Member Info for TakingMyTime

What price GGP? A lot, LOL.

Worth remembering that POG of $3K would mean massive inflation which would might add a couple hundred to the AISC. Still, soaring POG is obviously good for our holdings here (if perhaps bad for other investments and the economy as a whole).

I personally hope it doesn't come to that. Will cause too much pain to too many people in too many ways. A nice steady rise to $2200 or something like that would be manageable, I think, but $3K might be devastating.

"I doubt it will make much difference if the SP is rising."
@Spratt
Well, a rising SP will let you feed them in faster, of course. And also make you have to fight through more "seller's remorse" / "FOMO" with every time you click "sell".

A very tough problem for you to have. "Man, look at it rise and I'm selling out, what kind of a fool am I?" "Man, look how exposed I am, it's surely time to take some of this in cash, what kind of a fool am I not to sell?"

Fortunately you'll have loads of lovely lolly to console yourself as you wrestle with the sell button, LOL. Good luck.

Holding. I'm here for the long term. No one knows exactly how the market will react to news or which news comes out when. Sometime in the next year, probably, maybe 2 years from now, flying will return to normal, and IAG shares will fly.

If I traded the ups and downs I might make more money but I might lose it, too. And I certainly want to be in this long term, and my avg is way, way lower than where I think it will be in future, so why mess with a good thing?

Maybe Leaf reads those two for entertainment rather than advice.

A green box appears on my screen, so one of the resident derampers is back!

"If Spratt sells his shares and causes a drop in SP then will be a good opportunity for a Top up."
He'll drip feed them into the market rather than undercut his own selling price.

@Coleey, if there is a rights issue I expect I will probably buy into it, would be surprised if I don't. But there's no way that can really be answered until we know when it is and the terms. One thing for sure, I'll have funds available if I need it because I suspect I'll be much better off buying into any rights issue than not doing so.

@BR
I sent an email to "update" at "ggphelp.co.uk". Thought that was what you meant, but it bounced. Please let me know where I went wrong. Pretend that I'm stupid (sometimes, that isn't hard to pretend, LOL).

@Quinton, thanks for the nice first post, and welcome. I think your calculation may have left out something, though, not sure what.

With a POG of $1750, and AISC of $912, that gives us $838 / oz. That, times 8 moz, gives right at $6.7 Bn USD. Newcrest gets 70%, that leaves GGP with very near $2 Bn USD. The Oz version of Hector will want 30%, that leaves $1.4 Bn USD, or roughly £1.1 Bn (GBP). Using roughly 4 Bn shares, that works out to more like 27.5p / share.

I welcome correction if any of that is wrong. I agree that some of your estimates are conservative, and that it could be better, for the reasons you gave.

Neither yours or mine reflects the fact that the gold is in the ground, it will take time to get it out, and so present-valuing will reduce the value today of the asset. Nevertheless, the calculations show there's quite significant upside here.

@Dodge, LOL.

I'm doomed because I was laughing at your post and the Mrs thought I was laughing at something else. You'll read about my murder in the press and wonder why she went off her head and never know it was your fault.

@Chrisatbirdies
"I think people are right to voice concerns, otherwise this just becomes a happy slappy club. I for one have learnt a fair bit because those concerns were aired."

100%. We're not a cult. If the questions are asked and there are no answers, it's better to know that. If the questions are asked and the answers aren't comfortable, it's better to know that, too. And if the questions are asked and the answers eliminate the concerns, then people can hold (or buy) in greater confidence and less likely to be swayed.

IMHO that's a better use of the forum then cheering each bump up in the SP.

"Are JPM and JPMC the same entity ?"

JP Morgan is a fully owned subsidiary of JP Morgan Chase. JP Morgan Investment Banking (the broker) and JP Morgan Asset Management (the funds managers who did the reviled shorting) are separate divisions of JP Morgan who are not allowed (by regulation, with stiff penalties) to share information or influence each other.

@Spratt "The risk vs reward for me has tipped, "

Then you should sell enough to tip it back, whatever anyone says. At least you aren't murdering your mother like Elise is. Although without knowing her mother, maybe we should go easy on her for that, LOL.

Honestly, everyone has different risk attitudes and investment horizons and financial goals and needs. Good luck to you.

@944, Simply Wall St is not a reliable source. Please don't make investment decisions based on what you get there. They might be right this time but if so it is an accident.

@MrP
Could the price of gold drop? Yes. If massive unemployment comes in, the major economies collapse, and the central banks can't rescue it, we could see massive deflation. Everyone will have much, much less money. The price of gold would drop just because few have enough money to buy it. In this scenario, however, those holding gold will at least have something, whereas many other assets will be worth nothing at all.

I consider that scenario very unlikely, because of the disastrous consequences. The central banks will print enough money to prevent it, which will eventually trigger inflation and drive the POG up.

Could Covid stop drilling at Hav? Of course. But it's not exactly a population centre where Covid will spread wildly. Some people will get it, everyone will lock down, pretty soon there won't be anyone left there who has it, drilling will stop. Might lose a few months, worst case.

Nice post, but I struggle to see any realistic threat, unless NCM and GGP have conspired to lie to us, in which case some people will be doing some hard time behind bars. There's no reason for them to take that kind of risk.

I view this as very substantially de-risked.

@BR "Thank you. - can you shoot me a mail update - at - GGP..."

Done, let me know if it doesn't come through.

Honest question.

@JiffyBag "Personally I don't trust them an inch given the SXX debacle."

@MattyBoy "My time at Lehman's taught me that these organisations care about themselves and their clients only, certainly not investors like us!"

Who would you prefer? We're looking for a broker to push GGP shares to institutional investors. If we end up borrowing to finance our share of the mining costs at Hav, the broker will look for institutional investors to finance it. That's what we're looking for. Numis was able to pull off the deal with the warrants last year, but they've hardly brought a stream of iis into the fold, and anyway, now they are gone.

Who in that industry is trustworthy? Who is going to be altruistic? Of course they are in it for themselves. Pull off the deals, they get a commission. But as you yourself said, Matty, anyone who does it is going to care about themselves and their clients.

The alternative is no broker, no selling to institutional investors, no one to help raise funds from iis if we need it. The SP will muddle along adding a few pence here and there while Hav (and hopefully Scal) grows and grows, and then some raider will say, "Way underpriced. Worth 74p, market has it at 22p, I'm taking over." And they'll succeed.

@Miguel/Mike, thanks, but I can't see anything wrong with what you said before even now that you've clarified. :) The division doing the shorting wasn't the division doing the advising to SXX, but you are right that there are "sharks aplenty".

Anyway, thanks for the nice words. Good luck to you.

@Spratt, I didn't take it personally. Just a difference of opinion as to whether the long posts on JPM/SXX were worthwhile or not. Differences of opinion should never be personal.

If your holding is based in part on trusting people here, you are wise to get out, or get partly out. My research went way beyond this board before the Mrs got in here, further still before we started adding more.

Congratulations on your success with this investment so far, and good luck.

@WF, good post. Though I'll add something else. GH and all were lucky. The big find was right were NCM needed it. If it was off somewhere else, it would take huge capital to bring it to production, which would mean a big miner would be able to dictate terms and take it off of us for a fraction of value. That's not our problem, solely because Hav was near Telfer and just when NCM needed a Hav. That's luck.

But as far as I can see, they've played a blinder with the good luck they had. Better than they ever dreamed, I suspect.

And it wasn't luck that they targeted Hav with their drilling. They knew NCM needed something, and tried to provide it, and won the lottery.

@Spratt "TMT you do realise most, if not all, only skim read long posts...if not just the last paragraph."

That's fine but the allegations about JPM need answered for those who care. It's confusing and upsetting people unnecessarily. We don't even know if GH is talking to JPM, but yet we have people talking about selling their shares over it. It's not something that can be answered in a paragraph or two. If someone sells their shares because of JPM and their research limit is one paragraph, their loss, I guess.

As for your decision, any share has rampers and derampers. You want to invest on the merits, not on what individual investors do. Good luck to you.