Member Info for TakingMyTime

@Frannie, the recommenders of his post probably for the most part recommended because of this:
" Relying on info delivered on a plate can lead to complacency"

Superb advice, that. Also, most of us are used to his lack of diplomacy by now and didn't think there was anything personal in it, nor was there. He might be a curmudgeon, but he's a highly valued one.

I'm going to go back to eating onions whilst contemplating horses and sheep dogs. Which is not good for my breath, but it's better than contemplating onions whilst eating horses and sheep dogs.

PaddyPieterson

6 July "Go and get your gold and **** off it won’t ever go sub pound if it did I’d buy a **** load more but it ain’t gonna happens"

1 July "Positive news from a vaccine candidate in the us of a Pfizer have great results from this , all stocks will rise"

27 June "I’m still not having it , people will start to buy these shares now Cos fear of missing out I know it won’t get anywhere near pre Covid 700p anytime soon but these will move up"

27 June "Yeah I’m sick of seeing his doom and gloom and inexperience , he just needs to go short on IAG and when IAG sp rises on the confirmation of air corridors he can then see what a idiot he really is hope he loses everything"

26 June "I agree with you completely , why people have got to be doom and gloom all the time if they are that sure it dropping go short on it simple really isn’t it"

24 June "News will influence it I sold at 235p then bought back just now at just above 230p so I’m happy with that and I’ll do the same if it drops more I think you only lose if you sell then price rockets next day or week if you haven’t bought them back at a cheaper price you lose then just a little business just done then"

23 June "IAG are massive they will recover ,Dont sell at a loss mate they will recover in time and your never see that money back . I only sell at profit I only invest in reputable companies, you wouldt just sell your house at lower price just Cos your having a hard time with the mrs , I don’t get why people sell at a loss you just well put your money in the bank my friend"

23 June "Your be ****ed off if you don’t buy now and they go up high if they go down again it’s another chance to buy again cheap , if any positive news gets announced in the evening you got no hope getting more cheap the next day"

23 June "Good and wait there rise in time everything else is pretty much the same and tbh the longer they stay low I’ll just keep loading"

21 June "Idk if it’s just me but there seems to be to many bears here , I know it is not always positive trading but I do feel IAG are gonna grow slowly with a few bumps here and there like everyone else"

And so on....

Three choices: Believe him now, believe him then, or never believe him.

I'll take the third, LOL. DYOR, don't accept what anyone says here.

The market as a whole is being dragged down by bad news, and I think it's that fear which is hitting housebuilders right now. Certainly, everything on the HB front looks very good. The question is whether it can hold if we go back into lockdown and/or the economy as a whole tanks. Brexit fears are also a factor.

If it holds, we're on a huge winner here, I believe. Dividends will restart, and the SP will shoot up.

@Floater
Not too worried about GH's response. You can't fire shareholders even if they deserve it.

Hi, Bamps. The hedging is a set price for a particular number of ounces of Au per year. If more gold is produced it will get market price. If less, presumably NCM has to pay the difference between the market price and the hedge price -- that's the way a hedge would usually work. So it won't be based on the gold dore produced, but on the output from the refiners.

I asked Doris the sheep dog but she thought I was talking about the hedge at the end of the field, so I had to go look it up in the NCM Annual Report (p. 41).

I know, Dodge, scary, isn't it?

My neighbour's cousin's wife's best friend's sister's brother-in-law lives in Perth. This guy's horse talked to Sandeep's horse, who said that Gervaise has such bad breath that the working relationship is breaking down.

Now, I realise the horse could just have it in for Gervaise because they went riding sometime and GH didn't give it enough sugar cubes. But I've scanned the Internet and I can't find any evidence that horses ever actually lie.

Furthermore, I can't find any studies that have ever been done on how halitosis affects joint ventures. So this risk may be underestimated by the investment community.

Trying to assess how to weigh this risk, and thinking about selling my shares on Monday, what do you guys think? Any of YOU ever catch a horse in a lie? Would this make you think about selling? Aye or neigh?

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Thanks, SP, that's my take as well. Which means for those of us who (for the medium term) would prefer to be heavily in crude, Exxon is a better play than Total, though in the long term perhaps not.

Thanks to them.

@curdas, I think anything like that would have to go to RNS.

Not saying they couldn't have nailed down a price, of course they could have.

I still am far from sure this will happen, at least on this scale.

To be fair to Miagi, he stated his key assumption: "I assume that the only legal documentation that exists wrt to those scenarios is what was agreed in the initial farm in."

If that assumption were true then there's some vulnerability. It's not as bad as he states but it would be there.

The biggest issue with his comment is that if you stab one junior in the back, none of them will want to work with you. The unhappy relationship that NCM has with SOLG is to our benefit. If they fall out with GGP after already falling out with SOLG, others won't want to work with them. It's in their long-term interest to maintain good relations with the juniors. They aren't the only company out there.

Yeah, someone else was talking about this earlier, and I got educated, I thought the hedge had ended in 2019 but they extended it, unfortunately. Made sense at the time. It's for a specific amount from Telfer each year, so it wouldn't apply to the JV.

If you think you are getting a good perspective on America from the BBC, I don't know what to tell you. It's like thinking you are getting a good perspective on Britain from an American media outlet.

@curdas "The announcement should have been made only after shareholders' approval."

How in the world could that work? You have to let shareholders know it is being considered before they can approve it.

@sham, I am surprised, too. But I'm really starting to wonder if the intent is to bring forward bad news in a way that they can backtrack and not do it, or do it less, if things improve. Get all the bad news out there now.

Looking at the SP, I don't think the market really believes there's going to be a 2.75 Bn euro rights issue. If the market believed that, the price would have dropped more than 5%. So the market is assuming this is positioning, and not yet reality, with a significant chance it won't be reality.

It's clearly RI (including all holders) and not placing (a few institutions). That's the whole point of the underwriting.

If you are going to do a placing, you don't need underwriting, you need the institutional investors to agree. If you are going to do a RI, you need underwriting so that if not all of the rights are taken up, the underwriters take it up to insure you get the funds.

Agree, WF.

First thing on the new guy's plate will not be M&A but divestment (didn't anyone notice that word in there?) of SolGold. Are they going to disentangle themselves there and if so, how?

A thought on the various NCM buyout scenarios. We all agree that they need Havieron, and now they have 70-75% of it (or will soon when the FI is done). We all agree that they probably would like to own all of it, though there's no consensus on whether and when they will.

But I think if I were sitting in SB's chair, I'd be saying, "No rush. Let's see what else pans out for us in the region." If some of their other deals look like being a really big hit, then they are in a position to play off one junior against another. They don't have to buy out our remaining 25% if they can instead use the money to buy gold in the ground from ARV. So that would let them be a little tougher in negotiations.

So that's another reason they might wait a while to make a move -- they might have better offers from other juniors.

The best thing for GGP is if ARV and others nearby are unfortunate, or only moderately fortunate. If there's another Hav out there, it may end up meaning NCM won't buy our Hav and we'll just have to mine it. Which would be ok with me but I know that would disappoint some others.

Correct, triumph, it's RI, not placing.

Well, I was wrong. Still think they've jumped before they had to. Makes me wonder if they want the cash for acquisitions, because it's massive. Of course, it's possible come September that they'll say, "Well, things are better, we'll only do £1 Bn."

I think it pretty well gores Unite's ox, though. So there's that.

@speedy, I admire your consistency. My view is these people are part of the world we live in and to an extent you have to live with it. I try not to get too exposed to any one of them but my assumption is everyone in the markets is a shark and you have to be nimble and alert, but not afraid. I respect your approach, though, GL.

LOL "Did I warn you guys?"

This guy posted the identical "only shorters will win" message on three shares a while back. Word for word.

Now, he posts the identical "I told you so" message on two of the three. Why not all three? Because the third hasn't dropped.

So, he guessed right on two of three (for now, who knows if that will hold). So, we should now follow the bard's proclamations, I guess.

DYOR, and never trust anyone as to how right they've been in the past, especially if they are selective.