Member Info for Taverham

Bloomers, I am currently looking for a property in and around Oxford and the prices here seem to have fallen over the last year. So on average they may have risen and most likely that is caused by the overpopulation driving up prices in the places further away from London and the south east. However becuase Gilts are up around 1% on a 5 year , compared to this time last year mortgage rates will be rising and that will surely limit rises , as will higher energy costs . therefore I am expecting no more than 1% overall in 2025.

The big worry for me is that the labour party are scared of losing the anti nuke votes to the greens and therefore find further ways to stall smrs. I hope i am wrong.

The good news is that the country will be bankrupt before millibands plans come to fruition where the cost is £40k to £50k per household. We can't borrow anymore for sure because 5yr and 10 yr gilts are up over 1% on labour's existing overspending this year and our businesses ironically on account of high energy costs are already uncompetitive so there are no options beyond raising tax which is imv at its limit.

We face a bleak and cold future under this government.

I am not invested here but I watch IG TV on you tube each day from 730 am. The main presenter , Rich McDonald is very keen on VOD and mentions them every day and trades them in different ways. I would recommend pi's here tune in or watch the shows after the event as they will likely find it interesting.

The p/e of the business sold is only around 4 - so not great business imv - lets hope the city like the simple simon strategy.

Johnjo, I understand your frustration but you may be better trying to build the position in small chunks because in my experience nobody ever gets the best low entry or the highest sell price. I have bought at 3.5p [flotation] and 160p and happy with both at the time.

Troajan, why do you think Putin is weak militarily , even the BBC reported yesterday that the war was not going well for Ukraine?

Btw , cheap russian gas shipped via ukraine finishes today and it is getting colder next month and that gives Putin huge leverage over the whole of europe, except Spain!

Johnjo, why is it painful to watch the shares go up - are you short? Also you said 'increasing net debt levels' - where did you get that from? I thought they were cash positive until the last acquisition so i would be interested in that.

Finally, I do not think we will have a bad trading update because the last update set lower expectations - are you expecting even worse than predicted?

But which group of people will have it spoiled by Starmer next year? They have upset the pensioners , waspi women, farmers ,business owners, private schiool users and Oil and gas workers in 2024 - so it must be the turn of others. Sending our money overseas giving away our territories and locking up people for facebook posts is quite upsetting to watch but they must have something else up their sleeves surely? I am thinking that most of the self employed trades people are next - not sure how or why but there is something sinister about the predominance of white vans - how about a requirement for them all to be resprayed brown as white is clearly offensive?

Well there are contradictions in Trump's policies imv. If Musk reduces government spend by around one third, their deficit will falland if the Tarriffs he talks of are implemented there will be further income for their government but on the other hand he is planning to spend billions on building his wall and removing illegals both of which cost money and will be inflationary. His encouragement of european purchase of US weaponery and gas will again stoke their economy so it will be a mix of competing forces but I don't think their debt bubble will burst.

Did I read that SS was rewarded in the new years honours list for services to literature , for his fictional writings on investing in viable projects?

I am sickened by the whole system where following the politicians whims at whatever cost to the UK or individual companies is rewarded with an honour. I would not want to be on the same list as Khan or East both did a very poor job but said the right things imv.

Meanwhile , Wizz air have struck a compensation deal for their NON RR engines which runs until 2026 , indicating sustained problems for our oppostion and therefore more good news for ourselves.

The mob from eastern europe are not as big an issue of those that have come recently. The east eurpoeans worked in construction, drug dealing and pepople trafficking by all accounts but the latest bunch don't seem to have their skill set. From bad to worse imv.

I don't agree that management is weak just because the negotiating party are playing hard ball. In fact it could be read as a sign of strength. What seems to be missing within the negotiations is honesty and by that i mean , the purchasers could propose a roylaty level that derisks the differing nature of the deposits and in good faith we could agree. What they seem to be saying is ' we don't like the latest drilling info , so we want a new deal' but when challenged to verify that have gone all coy.

These things happen and the key issue for us is - who else will buy?

My choices are Zenith energy - if they win their arbitration they could 10X and we will find our mid year at latest - possibly sooner if an early settlement is reached or MSI - great company generating loads of cash but BOD well into their 70s so could get taken over but in any event their strategic review will unlock value through a division sale. DYOR and good luck all.

For FTSE100 JD Sports.

I never thought that Labour would be as stupid both politically , i.e finishing off their own party and economically as they have turned out to be. Just as Boris sunk the Tories , Starmer has sunk Labour. I am just hoping Trump shows what can be done with a new approach.

STP, I think Ursula is the wrong gender for Kier to seal anything with these days - even if she out bid Loard Alli on the clothing front !

@ Banbury, I think the management have a real credibility issue and therefore will want to demonstrate they have a handle on the numbers , which means the latest profit warning figure will be correct within 1 or 2 million imv.

@Bob, Interest rates will not drop 1% in UK because the government has stoked inflation with their public sector pay awards , energy prices etc. IMV the most we can hope for is 0.5% but a lot does depend on what happens when Trump takes over.

I am a LTH here but have never been less optimistic about the sector or indeed the UK!

SV, the sp rise here is news driven therefore not a pump and dump by definition. The court have asked for a time table that precludes 'years' - so mid summer at latest for final outcome. have you bought in?