Member Info for taufour

muckshifter's proposal is incredibly risky I think. To build the shafts down to poly without having any financing for the tunnel seems like a surefire way of losing control of the company.

Hi Thornback "who pays the stamp duty?"

Stamp duty is not chargeable on new share issue, see https://www.gov.uk/tax-buy-shares

"When you don’t pay tax
You don’t have to pay tax if you:

are given shares for nothing
subscribe to a new issue of shares in a company
buy shares in an ‘open ended investment company’ (OEIC) from the fund manager
buy units in a unit trust from the fund manager"

There is some wonderful historical data at uk.finance.yahoo.com to be data-mined.

For example, it is interesting to look at the average share price over a year. Here is a linux (bash) script to do that:

#!/bin/bash
echo -n "20${1}: "
j0=$(date -d "20${1}0101 0000" +%s)
j1=$(date -d "20${1}1231 2359" +%s)
curl -s "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SXX.L/history?period1=${j0}&period2=${j1}&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d" | tr ',' '\n' | grep adjclose | tr -cd '\n.0123456789' | awk '{s+=$1;};END{print NR" working days, ave sp "s/NR;}'

(I'll explain how it works if anyone asks). You run this script by giving it a 2-digit year as an argument. Here is the result of running it as far back as records go.

2005: 110 working days, ave sp 6.26591
2006: 252 working days, ave sp 4.67738
2007: 253 working days, ave sp 5.28577
2008: 254 working days, ave sp 2.93986
2009: 253 working days, ave sp 4.96403
2010: 253 working days, ave sp 5.46285
2011: 252 working days, ave sp 13.7103
2012: 251 working days, ave sp 19.8127
2013: 253 working days, ave sp 18.7764
2014: 253 working days, ave sp 11.8583
2015: 253 working days, ave sp 15.0087
2016: 253 working days, ave sp 22.6206
2017: 252 working days, ave sp 24.8372
2018: 253 working days, ave sp 28.5084
2019: 88 working days, ave sp 20.2758

Can we beat last year's average (28.5 p) this year?

So far I have managed to only skim the RNSs ... and the forum for that matter ... but I'm startled enough by what I've discovered so far that I'd like to post an immediate reaction: which is that 3bn of pure debt (loan plus non-convertible bonds) is a rather astonishing achievement. There don't seem to be any posts on the forum saying this yet, so I'll say it now. It is way way better than I was expecting.

Sure, there are other matters to consider. Will keep on reading.

The animation at
https://map.siriusminerals.com/site/assets/files/1065/mhf_port_animation-final_180925.mp4
shows initially one "production line" at Wilton (0 mins 18 secs) with blank space alongside which later on gets filled in with two more production lines (1min 58secs)

So it looks like initially 1 production line, increasing to 3 as the project progresses.

But, arithmetically, how does this jibe with envisaged production rate of 10m tpy initially, increasing to 20m tpy as the project progresses?

48 hrs w/o internet (small island, anchor damaged cable, and no smartphone so no mobile internet either), now can scarcely face reading much of the forum, heck can scarcely face reading the RNSs, but have read enough to gather that something unexplained happened with Myo.

We can't just do nothing. Please can someone with experience of how these forums are administered suggest a strategy.

"being invested in a share doesn't support the company one jot... unless you have participated in a capital raise."

Not so! Buying shares on the market for long term holding definitely supports the company, contributing as it does to the truth of the statement "There is healthy demand for the shares".

Lostinthe, "So where does Scrimshaw's much-publicised comment that the IPA govt-guaranteed debt being "essential" fit into that logic?" There are modern forms of logic which take time into consideration. For example (wiki) "In logic, linear temporal logic or linear-time temporal logic[1][2] (LTL) is a modal temporal logic with modalities referring to time."
In the present case, the IPA guarantee could have been essential then and not now.

Kaper: "Many traders believe that market makers will "signal" moves in advance buy using small amounts of buys or sells as "signals". The "signals" are from one market maker to another.

100 I need shares.
200 I need shares badly, but do not take the stock down.
300 Take (or I am taking) the price down so I can load shares
400 Keep trading it sideways.
500 Gap the stock.

This is a theory put forth by a lot of penny stock and non-penny stock traders."

OK. And here is my theory:

100 If you want a laugh, just look at what the morons are saying on LSE.
200 Yeah that Kapersky fellow takes the biscuit.
300 But could it be true?
400 I need shares.
500 Fancy a coffee?

Now all it needs is a few thousand mentions on facebook and this theory will become official.

ffcmember: "Twenty hours in 24 with 15 guys feeding the TBM laying tracks"

Do not forget the slurry operator. Not sure if this is related but it could be:

"We have a vacancy for an Herrenknecht 4M diameter Slurry Operator to be based in the North East. You should have 7+ years TBM experience and hold a valid CSCS card and Confined Spaces.

There is a requirement to work a shift rotation of days and nights (7/3 days and 7/4 nights).

We require someone to start as soon as possible and will provide a full induction and training."

http://www.josephgallagher.co.uk/about-us/careers/ArticleId/301/tbm-operator-humber-slurry

Hello LL "This is what has bothered me for a little while.......why would a financial institution lend us money at this point?........they can see that we will run out of cash in the very near future so why lend to a going concern when they could pick up the pieces for a fraction in a couple of months..?"

I think it is mainly a matter of reputation and ongoing relationships. It is, or should be, more profitable for financial institutions to behave fairly than not.

GK: "could it have worked out better for holders any other way?"

The way it should work is that the institutions which acquire equity at stage 1 have enough city clout to ensure that existing shareholders fare reasonably when stage 2 comes along.

The problem is that this model becomes stressed if a significant amount of that equity has trickled back into the hands of PIs by the time stage 2 comes along.

ffcmember: "Can I ask re ST 2 if it were a sovereign wealth fund would that not mean dilution ???? ok if we are talking the 4-600 million"

I think that some form of dilution relating to the 4-600 mill extra funding requirement is within most people's expectation.

And the Norway fund would be a good fit for some part of that, as it is

(a) very ethical (SXX hopefully ticks all the boxes)
(b) in 2011 divested from Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan to the tune of 274m usd on account of exploitative involvement in Western Sahara

Now would be a good time for it to re-balance back into potash.

An interesting link for those who think the "global financial institution" might be the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund: their voting history at the 3 most recent AGMs (2016, 2017, 2018)

https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/responsible-investment/our-voting-records/?st=Meeting&q=sirius+minerals

Note that in 2018 they voted against 3 of the proposals (remuneration policy and reappointment of 2 directors)

In 2017 they voted against reappointment of the auditors.

Also interesting, variations in their holding in SXX:

2016 - 21m USD
2017 - 8m USD
2018 - 10m USD

Blututrle: "On the London Stock Exchange, it lists a trade today:
16:28:26 05-Apr-2019 20.00 GBX 5,585,000 1,117,000.00 Off-book
Can anyone make sense of this trade, why it is so big at 1p under the market price and below the day low of 20.34?"

Hi, that trade was cancelled a minute later, if you scroll a bit you find a delayed notification at 16:29 saying

"16:28:26 05-Apr-2019 20.00 GBX 5,585,000 1,117,000.00 Cancelled CANC XLON"

As a side note, the stock exchange free data feed is not all that one might wish for in terms of clarity and easiness to work with. For example with amended trades (flag 'AMND') it is not clear which trade is being amended.

Just would like to mention, in connection with ICL/Boulby, that when an innovative/disruptive product comes along, it is highly desirable, for many reasons, and especially from the point of view of the business community as a whole, that there be more than one supplier of it.

Being a monopoly supplier of a new product is not really a good idea in the long run.

Myo: "any thoughts...?"

Yes. The syntax is fascinatingly un-English. But there is a possible explanation. I'm guessing the first draft said "ICL is constantly monitoring the competitive environment and will continue to seek ways to stick with its strategy" and some pen-pusher decided to change 'stickì to 'adhere'.

Kapersky: '1 trade at 12:06. Must be an RNS on the way. Market Maker signal'

Dat is nuffink.

There is a list of sxx trades year-to-date (from xlon) at 35.185.86.155/list/?epic=SXX so on a linux command line you can do

curl -s http://35.185.86.155/list/?epic=SXX | grep 'X 1 '

and get a list of all the volume-1 trades. There are 195 so far this year.

Curiously, note that on March 1st at 12:02:27 there was an **uncrossing** trade with volume 1, how weird is that.

hope4green: 'What's the use in looking at trades when you really don't know what's a sell or buy'

Patterns of info build up over time.

Further to previous note (homebrew app at http://luku.org/tau given sporadic ASBOs on grounds of excessive use of shared resources) this kind of app really needs its own virtual machine.

So now it has one, thanks to Google which (in competition with Amazon web services) has a remarkably generous offer in its 'always free' tier.

What will now happen if it is subjected to excessive load remains to be seen. A virtual machine is still in many ways sharing resources (for example the network), but at least as regards raw computing it has a fixed amount of power that it can use up without worrying about impacting other users.

Now here is something whimsical. Have you ever wondered if the market takes tea breaks? At http://luku.org/snap/SXX/hcmk4gu6/ trades are plotted according to the time of day at which they occur. A regular tea break (or lunch break) would show up as a dip. The diagram also shows how the spread varies through the day. In the case of SXX we can see that the spread slightly narrows as the afternoon progresses, leading to a final burst of A-trades taking advantage of the minimal spread at the end of the day.