Member Info for Takayama

It's from an article in Feb '21, one that was obviously badly written. Not sure if this link will work for you but it may. It would be exciting to know that the award was in three days time or so, but it isn't this article pointing to anything happening.
:https://www-afrigatenews-net.translate.goog/article/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AD-%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%AE%D9%8A%D8%B5-%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%BA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AC%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B3/?_x_tr_sl=ar&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

I was worried I had missed the boat, but then saw an opportunity to buy a small number at 320p. I have to say, the SP looks ridiculous now. But perhaps I'm also hoping that it continues to look ridiculous at least in the short term? If one of my other investments pays off, I can sell there and buy some super cheap shares here for another decent ride up. So yes, this share price movement doesn't matter to me. It's retail. It's a really, really good company with fantastic growth prospects. I'm not that interested in trading. It's investment that pays off in the end for me. Good luck all and remember that SP often doesn't reflect the value of the company.

Fatman 83 - I believe Lorne's mum is in Real Estate. Thus she may be selling here needing to close a deal elsewhere now that her son has nothing to do with the company. She may have had the inside story, but had a better real estate deal to sort out. It's impossible to say.
Quint - a lot of what you say makes sense, but don't get paranoid buddy. It was an observation. Que sera, sera. People may hold or sell, or accumulate more post LEAP. It's impossible to predict at this stage. Like I say to others, do what you think will be right. It'll be significantly de-risked at that point, so more attractive to others. That's my view.

There's an interesting article in last week's economist about why oil would be doing okay. Essentially returns on oil are still close to 10%. Renewables around 5%. Points to a fiscal solution for the mess we're in.

Hey doggo. What do you reckon EMMAC should have gone for and how do you get to your valuation? I'm just interested.
Personally, I see LEAP not going for more than £70m. With our stake at around 40%, that takes us to pretty close the £50m company Ed suggested we were.

If "they will wait for the Sami statement before making a decision", then presumably it is in Sami interest to procrastinate as long as possible? Summer recess starts mid June. That's a mere four-five months away. And Swedish elections in September? What if the greens get back in?

Midas - I'd be interested in hearing where you'd be putting that nice £150k post LEAP! Good luck buddy! (sincerely meant rather than sarcastically btw).

LEAP will provide the last jump for SEED? Possibly - or then again, SEED could be amazingly well positioned to capitalise on the imminent roll out of the increase for the products in which it is invested. Key date in Germany is Oct 2022, and then once Germany makes recreational cannabis legal, watch what happens in the rest of the EU. One key in all of this is IP - an area that Ed understands very well, but there are also many other transferables to consider (distribution network?). This is a great (recent) article illustrating where exactly we are at the moment. Apologies for repeating if you've already read it:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/world/europe/germany-legalize-recreational-marijuana.html

1010 - Ed mentioned in an interview that there'll be something between March and June this year - IPO or M&A I believe.
The Jan 2017 RNS is appalling! It confirms nothing was definite about timelines "The Company can give no guarantee that an IPO will be completed or the valuation at which such IPO will occur.". Not even RNS worthy! Currently we know as a fact that Ed joined LEAP as a NED to advise on the IPO in Nov 2020. "To get the best outcome for SEED shareholders". 2017-2022? Chalk and cheese as far as I can see. 2022 IPO or M&A definite as far as I can se. Ok, there was an RNS in 2017, but very very different to where we are now with the IPO. Anyway, thanks for the clarification of points. It makes me look at my position, and in this case made me even more certain of my investment here. Always appreciate the challenge.

Midas - Sure I don't doubt that. It's great trading in and out. But the point remains, it's a completely different company. You can't compare a 2016 company with a NAV of £10M and a SP of 15p (£6m cash according to the annual report which I looked up on the strength of Bwick's post - and no, they weren't trying to IPO LEAP), focussed on investing in 'disruptive technology' (ahem) with a completely different board, with today's business. The fact that you can look at a graph and see it go up and down at various points means nothing over that period of time with that amount of fundamental change. This is the curse of business, that there will be investors (like you I am afraid) that carry baggage and don't move on from the mistakes of the past (disruptive technology is an all inclusive term meaning 'anything new that sounds different without any particular strategy or expertise on our part) so can't get that it will go beyond 15p. That's a dreadful strategy and no wonder it didn't go anywhere. Today's company, board and expertise within the company is entirely focussed on one massive area at a fantastic point in that industry's growth with relevant people on board. It's a completely different company with an actual strategy. People will get that at some point - but it will be at the point that you have moved on my friend, the point where the SP breaks through that 15p barrier and you feel it is 'too expensive' to buy back in, based on what the company was when it bought Factom, the diabetic boot company et al in the first place. Ed's really got his work cut out to rebrand this vehicle. But it will move on. It's inevitable. And in a way, part of that old strategy will have paid off in providing a massive cash pot for SEED to reinvest in this new industry.

MIDAS - 5 years back it was a completely different company. Impossible to compare that company to the current one.

Barwickman - okay, I get you. Get a good deal for LEAP. If we don't then we're scre++d. Yep, you're right. I agree. I'm feeling pretty confident we will. Consensus on this board seems to be around £20M at least. And at at the same time, when we do, I'm not 'leaping out' of this investment (unlike others). Yeah, Tim Vine, eat your socks buddy. Get a good deal for LEAP, then we're in a fantastic place for the future. Onwards and upwards.

barwickman - thanks for your response. But it sounds like we are agreeing? - LEAP gets sold, SEED uses the money. The only thing you seem to be saying is that if LEAP doesn't get sold then that will be negative as SEED won't have any money to invest? Ok - I agree with you. The point I was making is that the IPO of LEAP does not signal a 'sell' signal for me in SEED. There is a 'fundamental' in SEED in that it is well placed to have first mover advantage in what everyone seems to agree (including Pfizer) to be a market ready to explode? So what are we disagreeing on again?

I have to admit to wondering why some are claiming it is all about LEAP. I get the whole thing about being a cynical LT holder who has got burnt, but experience has taught me re-evaluation of your own views brings the big profit. Come 2023 or 2024, the cannabis sector is going to be much larger than now. This will be a multi-bagger. 100% profit is chump change. It really isn't all about LEAP. Sell at 14p and you're a sucker. The thing about LEAP is it will put major money in SEEDs coffers. And SEED will use it, with the expertise it has, to invest cleverly in this market. You want managed exposure to the cannabis market? I can't see a better way than being here in SEED.

I'm guessing the ordinary punter doesn't have a spare £50k of shares to dump in one go. And even if they did, they'd probably find a better way of disposing of them than doing it all in one go. It's inevitable that stuff like this will happen. The point is to look at the fundamentals. Admittedly I'd benefit from listening to my own advice. I had quite a large holding in another company that I held for many years, only to sell in frustration that there was no end in sight. And then six months later, it quadruples. Duh! Anyway, I'm sure we're going to get a good return here. They key is to switch off the laptop a bit. But again, I can't do that either.

Mat78 - Let's be patient. There are plenty of people who may not know where to look for the answer. Perhaps they are new. We can do a service to all by simply answering their questions. It's fine. I hope you have investment history elsewhere. If so, you will know what it's like identifying a share you think is a good investment, you have a couple of key questions and there is a bb with people who seem to know the company. Why not ask them? It's the nature of the world today. Everything is easily accessible. You don't have to be an expert to invest. There are always experts on hand who are likely to have the answer.

taskmaster - great comments indeed. I wouldn't expect anything less from readers of Britain's biggest sailing paper.

There seems to be quite a lot of activity in CBD stocks in the past few days. KNB, CBX, MGC. Return of sentiment perhaps?

Ok if I jump in? I'd suggest a few things:
a - AIM is a good place to make a reputation for yourself. You're right. Some CEOs egg up their pudding. But they soon get found out and a short thrill ride ends up in disappointment for all. Limited ambition, limited foresight. No real knowledge of Ed so far as, excuse the patronising tone (not meant that way), he's still 'young'.
b - Is it £50M MCAP or £50M NAV? I think the latter. Based on today's price, that still suggests a lot of room for growth.
c - Current SP reflects Rhonda's somewhat irresponsible method of disposing of her holding. It doesn't reflect any LT issue with the SP.
d - Under egging is consistently a better tactic. A cautious CEO pays off in spades. If Ed is reading this, he'll know that much. Never, ever over-promise. You won't be forgiven. For ever.
e - The cannabis market has been depressed since the 'dot-com' effect of the KNB/CBX/MGC IPOs last year. That's another reason for the unusual effect on our SP. We'll get over that.
What does this all mean? As MAT78 says, 'Que Sera sera'. The SP will go where it will. There isn't much we can do. But we know we have good assets which will pay off in the short term. We know we are in an amazing position in a market poised for explosive growth - which is good for the medium term. So much rides on Ed's performance as CEO. Personally, I look for other positions for some of my portfolio but keep coming back here.

With LEAP at £20M, NAV is roughly £36Mill. Current valuation at this SP is £17 Million. Please feel free to pick the following apart. Taken from Mar 21 financials except for LEAP and Juvenescence (see my last post), and Portage - the latter based on the current low SP, so half of the Mar 21 valuation. It still feels there is a lot of room for movement upwards!

South West Brands - £252k
CiiTech - £175k
LGP - £831k
Eurox - £3M
Yooma - £3.2M
LEAP - £20M
Portage - £700k
Northern Leaf - £600k
Inveniam - £250k
Juvenscence - £7M
Vemo £214k