Member Info for Takayama

Hi Novum Boy. I agree with your trading style. I do the same. But your manner of addressing others on this board is really really pompous. I'm sure you're not like that in real life (unless you live in a 1970s sitcom), so stop doing yourself a disservice. You're embarrassing yourself and only making enemies. You're a smart guy. You don't need to make enemies. Stick to comments about shares, companies or make jokes to make others smile. Thanks buddy.

So what if there’s no RNS? I’d suggest that it’s riskier for a PI to put so much money in than a Director who will know the company back to front. But if a PI has put that much in, they can’t be looking for a small return. The spread and volume would make it prohibitive. So it’s still good news even if it’s a PI. And would generally just show the general i uselessness of the board if they haven’t.

Less than £8k of sales and mcap reduced by 6%! That’s over £500 000 reduction in mcap or thereabouts. So if I BUY £132k worth, SP (and Macao) doubles? And I make £132k? Is that how this works? ;-)

Spot on.

I'd doubt that the SP will move with the LEAP sale news. It'll be good to have it out of the way, but of course the key is what is the board going to do with the money? Sentiment is, I would say, the key driver to SP. Around Cannabis (the really good story in Germany and europe at the moment) and of course, what people are saying about the board (not good). It'll be nice to turn the latter around with Ed achieving better than £6m for LEAP, but I wouldn't hold your breath. It's inevitable that Cannabis will be big money in ten, twenty years. A good chance that SEED should profit from that, and of course, the certainty of not getting that twenty bagger is by selling your SEED shares. GLA.

It's interesting to see if we can guess what the rise in price is attributed to. Various scenarios:
a - US - Biden's message the other day suggesting a step change towards legalisation, and so general positive sentiment returning to Cannabis sector. (Look at Tilray! Up 41% in a month!).
b - Germany - similar to US. It is around now that action is expected.
c - Sale of LEAP imminent? Whilst this would remove a degree of uncertainty, I'm not sure it would cause an increase in SEED share price.
d - Let's face it. 3p for something worth 8p is just dumb! Of course the price will rise back to 8p!
e - Removal of Kwarteng/Truss, acceptance that reality needs to be accepted restoring risk appetite, no deal BREXIT and other such idiocy will no longer be tolerated.
f - Ukraine: Are we witnessing the slow collapse of Putin? It's better than expected, come on lads!
g - Absence of O'DONNELL. I miss the ol' fella!

Novum- this is sentiment driven at the moment. Five positives are: SEED beat the market with its crash so consensus seems to be we are going to climb from now; second is LEAP sale impending (can’t get any worse there and the negative is all proved in); third is Germany (amazing they’ve got this far); and fourth is general appetite for risk is creeping back, heralded by yesterday’s Canadian rate decision and possibly todays ECB announcement and finally, Minfordonomics is dead (for now) so UK sentiment is recovering

Pirate Flag - Fair point about Inmarsat, but I've no idea how much the final price was relative to NAV. Was it discounted? Ultimately the SP here is heavily discounted to NAV. I don't think anyone disagrees on that one. Thus any buy-up price would need to be near double or more the current SP.
Longlad - True, but then the question would be "how different is NAV to the bid price and if significantly more, then why would anyone sell at the bid price?
Slightly off topic, but because we talked about Kwarteng recently and Minfordonomics, I'd like to point out that today's events show interest rates the terrible economic hit subsequent to Kwarteng's mini-budget were directly linked to that mini budget and were not part of a world wide trend as some have claimed. I hope people recognise that just being posh and going to Eton doesn't actually result in you making good choices for the country. I know Rees Mogg claimed that world wide trend was to blame and not his rightist friend Kwarteng, but Rees Mogg is of the same ilk as Kwarteng. The sooner we rid ourselves of this peculiarly British servile admiration for privilege and top hats, the better voting decisions we will ultimately make.

Even if there were such a bid, it wouldn't be at 2,5pence a share. It would need to be realistic, so we'd still be looking at doubl-ish from here.

I wouldn't sell at this point if I was in. I'd add that I think you're on the wrong track if you think getting a right wing Swedish political party to thump this through is the answer. It isn't. It never has been and never will be. As I've always said, there is a win win here. And once there is peace with the Sami, then investment will pour in. It's an inescapable fact, one that the board will be aware of. They'd be nuts not to be working on it. It'll still take a couple of years to achieve that but the price is too low now to sell out completely ...... .

Talking to a friend (on a capital raising round) today who pointed out appetite for risk plunged to zero post feb 2022, and not helped by Kwarteng, but now slowly returning. It'll come back my friends. Nice to not be panicking at this stage and taking calm positions and waiting. I wonder if an election is on its way. Party politics aside, getting a government with a decent growth strategy injecting optimism into the country would be good. I thought that we had all agreed austerity doesn't work?

Other small caps have gone down a lot more in the last few weeks. ITM, CHAR, EML, CWR etc all looked like solid companies but down. SEED beat them all of course by being the first to drop 50% but has since maintained a solid presence in the 2.4-2.7 range.

On Germany, don't get too disappointed if it doesn't happen straight away. The point will be that it is the first step to even consider it. EU law (to which German law is subservient) won't allow any immediate change, so the question is really how Germany will look to get around that - so it's a path we're on. At least it's Germany (EU powerhouse) that we're talking about and not, say, Slovakia (not an EU powerhouse). Biden's recent pronouncement only helped the German ambition move forward.

It's really Kwarteng's resignation that will spark markets upwards in the UK.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/cannabis-stocks-surge-biden-overhauls-us-marijuana-policy-2022-10-06/

Decriminalisation of marijuana in the US - first steps. US marijuana stocks leap this evening!
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/06/politics/marijuana-decriminalization-white-house-joe-biden/index.html

Decriminalisation of marijuana in the US - first steps. US marijuana stocks leap this evening!
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/06/politics/marijuana-decriminalization-white-house-joe-biden/index.html

Well spotted MAT!

All really interesting stuff. My bet is there’ll be consolidation before long, with takeovers of the star minnows. One nice thing is that I’m guessing SEED are well positioned within those particular minnows.

Midas: “selection box”? Wow! You’re old!

SP is so so far below NAV, and the fall has been so large and solely sentiment based, it’s hard to disagree with you Dagenham.

Barwican - I thought you had bought in? Or is that you selling this morning?