Member Info for Takayama

The shore capital broker's note suggests a risk-adjusted valuation of 18p per share. This is triple today's SP. Factors standing in the way are: (1) ESIA, (2) completed financing and (3) agreement on land packages. Out of those three, I'd suggest (2) is perhaps the most complicated. Let's face it, the ESIA is expected to come through, and why wouldn't the land packages come through. Does anyone have any figures to hand on (2)?
I have to admit to scratching my head a bit. Even (2) I would have thought are likely to come through now Belarus and Russia are likely to be looked upon as less reliable suppliers of potash. EML has got to be a good bet for debt investors. We're only 30% of expected SP?
Any guesses on what event is going to trigger an influx of confidence aka buying of shares? I doubt the ESIA will make much difference because it doesn't seem in the balance in my eyes. It seems to be a given.
Thanks

LB: Sure, but the point I was responding to was what would happen with the SP after the LEAP IPO announced. There are some on this board who are saying they are invested, expecting a big spike in SP on the IPO, at which point they're selling. I'm saying that I don't expect much of a spike at all. And the reasons I give explain why I think that.

I'd offer a fourth scenario from the sale of LEAP - very little change in SP. LEAP already has it's intrinsic value. IPO'ing it will give it a more accurate valuation, and then SEED will get the cash to invest in cannabis companies. So why would anyone buy SEED (pushing the SP up) if the LEAP money isn't being distributed to shareholders? In fact, there will be people selling - as this board has shown! So quite possibly there'll be a virtually static SP or a drop! In effect, nothing will have changed (in terms of the company being more attractive to invest in) after the IPO is announced. Sure, there will be a more accurate valuation of the portfolio, but at the moment, our SP is around half of NAV anyway. Nav and SP have a tempestuous relationship. So even if NAV doubles, with no immediate cash return and only retail investors (hoping for a quick buck) on board or likely to get on board, it's unlikely to attract new investors who will understand that this is a cannabis stock. Where is the quick buck? The only thing that will really push the SP up is a decent focussed portfolio (cannabis) and positive sentiment around cannabis, the likes of which we last saw with the Kanabo IPO. I'm not convinced the LEAP IPO will bring the bonanza that some think. I'd sell now and go elsewhere tbh if that was my reason for being here. It isn't - my reason is that I can see the inevitable domino fall, starting from Germany this October. And this is a stupidly low price to get in at, to get low risk, well thought out exposure to a massive new market. GLA.

Markjenn - you're right My mental arithmetic went wrong somewhere! Hope no one made an investment decision based on that calculation I made! Thanks for the correction!

An average spend of £15 per product would bring a turnover of £750k a year. Modest and reasonable at this stage. The really interesting thing is the use of TikTok (and other social media). That's phenomenal and provides support to Ed's view of SouthWest Brands as being marketing masters.

Suzy2, As always, it seems there is more we agree about than disagree about. But ultimately, if it doesn't go through, the person making the decision will blame someone else. I, of course, don't know how that blame will look. But it certainly won't be the politician saying 'no' that will take the blame. I don't like anyone losing their money, so I wish you well nevertheless. All I'll lose is an opportunity to get in at this price. But on balance, there appears to be more risk in staying in and waiting for the decision, than just putting money in once the decision is made. Good luck if you believe it is a rubber stamp process that will be completed within four weeks.

By 'there's no chance of that', I presume you mean there's no chance the government will say no? If so, well, good luck. You've placed your bet. But of course, you have nothing but your own opinion to support your opinion, so to speak. Ultimately, politicians will make a political decision. And if there's a way they can personally avoid the blame from an unpopular decision, they'll do so. It is easy sometimes, in the confines of the echo chamber which constitute message boards like this, to disregard the other points of view. Dismissing UN Special Rapporteurs and the impact they can have is, ahem, of course an approach you can take. I'd guess that in terms of domestic Swedish political impact, Greta, and the UN will have greater impact than you Suzy2 and everyone else on this board, no matter how right you believe you are.

Not sure why anyone would question the status of UN Special Rapporteurs? Neither am I sure what makes you think this has been around 'for a while'. This is the iteration of a position made 12 days ago. Seems pretty clear to be recent, the views of experts charged by a world body, and places enormous pressure on the government of Sweden. I made a few bucks with this recent rise, but ready to stand back and reinvest when/if the licence gets awarded. Sure, there may be a decision, but ultimately it is a political decision. I imagine that if it's a no, and it goes to the courts, the incumbent government will blame previous government for actually allowing exploration in the first place - it was so long ago. A reasonably easy get out for any government. But of course, it may be a yes. Feels rather uncertain at the moment, even though some may wish to convince themselves otherwise, given of course the fact that they have placed their bets on a yes.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/un-advisers-urge-sweden-stop-mine-home-indigenous-sami-2022-02-10/

i'm not invested here myself, and am watching for the general sentiment on the CBD market. I know this isn't a 'double your money' company in two months, but the RNS is honest about the issues. That in itself (on AIM) should be applauded and is indicative of good leadership, always good for success. There'll always be niggling issues on products as they get developed, the big issue is advertising. But this is set to change. Remember when you couldn't trade CBX via Barclays? And watch what happens in Germany later this year. And of course, then the dominos fall. It really does feel like it's around the corner. You won't double your money in a matter of weeks here, so it's a bit pointless blaming your woes on the company. It does appear to be well led. As I said, I'm not even invested here (not enough funds!). https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/world/europe/germany-legalize-recreational-marijuana.html

I'd really rather not be posting this bit of my own analysis as war clouds gather. But they are. Regardless of whether Putin invades or not, he's already massively damaged business perception of Russia as a reliable supplier. War will bring sanctions. Alternative supplies from Russia and Belarus will be sought. This has only got to increase the pressure to get the mine up and running.
https://www.mining.com/web/belarusian-potash-force-majeure-adds-to-global-fertilizer-chaos/

First mover advantage: The shipment value of ~€200,000 is not material, however with the award LGP has joined a small group of international cannabis producers qualified to supply cannabis flower medicines into Italy, positioning LGP strongly for future upcoming Italian Government tenders. Italy has a population of 60 million people and a Total Addressable Market estimated at ~A$10 billion.

Well guys, I can see despair, anger, stress on the board. I'd remind all that nothing is going to happen until at least April. So don't wind yourself up. The other thing I'm rather amazed about is the idea of owning more than £100k worth in small cap like this in the hope of doubling your stake overnight. It seems obvious to me that won't happen. The more you own, the quicker you're going to sell when you get that boost in price and so the less likely the boost will happen (for so so many reasons). Being part of a 'secret group' will only mean that the 'leader' of the group, if they have insights amounting to the ability to 'inside trade' will be the first of that group to sell - and can influence all you others (aka suckers) at your own expense. This is a tiny cap guys! If you have so much money to invest, move it to something where there'll be more liquidity! The SP will move on after good news, but only when it is attractive for perhaps the more average investor (aka less than 1% of the company) is able to buy and sell in a normal environment. Look at the difficulty Rhonda has had off loading her load! Reading about some of you's claims about how much stock you hold makes me wonder whether this stock is worth investing in at all as some will disproportionately influence the share price! If you hold so much stock, just get together with the other two or three here boasting about the massive size of their holdings and get yourselves a place on the board and turn the company into the world beater that Ed is trying to make it!!!!

I know the Credit Suisse analyst cut ITM to underperform today, but he/she really does seem to be missing the big picture. Nothing ITM does will really affect it's potential for explosive profit. The thing that will affect ITM are extraneous events - world events like Putin putting Russia in a position that the rest of the world looks at Russia as an unreliable supplier of energy. It's these macro-shocks that will ultimately determine the pace of change in the Hydrogen economy. If I were the boss of that analyst team, I'd be calling the analyst who made the under perform call in for a little chat in my office. Today's bounce back started pre-RT news of withdrawal. It has little to do with the wider relief felt. I'm guessing the implications of Putin's actions are starting to sink in with investors. It may turn out to be a win win (though not for Putin, who will be in a lose - lose situation whatever he does now). Unexpected fail for Putin on the foreign policy side here, so far.

Sea angler - I really hope you are right. This is one bump up of ITM share price I'd be happy to miss. I wouldn't want to predict what happens either way at this stage. It really feels uncertain. But even if Putin does pull back, he's essentially already ruined the Russian economy. Who would want to use the Russians to provide a stable supply of gas in the future? And the Germans have GOT to be looking at alternatives to gas now. Their relationship with the US is too important to sanction Nordstream 2. And they've got to realise that they're just inviting trouble in the future if they don't go green more quickly than ever. I get the green lobby in Germany is looking at Russian gas as a transitional fuel, but the argument for that transition to be stepped up ten fold has only got stronger with this tension (given nuclear is not on the table). Germany's really got to work out their energy transition policy quickly now. Anyone with insights into German thinking on Hydrogen?

1. The seller is back. Again, why sell £10k at 6.09 New Pence? Not if you're a trader unless you're a particularly bad one. It's someone who just wants to offload because they're going elsewhere. No one will buy while that seller is there.
2. Why invest in SEED beyond the LEAP return? For pretty much the same reason you'd invest anywhere. Sure Midas you can trade here if you want, but you can also invest. I get the trading argument because I look at prices on a daily basis, an hourly basis sometimes, and can spot the wins. But I also get the investing argument. Cannabis is on the edge of a massive revolution in the industry. 10 bag every where else in the cannabis world, possibly this time next year (post October in Germany), and you can be sure that SEED will be somewhere up there close to the 10 bag though with less risk than if I put everything in a single David Beckham backed CBD company. It may not be next year, but as sure as eggs is eggs, over the next twenty years, I bet that SEED will grow more than Shell or BP.

I hate to say it but war with Russia will provide the boost to the hydrogen economy, the likes of which we would have never otherwise seen. Any commodities investor worth their salt will be thinking twice now about investing in pipelines or any carbon development with Russia. There's going to be a massive spike in oil and gas prices as a result and all of a sudden, green hydrogen is going to look cheap. The economics of hydrogen are going to change enormously. Why wouldn't the PM think up a decent energy policy involving Hydrogen? (Btw, the fact that we buy Norwegian gas doesn't matter in any of this - it's the fact that Russia will turn off the tap - or threaten to turn off the tap, that will pump up the spot price. And that's the price of Norwegian gas. That's the free market for you).

I always like your posts ODONNELL. Personally, I think October (German cannabis news) will be a significant piece of news. The rerating following the valuation of our LEAP holding will be useful, but the real value will follow October 2022. It really depends how much time one has to dip in and out really, as you've pointed out. There's been many a share I regret having tried to second guess the movement of. If only I had left them in that bottom drawer and forgotten about them!

Regardless of what we say on this board, and how much we try to prove to each other how relevant ITM's technology is, regardless of HMG's 'green agenda', you have to hand it to China who are building 1000 hydrogen refuelling stations in addition to all the other stuff. Not much of course, it's one per million of population, but compared to the UK where it's one per ten million of population, well, China is ten times ahead of BoJo. I don't get it. We're either going to do something about climate change or we're not. We all know that it's about tax incentives. So shape up HMG! https://www.glpautogas.info/en/hydrogen-stations-china.html

Literally no posts but one today. Ratio of trades to posts 13:1. Are we all closing our laptops and doing other more useful stuff then? Seriously though, I appreciate your well researched posts and entertaining pokes. The paranoid ones, either about MMs or multiple personalities are a bit weird, but still a good addition to perhaps the best board on LSE. .