Member Info for TakingMyTime

Hasn't anyone here made enough money on this to buy poor magictrades a thesaurus?

So, my conclusions from the day:
1. This board can still take time for marital advice (of mixed quality, LOL) even when the SP is surging.
2. This share is boring. Go away for six weeks, come back, it's going to be up 3p. Go away for six weeks, come back, it's going to be up 3p. Perpetual motion machine. Yawn. Wake me up when I'm rich, at this rate shouldn't take all that long.
3. I went looking for the next GGP. There's this company doing exploration in Australia, they've got a site called Kraken that sounds pretty cool, just starting drilling there. Keep an eye on it.

Hope you all have a good time this evening, don't get too close to the river if you've had too many, you don't want to take advantage of the AIM inheritance tax deal yet.

GLA.

@TT "IMHO, it's not a 'normal/similar' pre-exploration report rally we're seeing here. It's significantly larger."

Not really. It's just delayed and come in with a rush. The surge from 9-12 was a 33% increase, this surge from 12-15 is a 25% increase, still 3p a share in each case, the only difference is the rate at which it happened.

What happens tomorrow? Still depends on results.

Nice rational assessment, RA. I agree.

@Strictly
Normally I'd weight PE ratio pretty highly, but not in this market.

I look at the company. I don't think long-term average PE is indicative for PSN because they've had to go through a major transition to sort out their bad build quality issues / bad press, etc. I assumed that would cost some money. In their case, I looked at the management in Dec 2018 and became convinced they really were committed to the culture change.

I also look at things like where they operate (I didn't want London / Southeast exposure) and how they would cope if there was a Brexit disaster. I didn't expect a Covid disaster, of course, but major upheaval is always possible.

I could certainly take profits because the build-quality / bad publicity issue is no longer built into the share price and I've made my profit by reading the company correctly. I still think PSN is better positioned for any Brexit upheaval than other builders. Crest is too SE-exposed for me.

I look at gearing, ROE/ROCE, really the whole picture of the balance sheet and earnings statements. It's not scientific, it's general. I look for red flags, I look for strong points that I think aren't represented by the SP.

I'm in Rotork because I'm convinced they are good long term management, have a good restructuring plan, and are well-positioned to benefit from infrastructure surge. I expect infrastructure to surge because: A) Boris wanted it before B) it's a reasonable way to restart an economy C) I expect supply chains to shorten post-Covid with less dependence on foreign (especially Chinese) suppliers -- companies don't want to lose their suppliers for six months because there is an epidemic in some obscure place in China. So, more plant is coming home, in my view.

I give that as an illustration -- my purchase of Rotork is not so much based on the financials, though they are strong, but because of how I see the wind blowing on a macro level in the economy and in governmental economic policy.

So, financials are important and will put me off a company, certainly, but there are many factors I consider, and it's too nebulous to define in a bulletin board post. Sorry if all this is boring but you asked.

@RA, gold in the ground is only coming out of the ground over time. Therefore, you have to present value it, at least.

In addition, there's a strong possibility the gold will be sold whilst still in the ground. If so, it's likely to be sold at a discount (beyond the present valuing discount) due to the risks the buyer is taking. Cash in the hand is better than gold in the ground so the guy giving cash in the hand is going to give less of it.

Finally, if it isn't sold, increasing POG reflects increasing inflation (also not one-to-one, of course), so an increase in POG is likely to be associated with increasing costs of mining.

Obviously, increases in POG are very beneficial to owners of gold in the ground, but it really isn't a 1-1 benefit.

Even more so with current increases which have been accompanied by increases in cable. Some of the increase in the gold price is simply dollar weakness. The POG in pounds has not gone up as much as POG in US dollars, though today is going our way on this one.

@schlemiel, for sure, it would be nice to know.

Maybe it's Donald Trump. This is "gonna be yuge," after all.

We'll have the Donald retweeting Paddy, and the Republican half of America will want to buy GGP, the Democratic half will think Trump's out of his mind, and all Americans will be right for the first time ever.

@schlemiel "Could we be seeing Sprott (Canada) coming in for more stock?"

It might well be a North American institution and it might be one of Sprott's funds. But it won't be the Jr ETF that bought last time, that fund is a tracker and doesn't rebalance until November.

@MrPartridge, I think you are asking for ggphelp.co.uk. Good luck to you and your friend.

@merc "Cant remember who posted it but someone said that based on a 10m oz deposit, that every $12 increase in the POG added £30m To our mcap"

Apparently no one answered this, or I missed it. $12 increase on 10m oz is obvious $120m (USD). Divided by 4 (to reflect our share of the deposit) is $30m (USD), more like £24m.

But the calculation doesn't reflect the fact that there's not a one-to-one relationship between POG in the market and POG in the ground, nor does it reflect the fact that the Australian government will want a substantial share of the extra profit. At best, it's probably worth £10 million to GGP. And whether that is actually reflected in the market cap depends on the vagaries of the market.

Forgot to say, Nige, GGP is flying and Mrs TMT is now 57% up since she took a flyer on it. Appreciate you (and TomE) giving us the tip. I didn't get in until later than she did but still very nicely in profit.

Nige, I agree none going out of business. But those with plenty of cash in hard times don't have to borrow (BWY apparently already on the wrong side of that line). And in hard times they also are positioned to take advantage of opportunities to acquire assets inexpensively. I believe both BDEV and BWY stopped their land acquisitions. PSN reduced but did not stop. Some smaller builders might be in quite distressed position, PSN is in position to come in and acquire them. Similarly PSN is in better position to take advantage of lower costs for equipment and supplies.

Ultimately, I think it comes down to the fact that you weight PE ratio much more highly than I do in your system. Your system has worked very well for you, so you probably should stick with it. My approach has worked very well for me, as well.

Most of the time, we'll be ending up with the same decision, because our approaches aren't that different. Right now we see it differently because you weight PER heavily, and I usually do, too, but right now I'm almost entirely ignoring PER due to the weird market conditions.

Mostly, I'm sticking with the companies I know well (I know PSN better than other builders, by far) and am confident will come through strong even if we have another hit to the economy. It may mean there's other opportunities that I'll miss that are better but I'm comfortable with it within my overall strategy.

I went into mining and exploration rather than physical gold.

There's something to be said for copper, too, FWIW.

I was in, ironically enough, Zoom meetings all afternoon.

The resistance south of 13p always had to break sometime. Am sure the POG helped, but it really does look like some institutional investor money came in, getting in before the results. The NCM broker meeting right after results will have been grabbing ii attention.

Pretty cool day, won't be surprised if we breach 14 and maybe 14.5p or even 15 tomorrow, the resistance is gone, and hard to see anyone selling much tomorrow.

Hi, Nige. At the 6 July trading update, BDEV had £305m cash. PSN on 9 July reported £830m cash. Obviously BDEV is larger so to have significantly less cash is to be significantly less secure in this environment. Obviously, without further bad news they have plenty of cash, but should there be a bad second wave and a hard hit from Brexit or some other major shock, things would not be too comfortable at Barratt.

BWY has net bank debt. It does have committed bank facilities and could draw on the CCFF, so is unlikely to run into serious cash flow problems, but is hardly close to comparable to PSN in its financial strength. Also, they asked their subcontractors to cut their rates, something PSN didn't do. That is the kind of thing that can have long-term ramifications -- the best subcontractors will want to work for the company that stood by them.

There are reasons the market is valuing PSN more highly now relative to the other builders. They've got a much stronger balance sheet, and in volatile and uncertain markets, that has appeal to a lot of investors (including me).

"I wish it was the neck down - I've got a lot more bulk in that area."

Well, if so, and if the stuff from the neck down is the same quality as the stuff from the neck up, you'd be Mr Universe, LOL.

@trucky, I feel complimented. Our new member has obviously read all my posts to be able to comment so emphatically on them.

@TomE
Hope your advisor is correct. My trust in government is not all that high.

I, too, was jesting about 2-3 lines. Yet, your jest had a point, I do know that I tend to ramble on. It's that I like to explain my reasoning rather than just giving an opinion, but it does get lengthy sometimes. I keep trying to do better but old habits die hard.

ATB

"fantasy broker "Zoom" chats (ps, corporates use MS teams) that some really wanting to PnD this stock."

Have been on 9 corporate Zoom meetings in the last week, involving more than 30 corporations.

Just saying.

MS teams is really unsatisfactory in some ways.

@TomE, you might want to read up on the contractor loan charge and retrospective taxation.

In brief, they are now taxing people for "tax avoidance" on schemes that were technically legal at the time, and the current taxation is punitive by dragging the entire income into a single year, therefore insuring it is all at the highest tax rate.

It has caused extreme outrage and drawn criticism from many quarters. After a review, they modified it slightly but it is still retrospective taxation.

In short, they can change the rules. They might have a hard time changing rules for last year and previous years, that would indeed be "retrospective taxation" and they might lose that in the courts. But they certainly could say that "ISAs end on 6 April, and any gains or dividends you receive on ISAs after that are fully taxable."

They could even say they end "as of noon today." That would prevent people selling their shares before 6 April to get their capital gains booked before the tax hits.

Again, I think this is highly unlikely, I think a lifetime limit or preventing future contributions could happen but messing with existing ISAs is unlikely to happen. But there is no legal reason it couldn't.

Sorry, I know this is longer than you prefer, but the answer to your question doesn't fit on 2-3 lines.