Member Info for TakingMyTime

@mushroom
"So TmT, that's a bit like a stone attached to a rubber band, pulling us under the water a tad, until it pings next August and we rise like a salmon with an almighty leap to the top of the waterfall."

Yes, but let's be clear, at the rate things have been going the ping will happen before next August. That stone is sandstone and it eroded 57% of its weight in the last six months.

I suspect the start of the decline or a nice MRE will burst the rubber band, anyway.

@Saber See here: https://ggphelp.co.uk/ggp_help/frequently-asked-questions/

Long discussion on "What are Warrants" at the bottom there. I wrote that stuff on warrants in answer to questions here and BottleRocket, a member here who was kind enough to put the site together, copied it over there.

Feel free to ask questions here if that doesn't explain it all. Best of luck.

Folks, it's simply NOT MMs holding the SP back. That doesn't make much sense anyway.

It's warrant holders cashing in. There have been 130 million warrants exercised in the last six months. Since the warrants don't expire until next August, there is little to no reason for most holders to exercise unless they intended to go ahead and sell them. That surely means over 100 million, and probably over 120 million, shares have been dumped on the market in the last six months by warrant holders who exercised and sold.

That's also running down. Less than 100 million left. A lot of those may well be held until next August. The warrants are likely to have a significantly reduced impact on SP going forward.

Pretty much matches my thinking, Happy. I won't even be surprised if it goes higher than 350, and I won't reduce my holding yet. May never sell out of BP entirely. But as BP is rebalancing, I will, too. This was not intended by me to be a renewables investment.

Nice. When everyone else is slashing theirs.

@Paddy "That would probably tie in nicely with the expansion of the camp to cater for the decline crews - it ask seems to be knitting together nicely."

One would almost think that someone has a plan to bring things together to get things going as quickly as possible!

@Fc1865
https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/NCM

Trending up nicely in recent months. Combination of POG and growing confidence that Hav is a winner.

Thought your mate promised us this would rocket. It's rocketed down since you said that, what's with him? What a clanger he is.

@Happy
I'll be reducing my holding here, probably buy Exxon. Hope the results give us a boost before making the change.

I totally understand what Looney is doing, but I want to hold oil right now.

Probably factored in. Might have been some few who were hoping for better, some who feared worse, but on average I think this is what was expected.

Results are reasonably good, though, a little better than I expected. I expect BP to have a positive day relative to the rest of the market. No clue whether the market as a whole will go up or down, though. I suspect it will open up, and that BP will be one of the better performers.

@RA Most buyouts include some risk. Hav takes a huge chunk of the risk away.

Any major would be glad to have Scal and would be willing to include something for it if making an acquisition. Sure, there's risk but there's also major upside. Rio wanted Rudall. These things have some value and we aren't the only one that would be willing to take a risk on them.

I don't anticipate a takeover but if the SP stays low as the publicly known value of Hav increases, the likelihood of a hostile move increases, and it isn't limited to miners. Any speculator, looking at the price of gold, could say, "30% of Hav at that price? I'll take it."

@Dagger, glad you are back at work, best of luck to you and your wife.

@Stuart "Objections to the application can be taken up to the 7th September FWIW"

Let's file an objection that we want to see an MRE, shall we? ;)

It would give those with better news access, and those who read more quickly, an advantage. By releasing before the markets open, and giving everyone time to see it, it supposedly levels the playing field.

"because I want to spend 500 pounds and it comes out at 1001 shares......"
I will beat that, I will sell you 1002 shares for your £500. I wasn't intending to top slice but at that price....

@speedy
We'll temporarily forgive your booboo, but come the weekend, we'll analyse why you made it, what it means, how it affects the rotation of the earth, and whether it tells us anything about the future POG and exchange rates, and how that affects the case for investing in GGP.

Thanks, it's always nice to know the next weekend is already covered.

Largely agree with Dean here.

Depends on your risk profile and investment horizon. If buying a house next year your answer is different from if you are willing to hold for 15 years to realise gains.

If, and it's a big if, the RI goes through for the full amount listed, you'll be adding significantly to your IAG holding anyway.

If it makes any difference to you, Berenberg just lowered their target price from 375 to 300, still (obviously with that target price) rating it as a buy. https://www.lse.co.uk/news/IAG/berenberg-lowers-target-price-on-iag-retains-buy-rating-5rew6pcqjh558q6.html

Their logic is perhaps more compelling than some of the naysayers here. That word "consolidation" basically means they think IAG will use the money to buy up distressed assets.

I am still pretty strongly of the view that we're in a strong buying opportunity. But I'm not pretending it isn't risky. It is, and I'm not adding even though I think I'm probably missing an opportunity. I've learned to be disciplined on risk / exposure and if I take up the RI, which I fully intend to do if it actually happens, I'll have maxed out how much I want to be exposed to a risky share like this one.

But I can't possibly answer for you because I don't know how old you are, what's happening in your life, how much money you have here, how much money you have elsewhere, what your view on risk is, how risky your other investments are, etc.

Sometimes it makes sense to grab an opportunity and go in heavily. Other times, doesn't matter how good it is, the risks matter more than the rewards. I'm at the point in my life where the latter case is coming more and more into play. You'll have to decide for yourself.

In my view (and Berenberg's), if you invest more here it will probably be profitable, and maybe very profitable, within a couple years. But the risks are there.

" I'm not accusing him of insider stuff anyway just interested to know how the system works really."

Just in case any moderators have twitchy fingers, the application was lodged at 8:30 Aussie time so it would have been a matter of public record at that point, even if the RNS didn't hit until later this morning. Reddirt posted it just after 8 our time, hours after it was lodged.

Hi, Paddy. The Marlborough sale was effective end of April, but just not reported until now. You can see that all the way to the right on the funds tab. (It's a typical 3 month delay, actively managed funds don't want to give too much timely info about what they are doing). So that's not been a big factor in the last month.

I noticed the Natixis as well. That might be warrants. Or, it could be sales by a HNW investor who had an account with them. Could even be GW or CB, potentially, although neither of them sold that much in the month of July. Whatever it is, it's 8.6 million shares sold on the market last month, and the market absorbed them, and any options / warrants not included in them. The market still hasn't caught on to the value of this share but it looks obvious to me there's been a lot of profit-taking going on and we're still on our upward trend. Next time we breach 15 I think we are likely to stay above it.

I wasn't complaining, LOL. But they are no longer heavily weighted in GGP even if they retain the 8 million shares. The fund is £140 million, they have six different companies in which they hold over 2% (£2.8 million), their GGP holding is worth less than half of that right now. I expect they'll sell those 8 million before we get to Mickey's 74p, however.