Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Something on best spend with their windfall would maybe be a good read Porks. Think there’s a lot of expectation of an M&A as that’s super buzzy, but pandemic life science company valuations are high. Hate to say it but, maybe it’s better they don’t buy a company right now, unless it’s something like IT-IS again or a distributor. Some smart tech asset poached out of a small startup and university then they R&D it out commercially.. Again it was Abbott’s call that sort of put the warning out there and looking around they’re right. Market is consolidating again and prices are Michelin.
Problem with that sort of thing is people can take it bad, but it’s not, R&D is simply best ROI at the moment. Will think about it.. maybe something bullish on the last years success but everyone knows that stuff now.. thing I’m conscious of is how sensitive this period is for NCYT and eyes and opinions are everywhere. It’s all very heated and a bit toxic too. Even quietly nuked some content recently around sensitive contracts..
any ideas for an article give me a shout though :)
Strange times when we find ourselves lauding a marketing communication from a broker for accuracy.
Still playing with fire, fingers crossed we have cause for an upgrade from them in Feb or March at the latest. Notice a supposedly separate pilot Novacyt is involved with ends then, but some tech like LAMP could be there and awaiting validation for all we know, again holding up a decision by DHSC on prospective solutions.
The forecasts for 2021 and 2022 came from Novacyt’s broker Numis on Friday. Around £310m for ‘21 and £170m for ‘22.
The ‘22 upgrade is interesting, they have extended visibility now which they hadn’t back in October. Numis are really good by the way, very accurate, look how close they got on NCYTs 2020. They’re like that across the board though, rated no. 1, hence why I like to quote their figures (notice I used 300m for the Insider article too to lower expectations a bit as things were getting a bit heated pre-RNS).
We don’t really know what that pipeline and order flow into ‘22 is yet amongst PIs and perhap best we don’t for now. Let GM get past this sensitive stage and then we’ll see where we’re at. This is pivotal - either Novacyt gets a bud revenue bump from a major deal, and gets shackled again as a result. Or they’re looking at a mostly B2B order flow and are unshackled to market themselves to institutions.
Latter will likely see Numis’ figures play out and they alluded to that in the note with a line about Novacyt moving away from being dependent on gov orders.
Sorry if I’ve offended you Orien in some way. But that’s how I’m seeing things personally at the moment. Interesting crossroads were at now.
Also worth checking Abbott v Thermos annual revenue calls, they have different drop offs for the covid tests. I didn’t see the latter but Quickshot here send his notes over, so maybe you could ask him more, but Abbott was far more bullish.
Suspect this is due to some variance in covid product lines.
It's when times are bad they crawl out of the woodwork.
We need more Porky right now, not less.
Can feel repetitive banging the same drum, but new eyes are always reading, it's not all just about long term holders. New people are always getting informed - if not, they'll be mis-informed by some troll.
Keep it up Porky. When the time is right Novacyt will lay it all out on the table and it'll not need so much PI promotion. That official roadmap will be security for PIs and unlock mcap.
2/2
With that in mind though, then there are other ideas that can be played with within research itself and that's what I'm up to at the moment. Not looking at building anything like the Insider again - that was fun and was an interesting way to assimilate information from a broad group, filter it, then nudge investors as to the direction the company might be heading.
Those articles take a ton of work though - people criticise that stuff as being 'speculative' or 'rampy' but there's a lot of people doing a lot of digging behind the scenes before anything like that can be written. I could write all day a number of rampy articles talking absolute nonsense to push a stock, but it would get completely savaged, and I'd get kicked out of the private groups for it.
Ultimately though - it's not a good way to get information across. Too much of my own personality there and it has a newsy approach to information in an age when they're's too much news. Basically now I'm interested in displaying information easily. Making information accessible without searching and reading a ton of creative writing. Not just for Novacyt either, an increasing number of disruptive stocks in the tech space (that aren't binary of course).
There are some other ideas I'm toying with too but won't get into those here, but hopefully the site will be useful/interesting/new.
If there's a way to build a premium community around it once it has value, and if it could offer us a safe haven to research equities and access information quickly and easily then I would definitely love that (that's what I'd love to be a part of myself).
It will definitely look a lot different to the Insider though, from where it's at now.
This is also maybe a good time to open up about what you guys like/don't like/want from an equities website. You have someone developing a site at the moment, so feel free to influence the direction!
In the meantime, apologies the Insider articles aren't happening. I just can't take on the writing there (and the on-going development it needs - it's still pretty unfinished and raw), while getting a new more conceptual project going and of course trading and investing my own account at the same time. Something has to give so the daily articles are out for now.
Also the Insider site was a bit Tay-centric, hopefully the next site is much more neutral in that way too. If it happens, driving me nuts at the moment.
Anyway, cheers Porky, will give the community aspect more thought. The elephant in the room though is - how much are people prepared to pay to be a part of a high-end investment community they trust? Are you making money from the information you get in there? Is the analysis coming from the top guys there really making sense - is it a complete picture? How much is filtered high-end analysis worth to your bottom line.
That's the question I ask myself when researching investment clubs - will I make more money by subbing than from the
Hey Porky!
Not around as oddly enough I 'm working on another site at the moment so it raised a few eyebrows this morning when you posted this! Now people are asking who you are. Coincidence no doubt though!
Read the comments here and agree with the criticisms. The reality is nuanced and something I've been somewhat privy to lately as I'm a member of a number of private groups, some Novacyt specific, some not.
There's no way we could have the entire conversation here in a single post but criticisms on groupthink are extremely valid and I've myself fallen prey to it to a number of times - missing key perspectives simply because a fundamental idea was assumed as a fact, went unchallenged, and every assumption afterwards based on it was also wrong. This has happened with NCYT many times in 2020 - it's not always for the worst either, sometimes we have missed huge plays, simply because we have been conditioned into assuming the company operates within a narrower purview. From an investment perspective, this is catastrophic both ways. How do you avoid this? Well you need critical thinkers. This is entirely different to people who are simply dismissive - and that's what you get for the most part with a lot of sites - a lot of 'rival' cheerleaders wasting everyone's time with mis-information or simply talking down an idea for no good reason (who remembers NCYT's mobile platforms here being dismissed as a simply 'a few vans'). Those mobile platforms went on to be the greatest pivot the company has ever gone through, yet many dismissed the mobile news in June, especially on other biotech boards. One bad actor can cause a lot of trouble and many missed the opportunity over that sort of lie.
This criticism from triumph:
"A place where those with a huge financial interest and would lose their shirts off their back if the company fails can gather and discuss how brilliant the company they invested in is without anyone bringing you back to earth. What could possibly go wrong?"
That's the status quo already in most places unfortunately. A small group of investors in early come in and push a speculative stock hard then bail. A lot of what they're saying is mis-information too. Not something I want to get into here, but it's rife.
Solution? Personally I think anything at scale that doesn't have a strong enforced set of rules will eventually break down. You need to set a culture, like a workplace, that's good-natured, critical and open-minded. As diverse as possible to keep new ideas and perspectives coming.
I'm not the right guy to build that as I don't have the money (L2 data to this site costs 100s of thousands a year). I did check recently to see if it was viable. You also need tools to share and find previously shared information. Can't do that on Twitter or here. Both platforms better for arguing than research.
And that's what you need really. A research community with tools. Think like financially motivated researchers and not 'i
HarChris,
Clearly your finger's on the pulse with the pros/cons. That's it as the core and that's why no-one can value the business and that's why everyone is perplexed at Novacyt's reluctance at releasing trading updates between mandatory periods (personally I'm okay with that as for me, the ethics of boasting about profits while working with the NHS is repugnant - I like the investment game, but I have values that I'm uncomfortable with being encroached - but again, I don't like to moralise so won't dwell on it, it's not my place).
Can we agree that Novacyt is doing better in H2 than H1 2020? If we can then by the same logic we're saying H1 2021 will be significantly better due to increased product line revenue streams. I think it would be anti-scientific to suggest testing is about to drop off so if anyone's in opposition to that, please properly flesh it out, and I mean all the way out, I want to see ground up numbers on how when cases are so high that testing numbers are somehow about to drop off.
If it's the case that H2 2020 and H2 2021 numbers are roundly agreed to be better than H1 2020, then what will Novacyt do with that cash given 1: their R&D speed of 1 product per 3 weeks and 2: their proven M&A growth strategy?
Personally I think those basic facts without getting into a debate over covid testign revenues in H2 2021 and H1 2022 and beyond, make it pretty obvious that Novacyt will acquire a revenue generative non-covid asset shortly and VersaLab + PROmate will enable that asset to be rolled out to a new market in a way that existing players will be locked out from due to PROmate's patents in application.
I drop V-Lab and PROmate into this here because although they're distinct (one is a service, the other a shortcut PCR technology enabling out-of-the-lab diagnostics with quantitative lab accurate results), they're also complimentary - you can now roll out a next generation of portable PCR devices to private businesses to a less skilled workforce to population screen for anything you develop tests for.
That's the revolution Novacyt is going for here. I'm not sure we'll be talking about Q16's or Q32s in years to come when we look at this company. VersaLab sure, but the workflow technology and devices will be different.
Any inkling as to what that will look like in Q1/2 2021 will uncap this share price. Mullis has proven.. earnest, ambitious, opportunistic and importantly - aggressive - so far, so I'm backing him to pull the rabbit out of the hat here and go mid cap as a next gen decentralised PCR screening company.
That's what I'd add to the pro list and the only reason I'm sticking about. They can develop new covid tests (I think we will see a quantitative antibody test and/or a antigen covid LFT test and possibly even a new device from IT-IS, soon), and these will generate great revenues - but it's the forward looking still that gives us the market cap unlocks.
Sorry if that's off-track, but agree wit
Agreeing with Kaeren/Porky/AirlineBoy
It's already done. The monthly profits are better than majority of AIM and many main market) mid caps, and deals which could drop jaw-breaking figures are rolling alongside them.
The products are out and as well as new ones about to launch in Q1 and we will have an almost 6 month run rate on those to the 2021 interims. None of that includes any Gen 4 tech which we have zero clue about, but will certainly come as they have an R&D rate of one new product every 3 weeks in 2020 (17 products in 52 weeks, yes, mental, count them - and it's set to continue).
Those 2021 interim figures will be unlike anything anyone posting on this forum has ever seen before.
Maybe Mullis drops some new M&A on the market too - that uncaps the share price if it provides an outlook where £100m per annum revenues with growth are expected 2022 and beyond (of course I personally see that happening, and even better, hence why I'm still here).
Then the share price is anybody's game. Maybe 20, maybe 100. Pull a number out of your hat because an uncapped share price for a diagnostics company is 4 to 10x as standard.
And that's why you have regulars spamming this forum.
And that's why you have regulars spamming Twitter and creating funny websites zealously following Novacyt - because nothing has this potential on AIM. Nothing that's ticking all the boxes.
Personally, I'd be tempted to sit back and watch the fireworks ;)
Hope you had a good Christmas and hope we chat again before the New Year. Nice work Kaeren, Porky, and all you guys here (just name dropped last two). You don't need to be here - you could just be chilling while letting this thing take its course, but here you are helping those struggling and saving them from being misled by bad actors. I don't have the stamina for it, I'm glad you do. It doesn't mean much but you have my respect for sticking it out here.
Hat's off to you all. Cheers!
Learned so much from you all this year and genuinely feel #NCYT is the best group out of investment circles online. There's a diligence, honesty and work ethic that allowed a lot of onlookers to pick Novacyt out of the non-performers this year. That has value - monetary value - and that's what the market is about after all. That can be done in two ways - hyping a stock that's not-delivering anything, yet you trade the pump, or you can find a great company that delivers and everyone does well.
This place is the latter, and more respectable and credible for it. This boards' work at pushing this stock and Novacyt's non-stop delivery of new products to the NHS are aligned. Few can say that elsewhere. Investors will be rewarded next year as revenues are revealed along with Gen 4 technology and new deals. It's not easy to hold an AIM stock for long, but we've found a keeper and an ethical one doing good and saving lives over Christmas.
We all need a break though because it's hard constant work - I see you guys dealing with the trolls and bad actors trying to spread misinformation. So virtual toast to you all, have a great Christmas guys, cheers!
Nice find B2HSL , going to share that, all adds to the puzzle.
A lot of people watch this company, but obvious signs have been missed for sure.
Hi troublesome,
not something I'd know. Only repeating the MHRA guidance, and not for me to interpret there re: oseltamivir. It's still used by the NHS, it has had some bad press, but it's not important, simply an example the MHRA gave. Different patients for RSV, Flu Norovirus, Covid etc have similar symptoms and all get different drugs, not just for the actual virus they're infected with suitability by age, complications etc.
Not something I'd be fixated on, we deal with the testing here! Leave the treatment to the therapeutics experts or contact MHRA or NHS for concerns there I guess.
Evening B2HS2L!
All we know is that Q-series production stood at 300 units in August - that's when Rishi Sunak visited the manufacturer (which we've subsequently bought for any new readers) and then set new production targets after the DHSC contract for the next few years. We know the bonus is 1.9 million the board if they hit the new production targets, but we don't know what they are. You don't get 1.9million handed out for a mere 10 or 20% increase I'd imagine, so there's a lot of very interested parties wanting to know what the run is like per month now.
Either way, best we can say is it is definitely higher than 300.
Rishi Sunak visit: https://www.rishisunak.com/news/rishi-visits-technological-frontline-battle-against-covid-19
Thanks Routy for that link by the way, don't think anyone else even noticed him visiting our Q-series maker which now seems an obvious sign something major was in the works - NHS rollout and then the acquisition.
Interesting that a month after the visit we got the NHS hospital contract for the Q-series etc. That was hard won, was highly competitive, but in the end, you need the best tech, and the most accurate. Nothing is better and more versatile than a Q32 armed with WinterPlex. 30 multiplex tests in 90 minutes, fully automated with real time analysis. Weekly monitoring of any mutations etc too now. Incredible tech, can't wait to see the next gen that's coming hopefully this month by the indications from their Tweets.
In terms of what those Q-series units generate in terms of supply sales, there has been some serious work done on forecasting those, with a base 300 per month + supply, to various production target increase increments. Not sure I'm supposed to be sharing this stuff yet, but I'll link to an example of the lower end:
https://postimg.cc/njjXdvYM
Higher end, where production starts at 300 and increases steadily has crazy numbers so I haven't linked to those. If I end up asking mods to delete this post it's because I was told off by the spreadsheet creator! WinterPlex in these is something else again, and forecasts on pure WinterPlex running on these might get done for comparison. Global sales figures will be very interesting.
There's a brilliant spreadsheet by Accionsita who has been tracking the global distributors for the Q-series machines and PrimerDesign test kit supply for them too:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/foo0uph0o2wuv9p/Primerdesign%20-%20genesig%20List%20distr%20%26%20countries%20ver%2003%20Nov%202020.xlsx?dl=0
Gives you an idea of the scale of what's happening here and why Novacyt acquired IT-IS the manufacturer last month. Genuinely incredible and highly aggressive play by Mullis this year. There's a reason we're not getting trading updates until they're mandated - you don't go around boasting of sales like this during a pandemic. But we're all getting rewarded for backing the right team soon.
Evening all!
Been an eventful past few weeks and it's been interesting tracking the change in Moonshot from a somewhat rainbow chasing strategy into a more realistic infrastructural change to the microbiology network.
The UK Gov is moving now towards asset based testing, which the NHS can use for diagnostics beyond covid - we've seen that with ePCR, LAMP and Q16 and Q32 installations in the past two weeks. These are significant changes for the NHS - the biggest change they're seen in diagnostics in our lifetimes. Almost an entire rewrite of the network into rapid de-centralised testing at everywhere from your small NHS trust to the local clinic.
Boris significantly stepped up the PCR testing, and also the MHRA guidance has been found, which was sent to NHS areas in Wales, England, Scotland and N.Ireland.
The MHRA guidance, which can be found in the article at the end (the article has screengrabs of the important parts), shows where and when multiplex testing for Flu and RSV is going to be used in both primary and secondary care.
Symptomatic patients will get multiplex testing, and asymptomatic with covid only testing.
How that works for Novacyt, is that the Q16 can use the regular test (and has the Easy-Cov test version for simplicity), and the more powerful Q32 can be used with WinterPlex, the multiplex for Flu and RSV, for separating patients between wards. This is crucial now, and the death rate More than doubles if you get flu and covid, so just one mistake by letting a flu patient into a covid ward will spell disaster. That's why the rapid Q32's are being installed daily now, and 86 hospitals were done last week alone. The Q32 uses the gold standard test of course, and has been mass tested which means the DHSC has cleared it for national rollouts. No mass testing means you don't get a national rollout now - the government has changed on that. Too much criticism of new tests, hence the change in strategy lately to a more cautious DHSC.
The example used in the guidance is the use of oseltamivir, an excellent flu drug which can quickly be administered to a patient after the Q32 tests 30 people with WinterPlex. Those with flu get the drug and put into flu wards. Rest into RSV wards (kids usually), and the covid patients into covid wards. This is not the possible strategy, it is the actual strategy UK gov is rolling out daily. See UK gov website and NCYT RNS in Sept.
For a wider look at the facts from the MHRA etc see this week's article:
https://novacytinsider.com/boris-johnson-500k/
Also note the April contract to centralised testing has ended and closing amount released. Current contract for Nov onwards is being negotiated and is likely to be up to 2 years judging by logistics tenders for the post and collection of the lab test kits of which Novacyt is one primary supplier.
Current expectations would be the new tender announced for centralised testing this month, and the care home trial on Q16s ends now too. E
Wilson, just published now, and have an update coming in a minute. Nothing big but had reply from Halo, they've confirmed that there was a supplier but couldn't reveal the name due the supplier agreement.
But couldn't deny it. I'm pretty sure this one is nailed on!
@Libero
Great question and one that's been asked a lot today in private messages. We think he means David, Trium's founder, has been having a go at the market maker for taking the price to £10 and holding it there while they stock up. We can be sure who will benefit if news drops now and this rallies again with the market maker fully stocked on £10 shares. Nice play by them.
Will ask Richard to fully explain that though and get the word out. Always interesting that side of what goes on - we often think they're 'all in it together' but it's not the case, they have competing interests too. Think generally market makers annoy everyone.
@troublesome
Care Home study was staggered so a right pain to do. Study one care home, evaluate it, move on to next. At some point you're going to keep pushing out the completion date with lots of small delays from day to day goings on. Also think they're playing with a new toy there. Saliva at least even Mullis mentioned saliva in care homes. Everyone wants care homes sorted with the best tech, but it's a massive decision and commitment. Whatever gets chosen will be what is protecting the most vulnerable this flu season. December to March. That's when hell kicks in judging by the NHS's reports on flu numbers.
@only1jop
Wishful thinking on my part. New device coming but might not even be something suitable for care home environment. If they create this next-gen coated biological component wizardy (because honestly don't even know how to describe it) then why not create it to be backwards compatible with the kit they just installed in NHS hospitals. Reckon either it works in all Q-series units, or it's some device for a different setting..
As with the summer, a major quiet period then bought on a ridiculous two month rally.
The thinking in the groups is that the same is on again - it's all about government negotiations which Novacyt doesn't have control over time-wise.
Gen 3 Product launches - these are definitely coming. No room for debate there. The R&D spend has increased and it's heavily weighted towards near patient / point of care diagnostics. At best for the centralised labs they'll benefit from whatever this new biologically coated tube tech is. It was developed for near patient testing, but it'll benefit labs too - but only if it's as good as the current lab kit. Lateral Flow coming, new machine and whatever Versalab and Promate is. By end of this week I reckon we will see a Microgen launch. Probably get strung up for being wrong! But that's my thing this week.
Overseas contract - this is the whisper that won't die. All about WinterPlex, personally I think it could be Q32 related but WinterPlex is hot.
Care Home contract - this is delayed, expect nothing until late November.
Original DHSC contract news - lasted 6 months, clearly supply during the 6 months has grown to meet demand, but will they announce an extension period? If they will then that will be getting finalised as we speak, because it just ended. No guarantee here though, they could simply let the contract roll on without us knowing.
These are my favs for November. We have bonus catalysts like a Q3 Trading Update but Novacyt doesn't do them, never has - though they would probably have good reason to, ie. lure investment. They also have really good reason to hide results. This is a pandemic. You do not go around screaming about making tons of profit. Vertical M&A - IT-IS was just the start of Graham's shopping spree, and personally I'm throwing my hat in the ring here - I think we see another M&A before Christmas, but could come anytime.
Phase 2 is tipped for Jan 2021 - that 700 machines but new info came this week. Hospitals are just getting 1 unit each. Some need multiples so doctors don't need to walk long distances between flu and covid wards. Keep it all separate. 1,000 total units is not very many now it seems. They did 86 hospitals (or 82? please check) last week, so expect this to just keep moving, with new installations daily now. Next 700 could kick in sooner than expected.
Then there's the damned vac**** job description. Totally incredible, no-one knows what Microgen are doing. Something is happening and it is way over all of our heads. Not even going to speculate, and you'll notice Twitter is very quiet on it too. Too rampy and we're all nervous about mis-interpreting that. The language in that job description is clear though.
Enjoy the calm before it kicks off!
B2HS2L
Loads of possibilities there and guys really focused on US OEM's a lot during summer when we were running on fumes. The problem is PrimerDesign do custom assays, which means you could be searching for hours for an exact match while discounting an OEM that really is theirs. They can play with things like limit of detection or even put out a 2 gene test before we'd launched our own. Ultimately it's a time sink so on that one, I'd just hold out for the full year trading and operational update in Jan. That will have a good breakdown and we can try to unpack something there.
OEMs are a given though - when you have a strong first mover USP and are embedded with NHS, global players will be repackaging all sorts of tests around this kit, much more profitable and faster to market to just use Novacyt's OEMs.
I can put that about the recruitment to him for sure.
As far as we know though, the jobs aren't lasting long on the job boards. 2 were taken down today, one's we'd only spotted being listed a couple of weeks back. 60 hires so far in 2020 (as of September, will be more now) and around maybe 15 to 20 listed recently. Looks like they're filling nicely, but worth asking! No clue on remuneration but at the AGM Novacyt changed resolutions to allow for more creation of shares for staff.
5. Saliva trials are progressing. 2 with Optigene in Salford and Southampton, 2 with Novacyt in London and a care home. Saliva has contamination risk and it's more diluted. I'm unsure whether saliva will definitely get a full national rollout, but the trials are there and Novacyt validated their test for the sample type. They not have 5 sample types you can use with the PrimerDesign test, so if saliva gets a no - maybe mid-nose will be next best option. I think everyone wants a full saliva rollout though, especially Novacyt.
6. Novacyt's 2 gene test is now re-imburseable, but it's late to market. WinterPlex is the big win for the region now, an HAS (French authority) is looking at multiplexes at the moment. Statement was expected two weeks ago - some delay, who know when. French guys say everything there is slow, so just keep an eye out. Guys refresh the French website regularly so if WinterPlex gets go-ahead we will know quite quickly!