Member Info for Takayama

Looks like some shorts have closed. Notification is above 0.5% so they disappear when they go below. Doesn't necessarily mean they've closed completely, but again, all interesting stuff.

Results from the freight side may surprise.

Long day so just now checking out the other news about Lufthansa. Great news! And so now comparing their business class fares with BA business class fares in the same period I posted below. In terms of profitability, BA are charging £16k for direct flights to LAX while Lufthansa £5k (FFT-LAX). So that extra £11k? Where will that go? Ahem. IAG = cash cow sitting on the golden egg that is LHR?

Nothing under £16k rtn to LAX before Nov 24, business on the BA site. Doesn't really drop down to £8k ish until Christmas New Year, and you have to wait until May 2022 for the £4k flights.
Hmmmm. Wonder what that all means? Does it means we're raking it in? Or does it mean something else? Grateful for opinions.
I used Google flights, a fun little tool that gives you a forward gauge of demand for flights before actual results get released.

coolebenji - don't get your hopes up too high I think Friday is of course significant, but remember that it's Q3 results, not Q4. So the good business of Q4 won't be built in. But we will (hopefully) get some indication of what Q4 will look like. That'll be it. With any luck he won't be too optimistic, just realistic (which will be good). The last thing we want is a CEO that promises too much and fails to deliver. I wouldn't anticipate much movement.

Hexam - you're right of course. The other point worth noting is that those that quote out of date broker notes seem to:(a) have a fundamental lack of understanding that broker notes are a 'snapshot in time', (b) fail to understand that brokers simply don't have the profit motive to issue a new note on every piece of news (c) quite possibly understand these two things but are simply acting unethically to deliberately mislead others in the hope to somehow get a few more quid. The latter reasoning is perhaps the worst of all, and smacks of a desperate third world english speaker calling from a call centre somewhere far away to cheat a pensioner out of savings. We're all reasonably well off on this board (why would we have spare money to 'invest' if we weren't) so don't need to do that. It really is the lowest of low behaviour if that is what they're up to, and well, pretty sad that they're like that. Not sure how they can live with themselves.

Just for a bit of fun, with Christmas drawing near, how about a (zero cost) sweepstake? When do we reckon there'll be a decision? Post your guesstimate as a response.

The point is that you need to base your investment on available news. Every day, there is new news added to the equation. Those calling out 'red flag' are generally focussed on a couple of notes produced by brokers in august -early September. There's been a lot happening since then - US markets open, ending of amber lists, clear covid strategy based on vaccines and anti-virals. It's your own call of course on whether you absorb new news or you ignore it. But I'd suggest it's pretty clear which side of the fence is seeking to mislead. Sightwatcher, ultimately, i right. That no one knows for sure how all the news will be absored. Will it translate to a material change in financial strategy or not? Of course, it's impossible to say. But you can make a calculated guess based on the events in the last few weeks.

Istabrraq - you're absolutely right. We should all seek challenge to our views. I'm often the first to challenge or seek challenge. The difficulty is when someone is spamming misleading information, especially when they don't really understand what they're spamming. I'd ascribe the dip to the re-emergence of covid fears. It's going to affect trading but not the investment decision. The RI is a red herring. There may be a RI of course, at any time, and it's a balance of risk as circumstances develop. There may even be a terrorist hijacking or a meteorite hitting the earth. Or a sudden buy out. Or the US is suddenly closed off to flights. Or anything really. But it's misleading to post out of date broker notes claiming that the risks around IAG are the same now as in early September. They're not.

BB- you are wrong. If 'broker consensus' was sell, then there'd be a point to be made. We'd ALL be posting. But the consensus is clearly 'BUY'! Brokers notes have limited utility but 'consensus' has utility because of the intrinsic value in the "wisdom of the crowd". Consensus is 'buy'. I know it's complicated and you probably don't get it. Of course a RI would have significant impact! That's why it would be misleading for the CEO to state it isn't going to happen but be planning it in the background. He would be MISLEADING THE MARKET. That's tantamount to a criminal offence. That's not how blue chips work. There's so much regulation around, you wouldn't believe. And you have fundamentally not understood the purpose of the brokers' assessments. Look, if on Tuesday the weather forecast says it might rain on Friday, and then a high pressure front moves in on the Thursday night and the sky is blue and cloudless on Friday morning, are you going to go out dressed for rain? It's that simple. You don't have to wait for another broker note. They're doing another one for another client. They don't just produce a new broker note on every piece of news! They're a commercial company, not a news service for you!
I'm sorry you got sacked from BA, but move on, my friend. This board isn't for you. The rest of us want to get on with some proper analysis. We get you were unfairly treated. But you're embarrassing yourself bringing your personal beef here.

BB- A few points. (1) Brokers issue notes as part of a business. It isn't a service that they provide to you for free. They may have a client commissioning. Or a range of clients. It is valid for the day that it issued. It's up to you to look at it and decide whether or not the information therein is still valid. It is not 'the word of god'. If you don't believe the CEO, well, that's up to you. But Gallego would REALLY be holding himself up for the sack if he was deliberately misleading the market. (2) Being an analyst that produces notes like that is pretty much the bottom of the pile. All analysts use it as a stepping stone upwards. It isn't as prized as perhaps you may think it is. Perhaps you believe a lowly paid analyst who came to an assessment some time before the CEO made an announcement, rather than the CEO himself, but I guarantee you, you are in a tiny minority. (3) Investment is about looking at the company as a whole. It is different to trading. There are bits of news or information that may affect the INVESTMENT decision and bits of news that affect the TRADING decision. They are different things. (4) I didn't post price targets. What I posted were broker views on the buy or sell position. (5) It's fine. It's not easy. Otherwise we'd all be millionaires. But I'd suggest you may want to pop your own arrogant bubble. You really don't know what you're doing here and I struggle to believe that you have done this for 25 years as you claim. Maybe you are a disgruntled, sacked BA employee who got some shares 25 years ago, but that, I guess is it. Stop making a fool of yourself. Get another job and move on if you got sacked by BA. Stuff happens. You'll feel better if you move on.

Your words are out of date! Keep up! Your analysis is based on out of date information. You've repeated the same point for a number of months based on the same out of date 3rd party analysis. It's all been overtaken! What don't you get? This is the current broker consensus:
What The Brokers Say
Strong Buy 19
Buy 3
Neutral 7
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0
Total 29

BB - your analysis is based on out of date information. You've repeated the same point for a number of months based on the same out of date 3rd party analysis. It's all been overtaken! What don't you get? This is the current broker consensus:
What The Brokers Say
Strong Buy 19
Buy 3
Neutral 7
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0
Total 29

BB - May I ask you the following?
1 - Are you a Trump supporter?
2 - Do you support vaccinations against Covid?
3 - Do you think climate change is affected by human activity?
Thanks buddy.

I'm sorry BB but you post prolifically and it took me 2 minutes to pull apart your argument. Even less to be honest. I'm sure you're a nice guy, but please, just post less. You're just posting nonsense and it's only really one post being repeated all the time. Take a break. Go for a walk. Think of your health. If you want to repeat your post, wait a few days and come back and do it once. Just don't clutter the board with repetition! And discredited repetition at that! Anyway, good luck and take care.

In response to BB's poor analysis. Consensus from Sharecast: What The Brokers Say
Strong Buy 19
Buy 3
Neutral 7
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0
Total 29

Berenberg - their target price is 200p! It doesn't matter that much if they are slightly less optimistic than being euphoric! Really BB! You should know better! You can't blindly follow analysts!! If analysts were right all the time, they'd retire at 25! Remember analysts are just paid for the same thing that a lot of us do on these BBs! They don't have access to IAG accounts! And really, how many people do you think really listen to brokers notes? Brokers say 'buy' and how many people actually buy?! You may as well follow the tips in a Shares magazine!! These guys have a reasonably good idea but three of the bits of analysis that you provided are out of date!!! Come on! You can do better surely? My advice BB is that you've been on the laptop too much getting into fights with strangers. Also, don't follow analysts blindly. The Berenberg one is the only credible one of the lot and even they are saying the target price is 200p! The other three were proved wrong and that's the point of most of the articles: "Analsysts said xxx and then yyy happened"!!! I really am surprised BB! You need a holiday! And somewhere nice and warm where you can relax. Not Sh++++ Iceland when it's miserable weather. What on earth! I am feeling even better with my position if that's all you've got!

Credit Suisse - that was early September if memory serves - see Goodbody comment below.
HSBC - Lobbenburg turned out to be wrong - opening is early November
Goodbody - again, like Credit Suisse, they speculated only for Gallego to say it wasn't going to happen subsequent to the Goodbody note being issued.

BB- it depends what brokers you're talking about? Can you give a link to the broker and the comment and I'll give an answer.

This winter is the last hurdle for IAG. Let's imagine that people are building their shorts because of an anticipated RI. Why would there be a RI? Because IAG is not breaking even and can't continue until it breaks even without an RI. Regardless of what happens this winter with Covid, people will still fly this winter if the government lets them. What's the chances of a travel lockdown? Very very low. As a result, what's the chance of break-even coming soon? Very high. What do hedge fund shorters watch? They watch what other shorters are doing as well as global geopolitics and of course what the company is doing. Geo politics are in IAG's favour - the world isn't going to revert to travel lockdown. (Have you seen the isolation camps for travellers that China has built!!!). The company is in fit shape - good management, lean excellent staff, better planes and so on. And the shorters? Shorting is a bit like a house of cards. One falls and so the others fall too. They don't want to be the last ones out. Sure, the shorting is affecting the SP. But so what? Are you trading on the day (ok, some are) or do you have an investment position? I can't see why some think IAG will fold, or why it won't break even in the near future negating the need for a RI completely. I don't see what the shorters see or perhaps they fail to see what I see? I wished I had some spare cash. There are a lot of value shares out here so I don't. It's all invested! But IAG would certainly be one where I'd be investing as the company is in more profitable shape than ever sitting on the golden egg that is the UK. It won't fold, chances of an RI are so slim, and COVID in winter 2021 (antivirals, vaccine). is a completely different thing to Covid in winter 2020.
So casio kid, I know you will hold firm and good luck buddy!

Others, good luck also, and let's try to make clear points rather than hurl dumb insults at each other. I have to admit to being on some boards where the insults are somehow funny or clever, but they're not on this board. You're otherwise smart people, and we're all strangers. This isn't Facebook guys! C'mon! Be better!