Member Info for Takayama

There'll be a bounce but not yet. Just watch this space. Sorry to those that have lost. It's tough out there. cbronson posts some good insights I must say!

The half a million sell this am was fascinating! Someone has either just had a kitchen installed and is desperate to pay their builders, or knows something, or more likely just wanted to carry less risk! But they must have taken a big loss! Not sure that loss was worth the derisk!

An interesting few days of posting. On whether this board affects the SP I'd offer that posts here have some effect on SP. I've trawled boards in the past and made a lucky few investment on positive sentiment I've gleaned from reading boards.
People DO buy and sell on the back of sentiment gleaned from strangers on the internet. And the SP moves correspondingly. AIM thus follows sentiment to a large extent. This board is hugely negative. I'm not sure it's justified a lot of / most of the time. Sure, the LEAP valuation was off and sure there is a delay in sale. But the fundamentals of the SEED haven't changed to the extent that the SP has changed. I know I'm in the minority, perhaps because I don't post so much, but like Bronson (and perhaps others), I'm not expecting this to go bust with zero return for shareholders. The SP of the liquid investments is frustrating. But I've seen private buy outs elsewhere where the purchase price is way above the SP. That's the problem of following sentiment downwards for you in a nutshell. Crack on being unreasonably negative if you want to (perhaps to move the SP down to your own entry point), it won't change the long run return by much if at all as far as I can see. GLA

After reading many posts here, I had to reread the RNS. I can see why there is disappointment - we're not going to get anywhere near £200 million by end of 2022! But a lot of what people are saying is wrong. And this RNS isn't bad. The reason for this RNS is two fold as far as I can see, and both reasonably sensible. First, to manage expectations into a realistic position about the LEAP valuation (lots of posts speculating about that on this board), and second to say that things have changed. There is a risk that this a case of Ed playing with our money for mates' rates, but my view is this is less likely than the face value of this RNS. I'm not that bothered about the lack of a 'liquidity event' around LEAP this year. In a way, I'd rather it didn't happen as the share price would plummet once LTH's cash in. In a way, I'd rather Ed didn't tell us about any disposals until after they happened. I'd rather he didn't sell in panic to appease short term shareholders quest for quick profits. I'd rather he holds on to good investments and the SP grows in the way that Berkshire Hathaway has grown. Therein lies real value.

that there is a notable absence of posts today coupled with what could be interpreted as some strategic buying at 3.8. Does that mean that the bottom has been reached? Does the absence of ****ging off mean that those posters have had a change of heart and have decided to buy now - so further downward movement is not in their interest?

I wonder if I am also OD - but we're not. I can see a persistent seller, getting rid of slices of around £3k at a time. Everyone else is just watching at the moment to see when this stops. We're insulated from incompetency to a certain extent as SEED doesn't rely on the ability of one CEO to direct the company to prosperous waters. The porttfolio of CEOs we have spreads that risk - and mitigates it to an extent, and as such, the failure of one won't bring the demise of the company. The current drop is ALL retail as far as I can see. When the rebound comes, it's likely to be a very healthy rebound. I'm quite tempted to put all of my eggs in one basket, I have to admit. Just watching, as everyone else is, when these little sell trades cease.

barwickman - I generally agree, though I'd really doubt that LEAP would be sold at less than a 'good offer'. My reading of 'market conditions' is the situation in Ukraine. With such a high proportion of staff based in Ukraine, the war could only create uncertainty for LEAP. That was way beyond Ed's reach! And of course wouldn't be a good time to sell LEAP. The situation has now stabilised. Other companies (eg Metro Bank) are also actively moving Ukraine staff in more stable areas, so those conditions will right themselves (for the long term), pending a resolution. We're heading for an IPO, so it's only the wider macro circumstances that will affect 'sentiment' that will influence whether we get a premium or not. I have to say that the recent bull on US stocks bodes well for us (though I am an optimist), so all in all, it should be fine. Trump is heading back for another presidency so again, that is likely to have a positive effect on the money grabbing markets. I've no real idea about valuation of LEAP but appreciate barwickman going low to avoid disappointment. And of course, we have sentiment in October 2022 to observe! GLA

barwickman - yes, it does look less and less, but the end point of course is zero! That's pretty unlikely with a NAV of 10p! And as we know, after every drop, there's a rise back up to a more normal level. I guess that with OD and Matador both selling all their holdings, they will be ready to jump back in when the bottom is reached. So what's your guess on the bottom?

Can’t wait for the day to return when we’ll be kicking ourselves that we missed this buy opportunity! Btw, you can buy but the MMS are just as nervous, not wanting to leave a loose leash which may result in them getting caught out! You need to call and negotiate a price. They can see the current oversell too I suspect! Normal times, this would have been easily traded. Easy way to squeeze the price down! What price are you getting back in guys? 3.7? 3.5? 3.2?

This could go down to 3p, but so what? The NAV is closer to 10p, so all 3p will do is make the subsequent bump up even more dramatic (especially when LEAP gets liquidised). Furthermore, NAV is only 10p (and not more) because of the ridiculous goings on around the LGP SP - and the (understandable to me at least) LEAP sale! This is a screaming buy, I'd say. Not only because I'm getting a new kitchen done and need a bit of cash soon (well, within the next 24 months), but also because it is a dumb, dumb price driven down by traders waiting on the wings expecting to see lower prices to buy back in and then watch who will flinch first. There is nothing fundamentally different with the company apart from it is in a better place (oh, the irony!) than a couple of years ago. CBD is less fashionable at the moment as an investment, but that's it. It'll come back in fashion like there's no tomorrow. Especially at this sort of valuation.

I doubt there is anything concrete behind the increases in SP of CBD sector stocks aside from pure sentiment. It's funny how these things work. I recall the KNB and CBX rises likewise - sentiment that went pffffh in a puff of smoke when it was realised the profit horizon was more than three weeks away!. That's not to say that there isn't any basis for positive sentiment. I, like many others, are waiting for October and Germany's expected move to legalise cannabis. And the subsequent 'domino effect' of that piece of legislation.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/01/germanys-move-to-legalise-cannabis-expected-to-create-domino-effect

Nice of you to let us know. I would like to think that you were smart and saw your withdrawal coming, in which case, you will have sold off a degree of your investment in the last few weeks. If your holding was proportionate to the number of posts you made, then that could account for a proportion of the drop in price (on somewhat thin volumes), in which case, rationalisation of the drop appears. It's always been fun having you around. GLA.

Thanks guys for all your replies. I feel they underlie what looks like a sound investment to me. On the risks of there being a peace deal, pushing gas prices down in the short term, I'd say that is negligible, and in any case, Russia has marked itself out as an unreliable supplier and so is destined to be frozen out of the markets for anything but short term contracts. If that's the fill of risks as identified by you guys, then I'm content. I'm looking forward to big news on a farmout for Anchois 2. No reason, but only that it would make sense as it would provide bandwidth for other projects and provide instant value - easing the funding line for those other projects. Chariot isn't a one trick pony to me.

Hi all. New investor in this one, though I've watched Chariot for a few years. A few questions if I may? (1) Anchois-2 is going to be solely developed by Chariot, no farm outs, right? Or is there going to be a collaboration with a major? (2) Where is the next big news expected to be?
I know the information is all out there, but I'm a little lazy and also trying to get an indicator on you guys' sentiment towards this. Many thanks in advance.

Longland : ‘ another one of ed’s timelines’ - It's notoriously difficult to predict when things are going to happen. When you're a CEO, you're being pressured from all angles to provide answers. Look at the flak some AIM CEOs get for not issuing more RNS's even when there isn't any news! Some CEOs play this to their advantage to inflate the SP by giving news that isn't entirely there, but the vast majority find it a complete pain. I, personally, won't be too bothered if the Q2 timeline is breached. It doesn't mean Ed was lying or that he was 'wrong'. It just means his guess missed out 'factor x'. in its calculation. The point is that he's working towards that liquidity event and it will take the time it takes. Those hungry to minimise the amount of time they invest in any one company will be pressing for a date, but in reality, it makes little difference if it is end of Q2 or end of Q4 - as long as the delay is explained by factors outside the team's control.

I'd suggest this isn't a true 'pump and dump' scenario. Genuine pump and dump is if there is no value in the share. Here, there is. I too, was thinking about selling at 7p, but I assessed there was a really good chance that the liquidity event would happen just as I sold, so I didn't. It's so, so risky selling at this point. Those that did buy into the rise will still bag a bargain I believe. The rise this time was on the back of the RNS compounded by a view that this would be the last hurdle crossed before the liquidity event. I believed it myself, even though I don't follow Quint, nor Doggo. This is such a bad time to sell I think for anyone looking to get a decent return. This remains the best time to buy as we are approaching the end of Q2.

Midas - I think it was the Mirror wasn't it? 'City Slickers'. Ahem.

Hi John389. I can see you're new here. The first thing is to look at the SEED website, and check the RNSs, especially the annual reports and so on. There are clues inside there as to the intentions of the board. Secondly, look at the interviews on Proactive. Again, it is clearly stated there (by end of Q2 2020 I recall). There were some issues that needed to be resolved prior to a sale, notably the issue of a licence for Leap in the UK. That was granted a few days ago, and that led to the rise, now at 50% from that pre-RNS price. There may be some unresolved issues - so of course we haven't got the RNS announcing sale/IPO just yet, and they need to work through these. So don't take it as given that it will happen by end of Q2. Sometimes there are unplanned issues that arise. But it is pretty clear, it is a proect being worked on with a deadline of end of Q2. As with all of these things, profit is the reward for taking risk. But from where I'm sitting, this is relative to many other things, a very safe bet, gvien all that has happened. Don't take that as investment advice btw!

My remortgage is coming through in the next few days and I was going to pile in some £xxxxx into this to bring my average down. Easy money. Slowly eroding my profit margin. Still I expect it will hit pretty close to 20p. So anything under that remains easy money - on the basis of a MCAP of at least £50million. Shame we missed out on MOON, otherwise we'd already be at £300 Million!

Suzy - I have to admit I find your approach to people who don't 'support your investment' on this bulletin board a bit odd. We're all quite equal here, with different points of view. I don't know why you're so aggressive to people with different pov. This board makes zero difference to the share price. The SP doesn't go down because someone presents a different pov. That's not how share markets work. I think you are doing yourself a disservice by your attitude. I'm sure you're a better person than you come across on this board. I hope you're a better person in real life for your own sake.