Member Info for Takayama

Thanks guys

sector rather than CBX specific, but nevertheless:
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/full?dockey=1323-14719443-22A16BG07DMIOAU5HCMGOJ52S1

Very informative board. My favourite board in fact. Thanks guys. Ed McDermott on the board of Peridot? Where can I find the news on t'internet? Grateful for a link.
I'm really frustrated here. Especially as other companies I'm watching but not invested in have either leapt (pardon the pun) or are very cheap and worth jumping into. I don't want to sell my holding here though. Early 2022 isn't far away and a lot of good stuff can happen before. FOMO.

R1bobUK - They won't be trading after hours. They may be booking trades but that's completely different. There seem to be some large sells that they still haven't booked. After all, something must have pushed the price down and it isn't the £500 trades. Anyway, good luck everyone. Director buys and pre-launch of a product always stirs up interest as people anticipate other people's anticipation and so there's an upward trend. I hope you all do well. The CBD product will explode, but it's all about timing. Are we there yet?

Strong woman - you're opening yourself up to all manner of pus take by talking about your falling poos. If you clench a little you may find that you're able to control when exactly they fall. From your name, it sounds like you should be able to do that.

It's nice of you to invite us to score points WITH you Blue, but I'm not sure anyone would trust you enough to be on your team. Far better for us to score points OFF you. We've succeeded so far. And it's pretty easy. And fun. Keep posting please. It provides entertainment for the rest of us, if little else.

Pocko - I may sell £4000 worth of shares and watch the SP crash by 20% as a result of my "massive sell off"!

Hey Suzy2! Hahhahaha! Good for you! Of course, you need to access the underground resource somehow, don’t you?! Not much good if the people on top don’t give you access! Anyway, my point is about the political landscape (its controversial because the people on top of the resource don’t want to allow access etc etc etc). It’s a political decision, not a legal one. I can see you missed the point somewhat… . Never mind. Doesn’t matter.

Hey Suzy2! Hate to break it to you, but the PM actually IS a politician. As for mines, you're likely to get something a lot less controversial first, like a nice cobalt mine far away from Sami land, first. So yes, it's still a waiting game. And pretty likely at least until September 2022. Lofven has no incentive to risk anything before an election. Good luck anyway. Hope your garden is doing well.

There will be a rise, and a sustainable one at that, but not on the basis of a politician saying there'll be 'more mines'. Elections in September 2022, right? Nothing will happen before then I'd venture.

Guessworx - I'd say 350p is an easy possibility. 30/31 July 2022 provides Q2 stats and half yearly results. Expectations for me is that they'll easily outshine 2021 and 2020 equivalents. Valuation at that point is tricky, of course. Key questions are two:
1 - Will the economies from restructuring outweigh the dilution? Perhaps not, but if the economies are anywhere near to balancing the dilution, then of course we're back to pre-2019 area of valuation. Which is far above 350p per share.
2 - Rebound of demand? My money is that demand end of Q2 2022 will be close to Q2 2019 demand. Big banks in London are espousing home working at the moment, but word on the street is that the policy isn't sustainable long term. Impact is better in person. We'll see which side wins that one.
Happy to hear other povs.

I spoke to a friend who is a lawyer in a corporate travel firm. Travel to Europe - estimated currently at 80% capacity. The big one is North America. They're expecting an "explosion" in demand. It's going to be nuts!
There are four things to consider -
Customer demand is the fourth. The above addresses that to an extent.
Government policy is the third. Biden announcing the US would be open in November addressed that. Ultimately government can't stand in the way of commercial reality.
Potential profitability of the company is the second. IAG sorted that out over lockdown by cutting, reorganising and restructuring. They are more (potentially) profitable than ever.
Risk of another lockdown is the first. I'm betting that infections will rise, deaths will rise, but also much better now is our ability to manage illness - and ability to vaccinate - so whilst deaths will rise, it won't be as astronomical as in the past. Another lockdown will be almost politically impossible I'd venture. So ability to fly will continue to increase.

All in all, I'd 100% expect IAG to reach 200p sometime before Christmas, 60% expect IAG to reach 250p before Christmas, and 60% expect it to hit 325p at some time before next June. Not a bad return for six months, with balance of risk on my side virtually all the way. I can't really see much downside from here. GLA, whatever you are betting. It's always nice to see someone doing well.

It's time to get a new broker. Rather admire the person who managed to get £10k pre hours this morning!

I find Big Blue a little pompous. He obviously has lots of spare time that he spends alone so has quite a conceited view of himself as he doesn’t have anyone to bring him back down to earth. His posts aren’t useful either.

Yep. It feels like all the bad news is now out of the way. We'll see a steady rise towards 300p.
1 - IAG used the period to make painful cuts and restructure enormously.
2 - Not only have we got rid of the colour coding for travel for the most part,
3 - but US now opened up also.
4 - And so windfall profits in the short term as those frustrated travellers compete for the limited capacity.

Let’s face it. It was inevitable wasn’t it…. ?

lbjj seems to be the most popular poster on this board. EricDraven and Suzy2 are the most prolific.
Any views on what that means? Wisdom of the Crowds (look it up if you don't know what that is)?

US airline stock rally: It's about the commercial exemption list in the US - which leads to greater loosening and then eventuality the triumph of commercial reality. The UK is very likely to be close behind. It always is. The people selling IAG don't seem to be aware of this - or are waiting for the change in legislation. Either way, you may get a better profit waiting for when the dip ends, but only marginally so. Windfall profits on the way as pent up demand finally gets the chance to travel (and so happy to pay premium prices). EasyJet RI had an effect on sentiment, but that's it. There isn't going to be an IAG RI. We all know it. There's enough to ride this out now. Blindly not punting on the end being in sight means you risk losing out on profiting from the dip ("Buy on dips"). I'm now on a paper loss, and frustrated I called the bottom too early, but who cares? I'll profit from the inevitable spike. Others won't. It's going to change rapidly methinks. And then settle back into a gentle rise. When the end (of restrictions) comes, that'll be it. No turning back. GLA. And if you're able to gamble on this going sub 140p, I tip my hat to you.

I can empathise with your view, but a more appropriate word may be ‘frustrating’ rather than mess. IAG is stronger and more profitable than pre covid. The only thing it lacks are flights! It’s got enough cash to weather another four years. The US has already a ‘commercial exemption’ process for people flying to allow them to home isolate. The UK isn’t far behind. It’s only a matter of time. One thing for sure is governments don’t want to stand in the way of commercial reality. So you may not be getting your profit now. But I’d guess 12 months from now, those that sell to get their 10% profit will be kicking themselves for having sold too early. Sit back and wait now. There will be plenty of people jumping on board before long.

ODONNELL - I'd agree with you about news. No leaks. The volumes that have pushed it up are tiny to be honest. But what I see this as saying is that when there IS news, and people buy on that news, then we're going to see a very large re-rate up. I'm somewhat frustrated having dropped out of some prize shares elsewhere to invest more here (urgh - and IAG for my sins) and not see as great a gains as I have just missed out on with the others, but as long as I can control my own impatience and not sell on the first 10% gain, then I'm sure my current portofolio will outperform my previous - eventually. But when? It's impossible to say, isn't it. At least in the next 12 months..... .