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One of the possible explanation (on top of the obvious problem of not getting paid) is that Tawke production has started declining about 2 years ago. The payment issue has been a bit if a smoke screen for it but I would not be surprised if one if the main factor is this.
It would explain why DNO is getting hammered.
This reinforces the importance of getting success with the new fields.
At the moment, tawke is still producing a very substantial amount. If this was to decline rapidly (fir whatever reason??) Then the incentive if the KRG to pay us back would be fairly small.
In contrast, Saikan us producing a lower grade if oil but there is plenty if it and growing. This is how I read it.
Genel has been about project and promises fir years but they have delivered very little, if anything. As a consequence it remains (always has been) a bit of a roll of dice fir a new investor .... no new investors, production under pressure, payment problems = no support for the share price.
As always it could change overnight ... but so far it hasn't.
I am still hopeful it might turn around but I am not holding my breath.
Have a good weekend!
Enjoy the sunshine and don't read about shares!
ATB all.
Yes this is making capex strategy very difficult. On the one hand they really need to increase the production but not if you are not getting paid for it ....
Personally, I am convinced they should sell the gas to the Russian but ... either it is not an option for the board (I suspect a lot of big shareholders would be against it) or nobody is interested ... given the payment track record of the KRG it might well be the latter ...
Well for what it is worth I bought back today ... I am now fully loaded with Genel shares ... the most I have ever held actually. The difference in share price is definitely making up for the dividend not collected.
Going forward ... I don't know what to think ... the KRG is really making this difficult to judge. If we are realistic, it does not look likely that Genel will be allowed to be "really" successful in Kurdistan but it still remains a cash building machine even with the current hiatus ....
Managing the investment allocations will be crucial and diversifying should still be a priority.
All the best to all involved ...
Interesting to see Bill Higgs did not get 60% of votes for his reelection. I am not sure what to make of it. This means that there is still tension in the background as to what to do and who decides how to play our hand.
Interesting. I am still looking at buying a few shares before the dividend. It would be quite disappointing to see it go down as far as 145 but since I follow your "predictions" they are rarely wrong.
I frankly did not think we would see sub-160 so soon.
This is why I was a bit worried about the "maintain production above 100k bopd" rethoric in the annual report. The latest figures are a bit reassuring, however I guess they rarely put figures in their reports out of fantasy.
The clock is ticking as well on the overpayments agreement. Is it about 2 years left? They need to make a success of the new fields ... in a big way.
I still question the expenditure in the fields that have brought nothing for years ... namely Somaliland and Morrocco.
I read the statement quickly so I might have missed a few things. The positive is that BB is still on the cards which is good.
The slight worry for me (as I mentioned previously) is Tawke. Production last year was in the 120k bopd from memory. It is 110 this past year (understandable given the headwinds this year), but expectations are .... we expect to be above 100k bopd this coming year. It does not sound very positive to me.
I have to read again what they expect the production to be this year but it did not sound very bullish. It sounds like we kind of stand still in terms of production with new wells hardly compensating for decline elsewhere.
Did I read this wrong?
As you said no fireworks, if oil price remains vaguely around 60 for the year then we will resume a very profitable production and get a chance to increase it.
I agree. I just hope they wont write down the value on BB the day before the AGM as they often did in the past (even if it might make sense ... or not??).
If there is no surprise 200p is definitely around the corner.
Tawke decline to be closely watched maybe ...
I hope all goes well ... I don t want to sound negative which I am not .... been hurt before and all that ..... lol!
Sorry Boyo,
It got lost in translation from French to English ... I meant in sight. "Ligne de mire" is in French the ligne between your eye and the object you shoot at . I checked what it meant in english .... completely different.
Maybe Genel is having a little rest before the next burst forward ...
Boyo,
That 190 resistance is in the mire now....
With the share sitting where it is ... it is looking good.
On a Friday club kind of note, where do you guys see the guidance on production for the year coming? How much more can we realistically expect from Sarta? Is BB shelved fir the foreseeable future? Will Tawke/pesh keep producing around the same levels? Taqtaq? A lot of unknowns. The AGM might give us a few clues. Hopefully we will avoid any write-downs ... but this is a possibility on BB I think.
Any ideas follow board members?
Hydro,
I agree with you and I still hold a lot of shares in Genel. No, I sold based my little trading that I started a few months back. 185 looked like the top of the wave to me. It is has been quite disconnected from the Boyo factor lately, but you are right this could change now ... hence me saying I got my timing wrong. Overall, I am very happy. This is the first time I feel Genel give some genuine good news.
Even Hawkey should come back.
We are adding roughly 5k production with Sarta this year with more to come ... fantastic! Rather this than ****ty plans in Morocco (we should have ditched this long time ago) .... somaliland?? Not sure ... a lot of money spent for something very hypothetical....
Good luck all.