Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Possible but this would be surprising. I think the Krg does not have a lot going for them at the moment. It might well happen, but it is down to Baghdad, isn't it now? I am not sure what is the state if relationship between Ankara and Baghdad. The fact that some major shareholders are increasing their stake would mean the Genel has a future (which was not a dead certainty only a few weeks back).
The big question is how long it will take for the production to resume AND what are the plans for the company.
Exactly my thoughts but it might be a bit more complex than that because if they were exactly on the same page then they would control all the votes ... which us not quite the case I think.
From memory, I think you have to make an offer the shareholders when you have above 30 or 31% ... you need to check. But really if they work together, then there us no point pushing the share price down.
Good potential for being shafted though ... we will see.
My only concern is that they might want to take control of the company on the cheap .... therefore building their stake. For a large corporation, Genel is very cheap to buy .... but obviously still very risky.
We all operate bind on here, compared to any large investor.
We will see.... but please (new investors especially) bear in mind this is a very risky company (with a nice dividend ... which might last ...or not).
GLA.
Buying anything in Kurdistan at the moment would be crazy. We don't know yet what will happen with our existing operations.
Also moving away from Iraq should be at the top of our priorities.
The rethoric has changed a bit at the company but we still are a one trick pony. We had Morrocco and Somaliland for about 10 years and nothing has happened yet. Lots of talk,"transformational ... etc" but nothing in practice. It looks like something might happen now but I prefer to keep my knickers on.
All the drilling that has been done by Genel has always failed. I am quite an optimistic person but we have to carful not to put on the rose tinted glasses ... still a very risky investment with significant potential downside.
DYOR and good luck all ...
The big unknow really is what sort of relationship do we have with Bagdad. Having a turkish Shareholder is "probably" a good thing as they would have some ongoing relationship already. I am not sure this is the case with the western (or maybe nothing meaningful) part of our sharholding. Also the fact that our main ressource is operated by a much bigger fish is positive as well. Not a very comfortable time nonetheless. I am really surprised at how yhe shareprice is holding.
I am surprised nobody mentioned the fairly generous increase in dividend.
Otherwise, same old Genel .... original Somaliland studying was 2023 ...now it is 12 to 18 months which normally means 24 months ... "plus ça change ..."
Usually they say what the proposed final dividend will be. I wonder if they will increase it again .... I know inflation is up but as it is, it is a very big return on capital.
I think we might possibly get some bad news for Sarta. Elsewhere, I guess it will be roughly the same ... Tawke doing the heavy lifting, Taqtaq with the same small flow and small at Sarta ... any other news (morrocco or Somaliland would be a surprise). Who knows?
There is not much to take over really, unless you are convinced Somaliland is going to be a success. You only have Tawke where we have no control really. Taqtaq which is in managed terminal decline. Sarta which so far is very small.
The only option still is to buy a producing asset away from KRI ... not a prospective buy but a producing one. If Tawke goes tots up for whatever reason then there is no more revenue stream.
I can't remember who said that NAV was at 6GBP ... there are a few caveats.
On the plus side, the inability (so far, one has to be optimistic to stay invested) of Genel to develop anything at all is priced in already. I don't think this will affect materially the share price. I hope I am right.
Indeed. If one is looking for consistency ... there you have it. Another 100+ millions down the drain.
Basically Genel gas always tried to win big (style implemented by Flash Hayward) but they have lost every single time ....
Genel put forward many development plans that were always rejected bh the KRG. The bottom line is that genel did not have the financial clout to develop the field outright and needed a partner.
When the PSC was taken on, Hayward was chairman and I suspect he had contacts that his successor did not have (re: finances etc).
It is quite a complex situation. The shareholding is split between people who have different views and interests. Relationship with KRG is difficult as well because of conflicting interest and alliances ... KRG/tribal allegiances/Irak got....
I have been here for many years and the bottom line has always been "jam tomorrow" from the company, with no tangible results in terms if developing new fields. Somaliland has been ours for many years, so is Morrocco. Taq Taq went from a huge field to a small trickle almost overnight ... Basically, I don't want to discourage anybody (I am still invested after all) but Genel is a very risky investment which so far has only surprised to the downside. If it was not for DNO operating Tawke, we might very well have folded.
GLA.
Not sure it would be better settled out of court. Basically, out of court the Krg does more or less what pleases them. It would be better to get a firm judgement in our favour (if we can !) And then work out a settlement with Krg.
In terms of numbers, it is probably pretty scary ... my guess is probably in the billion range rather than 100's of millions ; initial cost of PC + many millions in various studies + lost revenue ....
However, I am not so sure that our claim is watertight. This was a gas field and being realistic we have never been in a credible position to develop it. It was too big for Genel alone. Genel wanted to exploit the sweet oil first to part finance the gas and we needed a partner to jump on board anyway .... so all in all I am not 100% sure the ruling is that clear cut.
So maybe an out of court is preferable ... if our case is weak. Unfortunately the communication from the company on this has always been very shady ... so it is impossible to know what is the best option.
Maybe you don't get the negativity because you have only been invested here fairly recently.
Genel has been "jam tomorrow company for at least 5-6 years ... I would say 8 years. If you take Morrocco ... they say oil has been located there since 2014 ... yet we are still making plans about .... Best case scenario will 10 years to extract oil from allegedly a proven resource. Somaliland now we are talking about early 2024 for drilling .... I read first oil at best in 2025, if it happens. As JC123 pointed, if it wasn't for DNO, we would be in a very bad place I think. Having said that, I am still invested so I still think there is an upside but I am not a dan of the company. It has been very badly run in the past and is still probably badly run. All our top executives are actually second fiddles that have been promoted and I guess the reason for that is that top talent now do not want to work for Genel as the shareholding is dysfunctional. The same goes for investors, 100 transactions a day for that type of company shows that there is not interest from the general public. The veiled positive for me in this RNS is they have stopped using "progressive dividend" to qualify the return to shareholders. With revenues about to drop a lot, it would be crazy to keep increasing the dividend ... Time will tell they might still do.
GLA
Glass Half Empty Tartine.