Member Info for TakingMyTime

"Which part of this do people not understand?"

Which part of "may" do you not understand? Why are you posting with a heading that says it is here to stay when the article says it may be here to stay?

Which part of "The WHO has done a fabulous job of proving it is not infallible" do you not understand?

Which part of "People adjust" do you not understand? We have flu every year, never eradicated, the common cold, measles, and a whole host of infections diseases which have never been eradicated. Some of them are deadly or become deadly for people with underlying conditions. Amazingly, those diseases don't stop people from flying, don't stop people from going to work, to restaurants, to pubs, to churches. Eventually the world shrugs and says, "Going to live my life."

If you think that won't happen before IAG goes bust, you should short it. If you think that either we'll get sufficient cures and treatments, or that the world will finally just decide to live with it and get on with life, then it makes sense to buy IAG.

But don't act as if people who don't see it your way are idiots who can't understand. Chances are, we're right and you're wrong. But go for it and put your money on shorts if that's what you really believe, and maybe you'll be right and get rich while we lose a few quid. I won't wish you good luck on your short but will wish you good luck on the rest of your life.

@Paddy
Thanks, I listened to it this morning.

Did anyone listen to the final three questions that he likes to ask all his interviews? I almost clicked of at that, but decided to let it run. The third question is, if the markets were going to be closed for five years and you could only own one share, which would it be? The answer without hesitation or caveat was Newcrest.

Honestly, anything over 5 moz would be great, 10 would be (must pause this comment while GH looks for a new superlative)...

....

(I got nothing)

According to the Telegraph, Canaccord Genuity includes PSN among the 15 most likely to restore their dividend. Two of their 15 have already announced they are reinstating dividends, Rotork and Spectris. (I also hold ROR, FWIW. It's div is not large but still nice to have.)

The article also cited Richard Hunter of Interactive Investor as tipping PSN to pay a dividend early next year.

Gold explorers are "gamblers' shares". Many people who buy them are looking to get in cheap and make a big killing. Some of those people are dropping out of GGP and looking for the next big thing. New gamblers are looking for the next GGP because the chances of a ten bagger now are remote. Those people are taking their money to our Paterson neighbours hoping to hit the next Hav.

We're somewhat transitioning right now into more like a mining share, rather than an explorer share, because we now actually have a big asset. It's a different kind of investor that will buy GGP now, people like me. But most of that type of investor are still thinking, 'Explorer.'

Basically, the 'gamblers' are starting to move on to bigger gambles and the 'investors' are left. But new investors haven't caught on yet, that we aren't just an explorer, we're an explorer with a huge find, so big that we might even be forced to become a miner to get proper value out of it. That will draw a different kind of investor but few have noticed it yet.

"It ain't going nowhere till gold comes out the ground or buyout."

This could have been said 6 months ago and is likely to be as wrong now as it would have been then.

@Bovey
If he's a subtle deramper, he's brighter than the usual suspects around here, LOL.

@Trev, I use LOL, FWIW. :)

To your question. Will the RI cause a fall in SP? 1) It probably already has. 2) The RI may not even happen, there is nothing guaranteed about it. 3) Depends somewhat on the terms of the RI. It adds shares but also adds cash in the company's coffers, which should increase the value of the company. Will the increased cash / value be enough to counterbalance the increased shares? Not likely, but maybe not far off.

RIs are at discounts so existing shareholders will take them up. If the discount is significant, it drives the SP lower. If it isn't significant, there's a risk not all will take them up. So almost always it drives the SP lower somewhat. In this case, though, it maybe mostly priced in. And other news may drive us much higher (or lower, to be fair) first.

OK, went back and looked, he didn't say new to investing, just new to IAG. I think my point stands, when I first start looking at a company there's a lot I don't know, too.

Thing is, even if he was a long termer here, I'm not sure what is gained by a personal slam like that. This isn't a war zone where we look to win points and squash the enemy. Messie wants to make it into that and some people get drawn into his game, but that's not what this is for. It's for sharing info / insights on a share with other people interested in investing in it.

It's a Mideast city, could lead to instability. Instability in that region affects oil.

@Bovey, he said just a couple days ago he's a new investor and is learning. You bash someone like that, it's you that doesn't look very bright.

"if the plumbing that Alastair talks about does continue on then there must be a "good" chance that there will be other hits in the area. "

Thanks, Paddy.

@nlondon "..?I thought it was only to protect us assets from american vultures while they try to finalise the rescue package and just a legal move right now?"

Correct. This is not like going into administration in the UK. They are not going out of business. Other than some effect on sentiment, it is not likely to have any real impact on IAG at all.

It DOES mean they have "gone bankrupt" but the US has several different kinds of bankruptcy, and it doesn't mean they've gone out of business.

@Paddy "Imagine if Artemis hit at Kzinti which straddles our tenement over 2km to the north of Havieron - oh my"

Just to be clear, you're suggesting that if he's right and it is the same system, that the sulfide runs all the way to the border of the tenement (and beyond). Which would mean that your nice little calculation today and everyone else's fag packets have been the biggest waste of time ever. Is that right?

And that since you also bought into Artemis (if I remember correctly), Richard Branson is going to be coming to you next time he needs a bailout for his airline, LOL. Does that about cover it?

@Hopefully, Paddy
That was my take, too. We have the cash for a lot of holes, especially once NCM pays for our 5% of Hav. (No one knows how long it will be before we begin to really know how big Hav is, after all).

If we get a major resource under so much less cover than at Hav... Even if it is all Cu and no gold at all....

In the discussion that RA started yesterday I suggested one scenario where we make Scal look like a pincushion. Not everyone thought that was possible, but at $20K AUD...

"As for the rest...haven't met you so I couldn't say!:-)"

One of the nicest things anyone's said to me all day. :)

As to the research, I expect that to be fading away soon, work is about to get real. I think GGP will manage to somehow go forward without my contributions, LOL. Will check in from time to time, of course, but maybe mostly on weekends. Hate these spells but they pay the bills.

Historically gold in the ground hasn't often gone for that price. But gold in the ground also doesn't often have the Telfer mill next door, and has never been sold when the market for gold is over $2K. So I am pretty sure you are in the ballpark.

I think we'll get much better value for it holding it until it comes out of the ground. Like maybe $1500 / oz instead of $500. But you have to wait for that, a long time for some of it. And besides feeding some LTHs a nice dividend, we also have some holes we'd like to drill and that costs money. So getting at least some of the money sooner may make sense.

@Spratt
Many variables as to the value of gold in the ground. What is the projected AISC? What is the projected POG (it can go down, you know)? How long will it be before it comes out of the ground? What is the likelihood of it actually being mined (in our case, pretty much 100%, even if the market hasn't agreed to that yet)?

So very hard to value it at this point. But the Cu and other factors points towards a relatively low (even if not Cadia-low) AISC. Most economic and geo-political factors point towards a prospective POG for the life of the mine well in excess of $2K. We seem to be rushing with almost unseemly haste towards production (not complaining, faster, faster!).

I'd be quite happy with a value of $500, and higher is certainly very possible. I doubt it's below $350-400 in this case. Obviously it's worth more than that mined, that's an in-the-ground value.

Oh, sure, panama, compliments, compliments! I know what you really mean. Back in school the best-looking girls always complimented the "diligent and smart" guys but they never actually wanted to be seen with them! "Dull and plain" more like it, and that's just because you're too nice to say "butt-ugly"!

I'm just guessing about the warrants, don't know for sure, but the evidence seems to fit. I could be wrong again.

@Nige
The only reason for warrant holders to exercise now is if they are selling. If they are selling, I would think simply supply and demand would have had a huge impact in suppressing price rises. We know what happened when Sprott bought in, they picked up 27 million shares. SP went up 2-3 pence in a couple days.

If someone dumped 27 million shares, it would likely drive the price down somewhat accordingly. Well, it looks like warrant holders dumped 130 million, or thereabouts, over the last six months. That has to have held the price down. I think we'd be in the 15-18 range if they hadn't been doing that, and I think that's why we stayed at 12p for so long, one or more warrant holders were drip feeding their shares into the market.

Yes, I'm tempted. Was tempted at 12p, still tempted, this is still considerably undervalued IMO. But I've already breached my single-share concentration threshold here, and not taking it further.