacyt, but the market hasn't really caught on yet. Let's help change that.
Big market! Thanks will look that up!
Hey guys, just looking into BIDS recently and was wondering if they're ever made any signals about their intentions in Asia?