Member Info for taufour

muldoon - SAV "a much better bet". earache - "Are you serious?" There should be some values of X and Y for which holding X amount of SAV and Y amount of EMH is a better bet than holding X+Y amount of SAV, and is also a better bet than holding X+Y amount of EMH.

One of the CFO objectives is "Increase the percentage of share register held by institutional investors". It's a regrettable necessity that for that to be possible, private investors will need to sell predominantly more than they buy. They could be panicked into selling, or they could be bored into selling, or they could be incentivized to sell. The third alternative would be best. Good that the company has been getting some practice at incentivizational techniques in the recent CB exercise.

Actual spread now is 4.3379 to sell, 4.35 to buy for 5k gbp (double-tested, i.e. dummy sell, dummy buy, dummy sell, dummy buy) advertised spread is 4.30 - 4.50

"On Twitter this morning the company said 5000" Yes but reaching a rate of production of 5k tpa by the end of this year doesn't mean producing 5k this year. What it means is producing at least 5k next year.

The linked-to article following the press conference says 'He estimated that RMB planned to export 3,000 tons of rare earths abroad in 2018, "instead of the 5,000 tons originally announced"'. But the report may be inaccurate, and does not tally with the 2017 Q4 investor presentation, which says "Production guidance for 2017/2018 - 2,250-3,000 tonnes of mineral concentrate - Intention to move to commercial production at target rate of 5,000 tpa run rate by the end of 2018".

"Downstream processing in the country" means "processing up to final products within the Czech Republic" (according to the MoU). What that in turn means is open to interpretation, but many people probably understood it to include battery manufacture, some may even have understood it to include car manufacture (given that Skoda has EV plans). The hope/dream of Czech nationalists was/is that alongside foreign funding for the mine would come foreign funding for a battery gigafactory (for example Tesla... according to wikipedia, "Reported locations said to be under consideration are Czech Republic near Prague, with a nearby 330 kilotonne lithium deposit..." but the dream is fading) Economically the gigafactory would be more important to Czechia than the mine, which would ideally (from the nationalist point of view) simply be a reliable source of cheap (or at least price-controlled) lithium ... that is what I meant by "single customer". EMH gave away far more in the MoU than the Czech government ever did.

I think that what the market is waiting for is an indication of how profitable EMH can be in the new political situation. There are (at least) three ways in which the Czech govt will be able to control quite finely how much profit EMH is able to make: they can control (1) royalties, (2) taxes, and (3) because EMH has generously agreed to follow the policy of downstream processing in the country, there will effectively be only one customer for the lithium, so the government will be able have considerable influence on the price paid for the product. Clearly EMH needs to be able to make a reasonable profit if it is to get funding to build the mine, but the question is, what is reasonable. What might seem reasonable to a foreign investor, might seem like daylight robbery to a Czech national. I think the market is waiting for clarification on this.

Oddly, according to dummy trades I've been putting in, I'm consistently being offered a negative spread. I've tested this several times over the past half hour at both HL and AJBell, and every time the quotes have consistently been 2.398p to buy or 2.4p to sell. For reference, the notified spread throughout the half hour has been 2.25 - 2.50, and according to the usual feeds there have been a handful of actual trades during this period, all at 2.4p (and showing on the feeds as buys). Can anyone cast light? Thanks.

Notified spread is 2.25 - 2.75, my trade at 2.49 is actually a buy (showing as a sell) Why do I bother mentioning this? Well I assume that this is a way for private investors to fight back against MM obscurantism.

Hello. "The problem with this stock is that it is full of day traders and market makers... What we need are consistent buyers of THR stock who are long term holders" Sure, but by keeping the spread wide aren't the market makers doing exactly the right thing in terms of making day trading difficult or even impossible?

Hello. "... the processing plant is theoretically capable of processing up to 42,000 tonnes per annum. That's 7 times the projected rate of 6,000 tonnes per annum." But note (at 4m 10s in the Cape Town video), "There's a shot of our mine; we've got a mining license for 25 years in Burundi, East Africa; that hill, that shot there, is the first of what will be multiple mining areas within our deposit."

3.15 actually

Hi. Half an hour ago I bought 201k shares at 3.07 and it is showing as a sell. Bid/ask was 3.00/3.25, as it had been for several hours and still is now. And there was another trade for 200k a couple of minutes after mine, also at 3.07, so quite likely that also was a buy, even though it also is showing as a sell. I know this kind of thing happens all the time, but reckon it is still probably a good thing to complain about it regularly. Maybe there could be a special forum for people to say whenever this happens to them. The sheer volume of entries into that forum might nudge the MMs into being more transparent in their bid/ask indications. Also, if the actual spread is much tighter than what the spread appears to be if you just look at the bid/ask, then doesn't it mean that the MMs are showing inaccurate information?

("Nibble, nibble - all yesterday...") Nice but shouldn't there be some explanation or analysis alongside your sequence of snapshots? An ETF steadily buying BCN could be due (in part) to them steadily increasing the weighting that they give to BCN in their portfolio, and it could be due (probably more so) to a steady influx of investors' money into the fund which causes them to buy steadily across the board. One could glean some information about their portfolio strategy by tracking changes in the proportion of their fund that is in BCN ... but then again, this proportion also changes when the share price of BCN changes relative to their other holdings, without any conscious decision on their part. So if you are going to go to the trouble of regularly posting these numbers (and it is much appreciated), would you consider going a tiny bit more trouble and analysing them. Or at least include a statement to the effect that these numbers don't necessarily mean what newbies might think they mean.

Obs, "taufour. You are going to kick yourself" ... yes indeed! Thank you. It is fascinating reading, and most encouraging to see how disastrous some short positions have been (for example, Maverick Capital was shorting 1.2% of ARM when ARM was taken over in 2016)

Hello Obs, "the official public list of shorted shares (which includes AIM) can be found from: [link]" Interesting, thanks. "From the history, it appears that no-one has ever ..." It's not clear how to find the history from the page you link to. There is a .XLS file giving daily update. Is the history somewhere else ... maybe a premium service or something?

" all going ahead in Germany " Does this mean one year for a PFS and another year for a DFS, then start construction? Or with Chinese competition on the horizon, is there a way of speeding this kind of thing up?