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Hi Lemming99,
Interesting, however the oil analysts tend to be bullish ... I am not so sure it is going to be that simple but who knows.
At this price level, I cannot see what is going to prevent a glut in the market again. Maybe, I am too candid ...
Just sold a lot at 186.72p.
Fairly happy with it.
How do you guys read the strenght of oil at the moment? Is it the old under-inverstment for years etc .... or the market expect the world economies to go out all guns blazing in the next few months ... or a mixture of both?
Personnally, I see the economic diffculties hitting the market in the months that will follow the withdrawl of all the various grants .... We will see.
On Genel front, we probably should see some news on the new wells soon .....
I have been thinking this (and saying) for a long time. The gas will be developped by the russian. Personally, if this is what needs to be done then let's do it sooner rather than later. A few hundred millions would be welcome to develop/buy other assets. There is obviously something that does not add up with this field for Genel.
If we are brutally honest, I am not sure Genel has the know-how to develop this field anyway.
I would be happy if they make a success of Sarta and QD.
What you say about payments is sadly central to Genel difficulties AND the fact that despite talking a good talk they have not been able to increase production substantially. We get management team after management team and they always say the same stuff but don t deliver .... it is not all bad but not so good either ... in a fairly dangerous environment.
Yes I will keep an eye opened. I would be happy with 150ish. I kind of shadow a bit what you do. We must have an update on the second well at QD soon, no? You said that 140 was on the cards about 10 days ago ... well, it doesn't sound so remote now. The multiple of oil price is quite low but it probably reflects the hiatus on payment. As soon as we know a bit more and we start seeing more cash coming in every month, then we probably will see the price strengthen.
The key in the next few months will be to see if they manage to increase the production by a reasonable amount. At Tawke/Pesh, it is not a given that they will manage to maintain production. TT is quite bad really. We need a bit of luck at QD and Sarta ....
Meanwhile, if the price yoyos between 1.40 and 1.80 ... let's do a bit a trading ....
The drop on production is minimal and was expected, really.
I found the level of answers to the questions at the end of the presentation quite poor. One of the first questions about the allocation of capex per project, you would expect a clear answer. There you could sense some unease and in the end no answer ... for 150 millions, I would have thought one could get a reasonably clear answer ...
Overall, the update is quite good ... a lot of drilling activity in the new fields. Tawke is looking a bit hard work to maintain production. Pesh is solid. TT .... well it s Taqtaq, not that exciting but still there ....
I am a bit surprised by the BSD yesterday and the Big Soufflé Day today , let's see how it settles later today.
GLA.
It more or less what I was expecting based on what the communicated initially. This is why I think we will only know if it is a game changer in the next 24 months or so.
They had a well that had been flowing in the past and (I think, not sure) another one that was a dead cert. The flow rate was from memory similar to what has been achieved (5k ish). In as much as I would like it to rocket, it is unlikely ... me think. They need to find a lot more oil to change the company profile ....
It is not a glass half full or half empty debate .... the glass contain 50% of its maximum.
I agree, investors tend to look on the rosy side of things and are therefore disappointed.
It will be interesting to find out how they spent this year fir first oil (if we get the details), what else is happening elsewhere (not too hopeful there ... morrocco, somaliland).
Only 17 days to father Xmas!!!!
Yes I remember ... it seems like decades ago.
As for the Brent being above 50 ... I am afraid the mechanism must something like average Brent being above 50 for 30 days or something similar ... unfortunately we might have to wait a day or two for that ....
I did find the announcement a bit vague. There are no bopd indications, therefore it is difficult to price the news. Any further communication is probably going to be in the new year, so we will not know at best for another 2 months.
I am not surprised the reaction is mixed.
So far the track record of Genel as an operator has been mixed. We piggy back DNO achievements and we still have to prove we can develop and manage a field successful on our own.
I am pleased that this the beginning of a diversification of cash flows but we are again talking about another 12 months of waiting (probably, I hope less) before we get any hard numbers.
I wonder why the market makers don t move the price anymore. Any idea why this might be?
It shows the complete lack of interest from PI.
We are due an update between now and year end on the well in the Chevron licence (well ... ours). Let hope it is a meaningful amount ....
Sorry to disturb you guys I go back into my box.
GLA
I am surprised at how quiet it is. Usually the MM are a lot active. There is little to no interest from PIs but this is not new.
Any ideas why the MM don't yoyo the share price as usual? I am also pleasantly surprised at how high the current level is ....
Well, if they splash the cash on further acquisitions in KRI, that might be a signal for me to sell out. The cash we have at present, is a safety cushion to develop current assets (mainly KRI, Somaliland and Morrocco until proven otherwise are just distractions) and weather the intermittent payment disruptions.
I would not like to see 200 or 300 millions disappear on further acquisitions. If it happens, then we will have to judge it, then, on its merits but I am not keen. We will see!
Buying in KRI would be crazy. We are lucky to be in a fairly good situation given the significant hurdles present in the region. We have recently acquired more blocks in Kurdistan that are still to produce oil. Using the cash pile should be kept for either developing our existing assets or diversify away from Kurdistan.
The current global turmoil is not going away tomorrow. Refinancing was the right thing to do as it gives us peace of mind. So far, we can not fault the management. OK no fireworks but steady probably shrewd decisions ... just what we need I think.
The interest is high because it is a very risky company. I think it is still a good move as it reduces (ok only a little) the interest we pay every year and importantly it gives the company financial security for another 5 years.
The people who buy those bonds are the same that bought previously. They help the company when it was not so easy to get finance given the business backdrop we operated in.
So it is a very positive move and done with the right timing ... I.e we dont get to the stage where we only have a year left and nobody knows whether we will be able to get finance, disrupt investment plans, etc ....