Member Info for Takayama

Eric, I wish you the best. I know you've stuck at this a long time.
Suzy - I'm flattered you think my posts are worthy of re-reading by anyone. But I think that if anyone has time enough to read War and Peace, they're better off doing so rather than my posts on LSE. All I'd say to anyone is make up your own mind. Never, ever, make an investment decision based on what others are saying - there are plenty of people out to "protect their investments" as I have been told on this board, and there are plenty who have some other motive for wasting their time posting here. No one really knows where the SP will go, and if it was that easy, we'd all be millionaires doing better things with our time. So you need to make your own decision, and sure, work out who has the best argument on the board if you wish to. Good luck.

Hi borg. It's a fair question. To be honest, in my experience, AIM share price is pretty random and rarely really related to things like NAV or other concrete indicators that you'd find in a text book (though that's perhaps because I tend to look at early stage companies like BEM). You're right, it could be any of those. Or it could be 6p. But the point is that the trend is definitely down until Kurt announces what he's going to do with the asset, which isn't until December at least as far as I can see. As more people bail out, with a lack of a clear direction, fear sets in. Fear of missing out of being able to sell your shares at this price again. Fear that the company will run out of money and not be able to raise more (it isn't easy) so you end up with nothing. Fear of a fresh dilution, and at a lower price at that! Fear of new risks emerging. And so because of this fear, you bail out - and then there's a self fulfilling prophecy. The SP continues its downward trajectory. There is no doubt about the value of the asset that BEM is sitting on, but then again, the same was true of Sirius. But if you look at EML, the financing model to bring mining to fruition is clear and realisable, though they're (also) being given a really hard time by AIM, though slightly less so. Plenty of other examples exist. As well as examples of companies where the board gets it together and all of a sudden you're faced with a proper re-rating (not reliant on speculative shareholders buying in because of sentiment, eg Serica is a good example from a few years ago, from 7p to 140p, another extractor fraught by family tragedy but a really great board). But there is nothing at all with BEM in terms of direction. Squat. And that isn't the fault of the government, the Sami, the resource, nor the shareholders. I have to admit that BEM appears to be reasonably well run, but there's just a lack of spark at the top and perhaps expertise in pushing things to the next level. It's a little odd not to have completed at least, say, "preliminary discussions with a partner to deliver a working mine" by the time the concession was awarded. So that doesn't generate confidence. I don't think the fundamentals are all bad (except for the fact that it is basically burning cash with no clear indication of where the next cash is coming from aside from fresh fundraising/dilution and that cash will only be used for running costs. I think it's got enough money for eoy 2023, so fundraising is around the corner - and the question is what price will that be?) The discounted fundraising price will determine the SP at that point, so as far as I can see, the only question is whether to bail out now and buy back in at that lower SP, or perhaps a week after the price has settled - and then only if you believe the company will deliver on the resource? Anyway, we all have our own strategies in dealing with AIM. I hope yours brings you the prosperity you are seeking.

Whilst your question isn't directed at me Eric, I would like to comment. I have an enormous amount of sympathy for Roller and other shareholders here. Like others here, I am disappointed at seeing a board not on the front foot.
Anyway Eric, the idea that there is engineering in the SP drop is fanciful. The idea that MMs manipulate prices or, as you suggest, a company is engineering price drops, is absolute nonsense. The SP drop is about three things: (1). its about sentiment. People jump in when they think others will jump in. They have not much understanding about the company's management and want to make a quick buck. It's inevitable that when the SP drops, they will bail. (2) Its about better opportunities elsewhere. Budge said nothing much would happen before the end of the year. So those investors jumping in on sentiment created late last year around the Swedish government know there is absolutely NO reason to hold. Nothing to drive the SP up will happen until at least December. Better opportunities elsewhere. (3) Its about weak leadership. We all know Kurt is a nice guy. He knows about geology and mining. But he doesn't really have the drive or passion to make this work. He loves investors who are undemanding because it means he can do what he wants, which, lets face it, isn't particularly passionate. He tends to ignore tough questions and is more like a leaf floating down the river. One of the few reasons BEM still exists and had funding is because of the small number of passive shareholders.
Personally I'm expecting the SP to drift back down to at least the 4p level because of the above. It will go up one day, but only if it survives long enough. Many companies have great assets, but they mean very very little if you don't have the funding to exploit them. KB may get the funding, but that'll be somewhat random given his performance so far. So how long until BEM run out of money and go cap in hand again to shareholders? And if that happens, why on earth would anyone bail them out if they haven't yet worked out a plan to exploit Kallak? When that funding failure happens, it'll be an attractive buy for LKAB, perhaps at 4p per share.

Hydrogen's only going one way. I'd love to be in a position of setting UK's energy policy. To have the power to accelerate the switch to green energy. Tackling Russian financing for the war and climate change at the same time. It's going to happen, the only question is when. UK Ministers would do well to remember supply creates its own demand.

I agree reece. One of the vagaries of AIM. SP, more often than not, fails to recognise potential or even NAV. Brings with it problems in financing to push projects forward. It's far more about sentiment on AIM, regardless of how much potential we recognise. It takes an exceptional management team to buck the trend and find ways around the difficulties a low SP brings. I've seen some real stinkers get sky high valuations on the back of nothing, while others with great potential tank. Nowt we can do about it but ride the wave when we can.

I’m guessing Eric Draven has sold too?

I’d say that if Suzy2 has sold (even if she ‘shares the vision’,) then its a pretty strong indication to the rest of us about the direction this is going to go. I very much doubt there’s any bad news in the immediate future and it’s simply profit taking from everyone who was here to get a profit.

Some great posts from Suzy today. Keep it up!
It's only a three bagger if she managed to sell it at 9.48p. Now it's less than a three bagger and the chart seems to be suggesting it's going back down to 3p again. And whilst I haven't read every one of Suzy's more than ten thousand posts about Beowulf (approx three weeks work if you reckon she spends a minute a post, and worked non stop eight hours a day, seven days a week), I'm guessing she hasn't sold, so it doesn't look like she's done that well from it. I remember another poster pointing out that a profit is a profit. There is another suggestion that it's profitable not to get emotionally attached to a share. Not sure if there's any truth in those observations.

I really wouldn't worry about the SP drop. It hasn't got anything to do with the core business. It's 'retail' and that's it. AIM is all about the wild blend of investors, and it's that which produces the enormous profits if you time it right and you read it right. AIM provides wild extremities in SP which don't reflect NAV, potential or any reality, either over or undervalued. Brought on by the bunch of lemmings that us AIM investors are, making money out of people who believe they understand the company or the local politics better than others. The fundamental problem BEM faces is how to finance a working mine now. It would be useful to see the plan Kurt has for that with a timeline (and none of that small cap exaggerated optimism) asap, and how he's going to finance it. I've no idea what's on his mind, and neither has anyone else. That's the problem. I think other posters are right - he's a miner. But you also need to be a businessman. A few words in the ear of the likes of Anglo American in the last few years, building up relationships and plans, so when the concession was granted, it could have been followed by a swift "Great, and here's what we're doing now to bring the mine to fruition by 2025 without selling the company at a price of 4p per share" would have been useful. But we can see little such preparation. It's all about leadership in the end, and there appears to be an air gap here. I'm sure Kurt is a nice guy and I tip my hat for his resolute approach to the concession, so no offence intended Kurt when you read this (and we know you read the boards). GLA if you intend holding. I really hope it pays off. It's a company with good concessions and it would be an injustice if it folds in the same way that others have.

Eric. There's no reason to hold now, that's why. Before getting it, you had speculative hope. That brought in the people who inflated that particular bubble. The average AIM investor here right now is here to make a quick buck. They're all bailing out now that the buck has been made. Off to new pastures. The company hasn't changed at all. But there are better opportunities elsewhere until thee is reason to buy in again. Plenty of people are watching here, but now they're watching to perhaps take a position at around 3p- 4p, or else watching for the next bit of news which will be, as Kurt has explained, towards the end of the year. If BEM survives, that'll be a success, but many a big miner will be waiting for BEM to teeter on the edge of collapse to get the best possible price (ie, the cheapest) price for what BEM is holding. Finance is the big thing now - finance to survive and finance to develop the assets it holds. But the life of the small explorer like BEM is a tough one. You saw what happened to Sirius, right?

J2300 - It's a random guess. At this stage, everyone's guess is random. The share price doesn't reflect NAV at all. We all know that. We're on AIM, without a bank of well paid analysts investing pension funds behind us, providing the bulk of investment decisions and a certain rationality. We've got a rag tag mix of 'get rich quick' with 'growth investment strategists' and a bunch of other strategies for investing investors. It's the relative inconsistency of investors you get on AIM which lead to ridiculous valuations either side and so the opportunities. I'm looking for growth in a sector I believe will grow quicker than others. First mover advantage. So I believe we have a ridiculously cheap opportunity here. The LEAP IPO is almost a burden because while it will provide capital for that strategic growth, it will also provide a distraction in the short term. I think the other investments are excellent.

I'd venture that the belief that the LEAP IPO will somehow lead to a SP above 11p giving people the opportunity to sell is absolutely fanciful. I say that because I've seen it elsewhere on AIM, PIs believing that they have somehow spotted a news event that is upcoming and that they are the only ones. And when the event does happen, you get a spike for about three minutes when everyone sells. Good luck if you're waiting for LEAP IPO to provide an opportunity to sell. Better to look at fundamentals of a company, how it handles its investments and look for value led growth. Warren Buffett is perhaps the closest model we can follow here at SEED.

Bilbo. I would suggest we are where we are now precisely because of Linde. Without them we’d still only have the old factory. It’ll take time to get speed up but we’re in a better position with Linde than without.

Bilboburglar. Maybe you should join Les in Soguard Hydrogen! You’d land contracts in no time like Les claims he had.

Les is a one person band. Like many of us, he can see the potential of H2 but doesn't have the financial backing to make it work. It's easy to set up a name in Companies House and call yourself 'Hydrogen Industries Incorporated' or whatever, but a completely different thing to make it work. I'm not particularly surprised ITM turned him down. I can imagine the reasons beyond that he lacked credibility, more on how on earth is he going to finance his ambitions? Particularly if he keeps CAPSLOCK on for all of his communications. Reminds me of a particular type of poster. Sounds like he'd be an enthusiastic lead creator for ITM perhaps, but then so would we all if we were retired with plenty of time on our hands.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/12122765/filing-history

https://players.brightcove.net/4090876629001/default_default/index.html?videoId=6284728464001
Duh!

This presentation provides lots of useful info. Check out 5.46. "ITM is our top pick in the electrolyser sector".

I hadn't really looked into Moon Active before, so thanks for the posts guys. I can see why you're so frustrated and suspicious! Moon was valued at $5 Billion last November! So we got rid of 5.9% for $500k in 2017! That would now be worth nearly $30M! Can't really understand the reasons for selling. Perhaps the lesson is not to buy and sell and buy and sell and so on. But perhaps get an investment, and if you think it is a good one, hold on to it and buy more when you can. If we now had that $30M additional to current NAV, then it would be unlikely we'd be at 5p! And what are we doing with LEAP, just at the moment it seems to be doing so well? Just for the sake of getting an up to date valuation and some extra cash to put into new investments? I, for one, am not bothered about any delay in sale of LEAP. To be fair, I'd almost rather we simply held on to it, and attracted cash for investment in other ways. LEAP is simply going to be worth more in five years time. And there's less risk. I'm lucky in buying and selling shares SOME times, but not all the time. There are plenty I wished I had held on to rather than sell only to put into something new. Any jump in SP due to the new valuation (as a result of a sale) of LEAP is likely to only last around 15 minutes before it's dissipated away.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/congress-vote-federal-legalization-marijuana-cannabis-stock-prices-senate-2022-3

Winding the company down would involve selling the assets and returning cash to shareholders. So a SP of 5p is inconsequential. In my experience, you would always get more for an asset by going private - a placing with another well placed individual invested in the asset or asset class - than by relying on the vagaries of AIM, or even the main market. So regardless of the SP, holders of the shares would get back a lot closer to the NAV than we are now.
Who is the talking horse btw? And why/how would they do a massive dilution? I'd be on the board, perhaps with one or two of you so would block any attempt to stymie my return of value to shareholders. I still get the frustration btw. And that's my theory of why the SP is down. We need a quick turnover to maintain interest. That's it.