Member Info for taufour

Archer, last month, in AJBell webinar:

"We had 3.5 million pounds in cash as at last balance date and clearly we will require further funding going forward, but we've got a series of sources we're working to around that, including partnerships, grants from both the EU and in Portugal, and of course the usual range of project financing and equity capital markets financing that might be available as well, so it's a dynamic ongoing task for us."

I think that is fair warning enough but would welcome views of other people.

Thanks. Also worth noting that the webinar of Aug 19th at shares magazine is still playing (email addr reqd to register), about 20 mins of presentation (which feels like it could have been given last year) followed by some not too challenging questions. A good share for people who like a quiet life I think.

Hello. Could any forum member who is also a client of HL please inform HL that the most recent entry in "Company Announcements" dated Aug 25th is an item about Savannah Energy (not Resources). Thanks.

While I'm here (I look in from time to time) ... would any active member like to give an update about current sentiment? Seems a bit quiet.

I wonder if some people here are being a bit rosy-tinted.

With quoted spread at .56 / .58

MMs are offering shares for .5635 but are refusing to bid (except for ridiculously small amounts such that they are obliged to bid, in which case their bid is .5615)

Based on that, it looks as though MMs are already awash with this share and do not want more.

"I think everyone who went out at 0.79 trickling back in on hope of RNS tomorrow"

Hello RoronoaZoro. You are making it sound like a whole bunch of people.

I think that at most 2 people went out at 0.78 or above (for about gbp 3k between them). Contrariwise, approximately 4 people came in at that level (for about gbp 6k between them).

The largest non-trivial trade was for gbp 11k at just under 0.77 and it's not clear if this was a buy or a sell.

"Extended notes to follow, but for now: following the $325m debt package secured for Araguaia, I think HZM should be valued at well over 10p in its current state....

Myles was a Micro Cap Equity Analyst/Micro Cap investment manager."

That is misleading because what has been secured cannot reasonably be called a debt package.

"£250m finance deal for a company valued at £60m??"

The agreement referred to in the recent RNS cannot reasonably be described as a "finance deal".

It is, at best, hopefully a step in that direction.

It is interesting to look at the recent spike in factual terms. It began Wednesday morning 5th Aug when SP broke 0.6p first thing and rapidly broke 0.7p at 11:37.

Main part of the spike was for the rest of Wednesday, with SP consistently above 0.7p.

It first dipped back below 0.7p at 09:32 next morning Thursday. For the rest of Thursday it hoevered around 0.7p, crossing the line up and down several times. Next morning, Friday, SP opened decisively below 0.7p and has drifted down consistently since then.

So we have 4 periods of interest (data from XLON's spiffy new API):

(A) quick ramp up, 0.6p to 0.7p (5th Aug, 08:00 - 11:37) 166 trades, 389k gbp

(B) spike, above 0.7p (5th Aug 11:37 to 6th Aug 09:32) 337 trades, 646k gbp

(C) hovering ... could go either way (6th Aug 09:32 to end of day) 136 trades, 297k gbp

(D) post-spike, below 0.7p and falling (7th Aug to now) 343 trades 561k gbp

Note that Zak Mir's trader tip was on 5th Aug. It seems likely that the substantial portion of the people who got spiked were traders following Zak's tip. (I hope that they were not people following GK's very opaque "tip").

It also seems likely that most of these traders will now be bailing out. To get a feeling for what might actually be happening, it's worth looking again at the volume numbers with time periods attached:

Ramping up, 389k gbp in 4 hours
Spike, 646k gbp in 6 hours
Hovering, 297k gbp in 7 hours
Drifting down, 561k gbp in 3 days, at time of writing (end of Tuesday)

Hi. "I can understand two of them showing as sells as I paid 21.4, but the other was at 21.95 when the ask was 22p, hardly below the mid point between the bid and ask,"

Looking at your three trades in context makes it clear that they are all buys.

But some of the trade listing services do not get the context right and thus can mis-label buys as sells and vice versa.

For example, if trade T is done at time X (when bid was BX and ask was AX), but published later at time Y when bid is BY and ask is AY, some listing services report it as:

time X, trade T, bid BY, ask AY

That explains your 21.95 trade being mislabelled.

A different consideration applies to your other two trades, priced at 21.4

For these, although bid was 21 and ask was 22, the context was two clusters of trades, one cluster around 21.1 (likely sells) and the other cluster around 21.4 or 21.5 (likely buys). Many listing services would have labelled all these trades as sells, because they only do simple arithmetic on the bid and the ask and do not look at the context.

Hello Fred. "I’m still wrestling with lowering my average." I suggest that the concept of "my average" is a pointless and dangerous distraction. If you are considering buying at present prices, fine, but I suggest making the decision solely on the basis of present prospects and without regard to your existing holding. BTW it would be good to hear what Mr. Fred is saying these days.

"Msg contains no information about company status, only Christmas congrats,"

There is no mention of Christmas whatsoever. The message says, in full, "Thank you to our customers and partners for their support this year. We’re looking forward to welcoming the team back in the New Year for a successful 2020."

gk and wwguk: "I think it was you that found this paper re Boulby marl? ... Hi, GK, yes, I found the thesis and read some parts long time ago"

but at least one of you is a *lazy assumer* missing the fact that it is Mrs (or Ms) Jia

Myo "...should read 2 and two 350m MTS access shafts one at Woodsmith and one at Lockwood Beck...."

Lockwood Beck shaft I think only 270m

Thanks PAAA your explanations are always helpful. But this is puzzling:

"However, and this is a key point - IT WILL ONLY APPEAR ON THE BOOK AS ANY OTHER ORDER. There won’t be anything identifying it as a stop-loss."

Suppose, for the sake of illustration, that the normal trading range is 9 to 11.

A stop-loss order might then appear on the book as a sell order at 8.

Well, how could a sell order at 8, when the normal trading range is 9 to 11, be anything other than a stop loss?

"posting the link is easy ... the person to thank is Fred for going to the trouble of typing the whole article out"

If Fred actually typed the whole article out (as opposed to doing copy and paste) then what is truly impressive is that she managed to enter the text "10¼p" from her keyboard.

Hi AimtoDeath "4.98 and 4.99 buys Falling just inside spread mid point."

Yes. One can see quite clearly in the snapshot at

http://www.luku.org/snap/HZM/nw6u2hdr/

that the 4.98 and 4.99 trades, although just below the midpoint, are actually probably buys.

(Snapshot is from a home made app that tries to fight back against the obscurantism of the system by providing easy-to-visualize summaries of recent trading behaviour. In normal conditions the ask and bid lines form an undulating envelope within which trades should snake along in two bands of likely buys and likely sells. Tthe distance between the two bands can give an idea of the actual spread, as opposed to the nominal spread which is the distance between the ask and bid lines.)

Hi Rogue, "We can disregard the UT, but still, those are some impressive buys. When was the last £1M+ single buy for SM? It must have been pre-6 Aug."

Interesting question. There is a list of sxx trades year-to-date from xlon at 35.185.86.155/list/?epic=SXX so on a linux command line one can do

curl -s http://35.185.86.155/list/?epic=SXX | sort -nrk7 | head -n20

to get the top 20 by volume.

2019-05-21 17:05:57 ---------- --:--:-- 15.30 GBX 34636628 5299404.08 xx Off-book XOFF
2019-05-21 09:32:16 ---------- --:--:-- 15.46 GBX 31172726 4819303.44 xx Off-book XLON
2019-05-21 09:32:09 ---------- --:--:-- 15.46 GBX 31172726 4819303.44 xx Off-book XLON
2019-05-28 16:35:24 ---------- --:--:-- 16.20 GBX 26959049 4367365.94 xx Uncrossed Trade XLON
2019-06-21 16:35:04 ---------- --:--:-- 13.47 GBX 25469748 3430775.06 xx Uncrossed Trade XLON
2019-05-21 16:54:39 ---------- --:--:-- 15.45 GBX 23000000 3552810.00 xx Off-book TNCP XOFF
2019-05-21 10:06:20 ---------- --:--:-- 15.46 GBX 15586364 2409651.87 xx Off-book TNCP XOFF
2019-05-21 09:46:24 ---------- --:--:-- 15.46 GBX 15586364 2409651.87 xx Off-book XLON
2019-05-21 10:06:20 ---------- --:--:-- 15.46 GBX 15586362 2409651.57 xx Off-book TNCP XOFF
2019-05-21 09:45:59 ---------- --:--:-- 15.46 GBX 15586362 2409651.57 xx Off-book XLON
2019-08-06 10:03:49 ---------- --:--:-- 10.82 GBX 15000000 1623000.00 xx Off-book PRIC XLON
2019-05-21 14:28:24 ---------- --:--:-- 15.47 GBX 13730000 2124031.00 xx Off-book SINT
2019-05-02 06:31:18 ---------- --:--:-- 0.21 USD 10923132 2348473.38 xx Off-book TNCP XOFF
2019-08-06 09:26:40 ---------- --:--:-- 0.13 USD 10000000 1280000.00 xx Off-book TNCP XOFF
2019-04-30 09:47:37 ---------- --:--:-- 18.40 GBX 10000000 1840000.00 xx Off-book XLON
2019-04-30 09:13:36 ---------- --:--:-- 18.50 GBX 10000000 1850000.00 xx Off-book XLON
2019-09-04 17:08:54 ---------- --:--:-- 10.39 GBX 9715300 1009419.67 xx Off-book TNCP XOFF
2019-05-28 18:45:01 ---------- --:--:-- 16.20 GBX 8859388 1435043.67 xx Off-book TNCP XOFF
2019-05-21 16:54:20 ---------- --:--:-- 15.36 GBX 8800000 1351240.00 xx Off-book TNCP XOFF
2019-05-22 16:35:35 ---------- --:--:-- 15.05 GBX 8200000 1234346.00 xx Off-book XLON

It doesn't say if the trades are long or short, but this afternoon's trade of 9,715,300 shares comes in at very respectable number 17. The two recent larger trades were on 6th August (15m shares and 10m shares ... the latter, curiously, being priced in USD).

It's worth noting that the annotation 'TNCP' indicates transaction not contributing to price.

Hello Sonic "Not really sure how that would work, either financially or from a "green" perspective. The energy loss converting something into electricity to charge the battery, then to upload it back into the grid, only to need to re-charge your own battery again at some point? I'm no scientist but on the surface, that sounds like a flawed business."

If the source of the energy is inexhaustible and free (eg solar) then you can waste any amount of energy and still come out ahead.

" ... and they get buried at the end of use. Just like the Channel tunnel ones did"

I think that's not quite right; the south-going machines were buried (and are still in service, providing an electrical earth) while the north-going machines continued on through and were then dismantled and extracted.

"H and l are showing a trade for 21pence at 1700 Friday"

Hi. Just to add some context, that trade is labelled NPFT which stands for "Non Price Forming Transaction". Whatever that means.