Member Info for Takayama

Akafatman- I agree. It’s really really hard to see why the company would go for less than 5p (or more). I’m back on my ‘firm bet’ territory, looking at the assets we have, with the highest probability trajectory of the SP being upwards. With the disposal of LEAP, an ocean of similarly cheap assets out there, for us to buy, the only way is up as far as I can see at this moment.

In a sea of red, SEED stands out as holding its course this week, against the odds. I ducked out of CHAR to increase my stake here. Speculative bet but glad I did. GLA, even Longlad (hope you get your money back at some point).

With the markets down across the board, this does provide decent buying opportunities as Ed has pointed out. We may not get £12M for LEAP but then again, our possible purchase may be 50% cheaper too.
What would you (if you were CEO) buy with the expected £6M from LEAP? 0.12% of IAG? Or summink else?

I'd add that I learnt not to take CEOs word for SP value in the school of hard knocks. You should do yourself a favour too and understand that Ed isn't unique in that aspect, sooner rather than later. They're ordinary guys with ordinary weaknesses (ego - look at me and how brilliant my company is; lack of awareness - I haven't thought through the impact of what I'm saying; inability to take responsibility - oh those whining shareholders! When will they stop; and so on. They aren't God. Trust yourself first and no one else. Look at the fundamentals. And with SEED, the thing is that despite Ed being a bit of an idiot in what he's said, the fundamentals look okay to me and so I believe they will pay off.

AkaFatMan - I apologise unreservedly. You are right. It was rude of me to label shareholders 'a bit idiotic' if they believed a CEO who claims his company is worth £X. But the point remains. It will always lead to disappointment. And when they give dates, they are indicative (unless there is something set in stone, via, say an existing written contract). It's bad practice of CEOs to speculate this way as (1) they may have their VIEW of the value of the company but this is not the MARKET's view and it is the market's view that prevails and (2) things change - so indicative timelines do not take into account unanticipated hazard. If you've ever had builder's who say they will finish the job in X days you will know what I mean. You notice that Noel Quinn doesn't get involved with what the SP of HSBC should be, nor do you hear him giving dates about HSBC corporate action until it actually happens or is certain to happen. There is no deliberate misleading, and really I should say that Ed is a bit of an idiot for even voicing an opinion on those matters (presumably trying to appease shareholders) than keeping schtum. He really should know better. And he doesn't gain any respect for that unprofessional behaviour, as innocent as it may be.

I'm sure we've misunderstood each other Midas 3316! By inside, I mean 'inside the circle of knowledge'. Thus, it doesn't matter if you are only attending meetings for ten weeks over the year or one (so I don't mean 'inside the building'). If you are on the board, you will be privy to information and conversations that ordinary punters (like you) won't have. All the time. So he can be accused of using that information to his advantage if he traded SEED shares. Of course, that may just be a convenient excuse, so ultimately it's a choice of whether you believe him or not. And then it would be interesting to hear what marks him up as a liar? Of course, speculating about your company is not at all unusual in AIM. I recall the CEO of KNB saying the SP should be 60p just after the IPO! That doesn't make him a liar. It makes investors who take that as the word of God a bit idiotic though. It's a characteristic of AIM (admittedly a bad one) when Directors get involved with petty PI chat. On the point of the valuation, well it is only as valuable as those interested say it is - not what the owner of the asset thinks! Remember Lloyds pharmacy and the CEO's frustration with the market? And the time of the LEAP IPO? It isn't as straightforward as one might think. I recall a certain crisis in February which didn't help. Finally, the cash pile - there's enough for a full year from last published accounts. So much more than a couple of months.

An interesting volley of responses. Thanks. I'd add:
a- he is on 'the inside' whether one judges that it is advantageous or not, so it is illegal
b - IPO'ing a company ain't straightforward especially if it is in a bit of a mess. I believe this point was expanded on at the AGM.
c - The aim of the sale is to focus SEED on the CBD/cannabis/food science market.
d - is it worthwhile to hold on to LEAP? That's the million dollar question I guess. But the board reckons it's better to focus SEED on it's core strength.

Dang it! Autocorrect! Just reread my post - should read illegal! Not legal!

sorry - pressed enter by mistake without finishing the sentence.
I imagine the next relevant news will be around the liquidation of our holding in LEAP (likely before the end of the year from what I gathered from the agm), at which point the question of director holdings could be raised again.
Next sustainable share bump is likely to be around October when interest and sentiment in cannabis stocks is likely to upswing given the expected Bundestag decision. I imagine buyers before that point will be taking the bottom into account (has it just been marked?), if a value opportunity exists, and finally sentiment. Buy and sell before October, sure, but there is activity on the way.

Quite possibly it is because LEAP is still going through a process of a sale. Given Ed sits on the board of LEAP, buying shares in SEED pre-liquidation event will be interpreted as 'insider dealing'. Thus even if I am hoping for an RNS announcing Director buying, I know that won't happen as it would be legal.
I imagine the next news

What’s the correct price? Of course much higher than 2.7p. NAV, even updated suggests a SP of 8.1p.

The panic of some holders following, what in my mind was a routine business decision, undoubtedly led to them to walk away from SEED. The question is whether all the heavy PI selling has finished? I personally don't think it was rational to sell at 4p or even 5p before Ed's announcement. The calm of the last few days suggests that those who were hanging on for a massive valuation of LEAP have likely left us. Or they've lost so much that they've decided to sit it out. Either way, I can't think of much to suggest there wouldn't be a decent bump up. I think I'm going to buy some more tomorrow. Unless someone else persuades me there are risks (with a probability above 20%) I haven't identified.

I agree about it being only a trade. No news just yet. But with AIM, I've noticed that companies tend to be a bit leaky with news. The news that would reassure me at this stage is something about Director buying. That would mark a bottom.

I hope I haven't left it too late. Maybe need to get in early tomorrow morning. But it still seems ridiculously low.

Mr Barwick! I’ve lost track of you are a bull or a bear on this! But I bet you have bought back in, right? And not only for 10%!

Some reasonable trades late today. Anyone here buying yet? Are we all watching who will blink first? I have to admit I am getting closer to buying some. It's hard to see too much further downside, and easier to see a reasonable upside. NAV of at least 5p let's say, which means it should be an easy 100% from here? Regardless of what we think about Ed. It's going to take some time for ANY Director to burn through that, so a bump back up at some stage, is inevitable, right? What do others think? Have we reached the bottom? Are we about to get an RNS saying that Directors are buying? What was that second AGM resolution about 'Make market purchases of its ordinary shares'? Is that a share buyback? As I'm writing this, I'm only getting closer to convincing myself of buying back in. As toxic as it can be, something like that crazy lover we all had in our early twenties, you sometimes just know it may just be worth it. At this price, it really feels like one of the better options on AIM.

I’m sure the boards will still fill with ‘banter’ in the meantime! And comments about Ed!

Kingbilly- it looks like there was a pretty hefty (£100k+) buy booked a bit later. It’s fine trading but it’s a bit of a risk that you’ll miss the next bump up…and as you point out, they do seem to be missing a subtle underlying improvement in fundamentals that will provide this bump… .

I believe the RNS was released on 7 September

dagenham - Most activity I can see is from panicked PIs selling. It's lonely as a PI and of course many spend a lot of time on chat boards like this. There're some good posts but plenty that aren't healthy, either from the point of indicating the mind set of the poster and neither are they healthy to read! Hence volume has been really thin and SP has fallen on thin, thin volume. I'm expecting further falls, perhaps to the 1.8 mark.