Member Info for Takayama

BB- Mate! Take a break from this board please! You are way too emotionally involved with a load of strangers! It really isn't doing you any good! I'm sure you've got some interesting hobbies! If you're not involved with IAG, then do something else! Why are you wasting your life on chat boards! Please! Have a beer. Go for a walk. Do something else !

casio-kid. Good luck.

BB - I guess you're not aware of the tie up between BA/IAG and Velocys then? Or any of the other green initiatives BA/IAG are involved in?

If the question is about the management of covid (it seems to be), then as far as the UK is concerned, it's very unlikely we're going back to banned flights. Another lockdown would be politically very difficult. HMG is looking to anti virals and an advanced vaccine programme as ways to keep the death rate "manageable". That means, to a rate that the NHS is able to cope with. There are plenty of other countries outside of Italy which gladly accept UK flights, so less to Italy means more to Portugal. Traders can push this all over the place, but for investors this is an excellent point to accumulate. UK consumers are perhaps one of the best heeled in the world as far as international travel is concerned. We like our holidays. "Buy when others sell".

There'll be other (perhaps more established). CBD companies listing next year on LSE, for example LGP. That'll bring fizz to the party once again. Watch out for it.

I'm guessing IAG are likely still losing money - at least today they are. What are the guesses about when IAG start to break even again? End October? Mid November? End November? End December? End March 2022? Just a bit of fun. It's always interesting swapping notes on our assessments. Also, will the break even date match up with the closing of the shorts? Or will the shorting continue subsequently?

That's the big seller then? From 8. 36% (17 odd million shares) to less than 3% (is that the notifiable level)? Wow! That's a massive number to be absorbed by the market. I bet it was because of the cannabis focus - the principle rather than the profitability of the company drove the disposal.

Lord Chaos - yep, especially Covid numbers. Also, Citadel increased their short yesterday which of course will have an effect on day trading. Q3 out soon, with passenger numbers. And the target I seem to recall was 75% capacity. Let's see what happens. Essentially, either the whole planet folds with Covid and that's the end of all business or we mitigate as much as we can, until mitigations can't cope any longer. My money is on the latter - and that we get through the winter. 7 day death rate average is slowly increasing from 124. There's an increasing amount of news around Covid. So it'll be about cash flow and for the moment, it seems to still be looking positive as people make their own decision about the risk of dying from Covid given the anti-virals and vaccines available. Commuter trains are getting back to normal levels of 'packedness'. We shall see. I'm still feeling that it's a good idea to go overseas despite the risk of Covid. I'm sure others are. So still a good bet I'd say.

The thing about IAG is that it’s a pretty good day trading share. Let’s face it. Lots of volatility. Yes, the only way is up. But if I was a day trader, what better fun than to talk this down to get a few suckers to sell to push the price down, jump in at the bottom and sell when the bounce inevitably comes… . . There’s a lot of it about. You’d need to be pretty unethical to do that, but hey. Let’s face it. Some people simply can’t get richer without being unethical… . .

Bb- I think you’ll find the system you describe is used heavily by EZJ for their £10 flights. Did you get burnt? Have a go at booking LAX yourself. Wait until, say, this Friday to book the same flight, business . If you succeed in getting a ticket, I’ll buy you a half lager shandy in LA. How about it?

Just tried to book a business class flight LHR to LAX for December 5. 3 Business seats left out of 58 out and 5 on the way back that Saturday. It's around £8k return. If you want to fly business anywhere, you'd better hurry.

I’m guessing we’ll see a lot of trading above 185. Maybe 190?

BB- there have been too many significant events for me to bother posting them here. You know what they are. To require someone to list them for you is disingenuous of you. Like I’ve said - unethical of you. Try going to the pub and enjoying a few beers. Get a life. You won’t be able to keep back the tide. You’re just being an a””e.

Bb - although you aren’t posting untruths, you are misleading in your posts. Those broker calls were made before significant events. You are misleading the poor and uninitiated. It is, somewhat, unethical of you to do so.

I have to admit that the idea of talking this SP down is indeed attractive. If only it gets back down to 5p or so. A wonderful buying opportunity and some easy money to be had. The weird thing is that the NAV is actually perhaps more intrinsically stable here than in a company that actually produces something given the spread of investments, but the sp goes all over the place. So as sure as eggs is eggs, the SP, barring any disaster, is likely to restabilise around the NAV. The disaster would be investing in something that goes disastrously wrong. But until we get the Leap money, there isn’t that much that can go wrong? Right?

I imagine that it must be a real pain if you are a CEO and every day shareholders are questioning your decisions and blaming any drop in SP on you. Who would have thought being a listed company was such a pain in the backside? If you've got a sector which you believe will grow like crazy, then why not club together with some mates and set up an investment fund, not inviting any 'shareholders' on board. It's a lot easier and you'll get crazy returns. And you can take risks. And you don't have anyone but yourselves to answer to. I'd suggest that Ed setting up that alternative fund demonstrates his own faith in his own decisions. And his understanding that the sector is going to blow. (Both good news for SEED shareholders). And provides him with freedom to invest when he wants and how much he wants. Why would he prefer to invest in SEED with all the restrictions that that imposes? Let's face it, SEED is essentially going to be a cannabis investment fund. LEAP and Juvenescence etc are part of the old story now, and their value is in providing money for a fresh cannabis investment. There'll be another point in time where cannabis becomes a hot sector, and that I think, is where this will 'blow'. Not with the sale of LEAP or any others. I don't blame people for feeling shafted if they invested 5 years ago. Looking at the company history, I'd agree it was a dog then up to a year or two ago. It's hard to reinvent yourself, but SEED has reinvented itself. The market just has to start believing that's the case. So calm down chaps and take a valium.

Re: Fitch - You need to read the whole report and understand why they say 'negative'. The point of Fitch is that it isn't based on future expectations but on the balance sheet today. Of course the balance sheet hasn't changed. But expectations have and market conditions have. The current Fitch rating is based on the balance sheet up to now rather than an assessment of what the future holds. They simply can't change their assessment from negative because that's not how they work!! Regardless of what the future holds!!

Royga - not sure what "information is highlighted deliberately in the media" - but yes, you're right, they'll need to close at a loss. A key rule of thumb is you're out to minimise losses rather than maximise profit. So I can't see why they're not doing that. They're not amateurs???? It's odd, but when they do eventually close, there'll be another leap up in SP. It's quite a large short.

Canada John - No, these sells that we see today are retail - profit takers or whatever. It'll always happen. The market isn't spooked. Citadel reduced their short position by a few tens of thousands last week, but haven't done anything since. I'm not worried about these sells we are seeing today (and yesterday etc) as coolebenji says, 'there is real support for the market to recover all round'. The trend will remain up for a few days/weeks yet as far as I can see.

I'm pretty confident I understand the air passenger market. I'm pretty confident I understand UK government policy, foreign government policy, and known short-medium term extraneous strategic risks ( essentially covid) related to the market. All point to we're going back to 2018/19 in terms of air travel. So I'd be fascinated to really understand why Citadel are betting around £150m on the IAG SP crashing? I really can't see it at this stage. It may happen (anything can happen), but surely the calculated risk of it happening is too high and it is far more likely we're heading back towards normality? Surely it would make more sense to close the shorts at least for the moment and then re-open them when s""" hits the fan? They're agile after all? Any views?