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Well, it is very surprising indeed. I am not a fan but he has done quite a bit more than his predecessors in my books.
It is difficult to know why this is ....
He has done things but if we are frank, there are still no tangible results and we are spending tens (if not hundreds) of millions in investment. Maybe the Chevron deal did not have that much support with the other shareholders? Who knows?
Good you see the good sides of Genel. There are a few.
My topping up comment was not sarcastic by the way.
Personnally, I put the genel dividend elsewhere but there is a good case for reinvesting.
I am not sure what the end of the override will do to the share price, we will see.
As to the special dividend, I would prefer the company to keep the cash as a war chest to use to buy somewhere else or finance a ramp up in production if needed. The dividend as it is is very generous already.
As usual, the price goes down before the market is informed. Lol.
At least you cannot say they are not consistent. The clock is ticking and as JL points out still no extra oil to be seen.
Probably another year or so to wait.
GLA
Well, there is not much to say really ...
Everything has been said before ...
Same old Genel until something meaningful happens in terms if production or geographical diversification.
Apart from that .... cash génération, krg, payments drilling, write-downs ....
With Brent over 110USD, I wonder how much free cash Genel is generating. It must be significant. Whilst, I strongly support Ukraine, unfortunately, I doubt it will be sorted any time soon. In addition to that, once a solution has been found, it won't necessarily mean that the energy concerns are fixed.
The full year results will be interesting to listen to.
Has anybody got any ideas regarding cash flows, dividends etc ....?
Yes it was meant to go via Turkey but my view us that only the Russian had the means to build the infrastructure to get the gas to market ... now that they have gone "full tonto" , I guess it is not likely Gazprom will be allowed to invest there ...
Who could then, I am not sure ....
As to price of oil, obviously it helps but as you have seen recently it has not really changed yhe share price.
Genel is not a main stream investment proposition and this is why it does not move ... even with the cash building up.
Only a meaningful increase of oil production can push up the price .... KRG hiatus is likely to remain a permanent feature if the company receivables.
I was wondering if Ukraine might not rejig the cards regarding the KRG plans for Bina Bawi. Whilst I always thought only the Russian could develop it properly ... now it dies not look very likely. On the other hand, there might be more candidates to develop it ... is it going to be good ir bad for Genel? I am not sure ....
Any ideas?
I think it is about fair value based on what the share price has been over the last few years. I still think the share will take off sooner or later when we get a proper piece of good news ... i.e something that add genuine value to the revenue stream or the actual value of the company assets. This could be a significant production increase (or the proven prospect of it) at Sarta and QD. It could be Somaliland (next year at the earliest probably later). Or last but not least a settlement of the KRG dispute over Miran and BB, even a fairly modest fraction of what was spent would be a major booster (my guess ... is about 100p).
It is still a very risky bet though as a lot of things can go wrong in the meantime (Brent, KRG, dusters, political unrest, dividend,etc ...).
At least something is happening and we get a fairly handsome dividend for waiting.
GLA and credit to bunks for still being here ... and Jim800 and a few others ..
I agree to some extent but let's not forget that Genel is not a company for the main stream investor. There are very few trades going through ... on a good day which makes ut very easy to manipulate.
Developing assets will be key. I must say, I am VERY happy that something is happening in Somaliland. I humbly admit that I did not see this one coming.
QD and Sarta look promising but it is not a foregone conclusion. All in all, I think Bill did a good job so far.
We will see what happens as as we all know, the future for Genel is not entirely linked to how efficient the management is. For my money, I think this is the best team we have had ever.
I happy also with the dividend that keeps coming (fingers crossed)
GLA.
OK. At least in the meantime we do not have to plough millions into it.
I think a deal with a third party might be difficult, as the amount if cash we put into the venture is vast. The kind of deal we would get would be a bit of cash and a percentage if the production going forward... not very enticing.
The sooner we put BB behind us the better but as you pointed out it might be a while.
Why would he go? Unless he has a better job offer somewhere (which is what might have happened for the CFO).
It is the first time I actually see things happening at Genel, and I have been a shareholder for a long time .
We have at last something happening in Somaliland. New fields are being developed (QD and Sarta), and importantly we might finally get something back for Miran and BB rather than submitting plans to the KRG for them to reject and throwing millions at it every year.
It is not a forgone conclusion but it is definitely moving in the right direction.
GLA.
It is possible but I don't think they can play that sort of game. Negotiating in that part of the world require juggling many balls but you arm wrestle only if you are the strongest.
There are too many parties involved on both sides to do this ( DNO, the Turkish shareholders in Genel, Chevron, etc ...). That is why they waited so long to go to arbitration, and they accept the never ending payment shenanigans ...
Well it is only my guess ...