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Not mentioned very often ... Baghdad does not recognise the current PSCs which probably means a big potential for being shafted .... they have disputed the legality of those agreements for many years.
I agree 100% with you. This is quite poor.
The Somaliland licence only has 2 more years to run ... now that everything seems ready to go ... but somehow we have 0 timescales.
No exports for the foreseeable future.
Local sales at a huge discount.
Morrocco has been without any meaningful news for years.
No news payments ... who will pay us in the future.
I am actually surprised the SP did not go down more.
GLA.
Thank you. That was a fist postponement as it was first end of 23 drill time ( from memory). So we are already coming to the tail end of the 18 months period. If drilling is started in the last quarter of the year, I will be happy.
I don't forget. It is a big plus given Genel record of progressing things on their own in general. However, this is just a press article with very vague (middle if 2024) indications if timings.
What Genel told the investor has been pushed back first to beginning of 2024 and now we don't know. As far as we have been told drilling has not started and there is no indication when it will. Only told civil work has been completed and they are "evaluating" the next stage. For me, in Genel speak it means not much is happening.
Hopefully, I am wrong ... I will be one day. Lol.
As far as I know they have not started drilling. The problem with their communication is that they always postpone what they said they would do.
Finding oil should be fairly straight forward if we are to believe what was said before. It should be large and close to the surface. Let's see if they can do differently than before I.e. funding oil rather than dust.
I still think it will be tough to make it commercially viable (because or operational/political/safety problems) but I would you be proven wrong.
I wonder what is happening with Somaliland. Initially, drilling was forecast for end of 2023. Then it was only preparation work which Haas been completed if I remember right. Normally drilling should be fairly straightforward and oil should be found pretty close to the surface ....
Any thoughts?
Agreed. This is why I was quite happy to see Taiwan jump on-board in Somaliland. We have been very poor at operating fields .... TaqTaq .... from giant field to a trickle. This will remain a mystery to me. How can you get an appraisal so wrong???
It only means that there is no agreement. Turkey is probably also preventing the reopening as it owes quite a lot to Irak for the breaching the contracts (1 billion or so, I seem to remember). I doubt very much Turkey is willing to pay Irak and so the pipeline remains closed. IOC are just passengers ... they have next to no leverage ....
Hopefully I am wrong and the update this week will be good ... somaliland maybe?
I agree with you Lovelosses. Contrary to the current trend here, I think it is a very risky time for Genel.1. Re: the court case, it is against KRG who is not really solvent. I am not convinced that if Genel win the case, The Irak gvt will pick up the bill. 2. The contract we had with KRG might not be necessarily be honoured by Irak, Genel has very little leverage (lucky that DNO us part of the trip). 3. Somaliland might happen one day but it is a very difficult area to operate in ... plus it is being pushed back all the time. On the plus side we have the Tawainese state on board. 4. Morrocco has always been a waste of time.
Glad we are sitting on a fairly substantial pile of cash but the reality is we have a very fragile and reduced income stream, a fairly poor relationship with the region where money is generated.
Good morning,
I am looking at putting a bit of money into this share. Could you briefly tell me what made the SP go from 95 p to where it is now in the last few months. It seems a bit drop for such a large company. The fundamentals look good at this price level.
I will research but any simple info will save me a bit of time.
Thank you.
Hi Jim800,
Which bit you do not agree with? They had the opportunity to diversify for years (not just the last 12 months), they were unable to do anything.
Now that there is nothing going for the company, preserving cash is paramount. Most companies go bust because of lack of cash .. not lack of opportunities. spending money now would be unwise I think., then the company would belong to the bond holders.
Outlook very poor, dividend suspended ... I think I will sell (I have been a holder for years, longer than most). I will take a little while to see where I can put the funds but the next 12 months can be brutal.
If i sell best of luck to all.
There is not much they can do now, in fairness. The pipeline will eventually be resolved but it might take months or even a year ... who knows. When this is foxed, unfortunately, we are not out if the woods as we do not know what sort of payment arrangement (if any at all) we will have with Baghdad.
The only vaguely positive is Somaliland and this is probably 2 years away before we see any cash from it (if it happens).
It is good that Taiwan is in with us on this. This might give a bit of impetus to the operations.
Preserving cash is the priority I think, until we get production going again. This can be reviewed if nothing happens in say ... 6 months time.
In the current environment not much is expected from the arbitration ...
GLA .....
There is not much they can tbh. They probably announce the dividend is suspended as there is no foreseeable income.
It is just the fears we had for years that are crystallising.
I can see the share being around 50 p in the coming months (roughly cash value). The only possible up would be news (Good ones) in Somaliland .... but according to what was said before it won't be before next year, and if it is good, monetization wo t be that easy I think.
Turkey us playing hard ball, Baghdad is probably fairly happy to weaken Kurdistan etc ...
Not a very rosy picture ..
My guess is nothing will happen. Bagdad will probably say, if you want to keep exploiting your licences, drop the case. The best case scenario is that we get back the BB licence with an extension. It all depends on hhf relationship we have with Baghdad ... and this I have no idea.
Since the contract have been declared illégal, I would be surprised if anything happen. If we get any money in compensation it would be a big bonus.
Do you guys know what is the stance with the dividend going forward? Has it been mentionned since we do not have any revenue at the minute?