Member Info for Tailender

With a p/e of not much more than 5 and a divi of over 9% the market has already priced in a drop of 30-40% in profit compared to their peers.
I live just up the road from their Centanary Quay development in Southampton. The 100 or so apartments that went on the market in 2018 have all gone at an average price of over £200k, the next stage is almost complete, people ready to move in (By oct 31st no doubt, to get their cash in this years numbers) and they will be developing the site for at least another 4 years. I have total confidence long term and like ODONNELL I am happy to take the divi until the market sees sense. We all know housing shares are cyclical but with demand and supply of housing still so out of wack, CRST look oversold.

I'm out. Held these for about 5 years and will take a hit but I can see no real cause for optimism, in either macro or micro terms, in fact my faith in management is dented. Best hope is that they get bought out, but what are they worth in the current climate ?

I'm not so sure. I've been invested for 5 years, bought in at 65p but bought the dips to average down. If I sold today I would just about wipe my face, although I have had some nice divis along the way. There's always talk of the wonderful new contracts they are picking up but if you look at the numbers the top line shows sluggish growth and the bottom line is not going anywhere fast (and margins not great). Is it worth keeping just for the yield ? I'm not convinced this is going anywhere. It's one of those jam tomorrow stocks. Opinions valued.

At the risk of being tedious, can I just rephrase the question I put yesterday morning and to which I would really like an answer. The problem with CRST, we think, in shrinking margins caused by prices in the South East stalling, especially at the top end, while the cost base increases. If this is the issue, then can the combined wisdom of this esteemed forum tell me, why are other south east focused builders, like Berkeley, untouched ? Surely it's more than just a dodgy deal for some land in the Midlands ? What am I missing ?

OK, I take your point. Perhaps the midlands land deal wasn't the smartest in corporate history, but my broader point was that 1) the financial fundamentals are sound, and 2) their attempt to diversify geographically is good strategy. Housing markets are often localised, that's why I own CRST, GLE and CRN - Not much overlap there !

My question is, are the problems of rising costs and lower margins a sector issue or a Crest Nicholson issue ? Why have we been trading at a discount to sector rivals for so long now ? Before todays fall our P/E was 7.5 compared to Barrett 9.1, Persimmon 11.5, Taylor Wimpey 11.9 (source : The Times). Did some calculations on the back of a fag packet, even if profits fell 20% over the next couple of years, shares would still be worth �5 as that would give us a P/E of just over 10. Similarly, board could keep dividend at present level, although it would cut cover to about 1.6. We also knew about skilled labour shortages in the building trade, surely a lot of this "news" was already written into the SP ? If it had gone down 2%, fair enough, but over 12%. Don't understand. Also.....I.like company's strategy of trying to move away from just being a South East builder. And their developments are quality compared to some other builders. So why doesn't the market like them. Are we the Millwall of the sector (lol) ?

Ok, so understandably there is a lot of excitement going on here, but the problem is that none of us really know what the heck is going on (or at least I don't). If this was a big company on the main market we would all say it was a re-rating, horay, and all go off for a well deserved beer or six. But this is AIM. As its AIM there are a number of possibilities. The two most likely are that something is happening that will provoke a sustained rally in the SP, onward and upwards over 50p and towards, well who knows where. The other is that this is a spike that so many AIM shares "enjoy", so take your profit and hope to buy back at 30p in a few days/weeks time. Who knows ? You pays yer money........ (Which is pretty much what ralph2010 said !)

Can fully understand why the INTU deal could possibly unravel. I invested part of my hard earnt pension in Hammerson because of the quality of their assets and taking on the debt (and tat !) of INTU leaves me pretty p*ssed off. Even so, I can't understand why these share stand at almost 40% discount to NAV. What unmitigated disaster does the market see coming down the line ? We all know the traditional high street is in long term decline but HMSO seemed to be steering the company in the leisure destination direction (eg at West Quay, Southampton) before this daft INTU deal. Perhaps we should just liquidate the company and split the cash between us (lol, but on reflection, not entirely lol !!).

At 450p HMSO was clearly undervalued by the market who seemed to have priced in the very worst Brexit, melt down on the high street and one or two other catastrophes for good measure. Klepierre clearly thought as much. Personally, I wasn't too excited about the Intu situation, didn't think a lot of Intu's portfolio. I'd be very happy to swap my HMSO holding for Klepierre, assuming they offer 650p.

So, is this case of "buy on the bad news, sell on the good", or "don't try to catch a falling knife" ?

Bought into GFRD 5 years ago at 960ish. Showing decent paper profit 2 years later but has now retraced much of the way back. 20% rise over 5 yrs isn't great and I'm wondering if this company is actually going anywhere. Yes, I know the dividend is great, but market obviously has its doubts about the long term sustainability of the divi. And now we hear the shorters are starting to move in. In case you're wondering, yes, I was in carrilion so I am mentally scarred and definitely twitchy. Convince me that in 12 months time this won't be 700 with a seriously reduced dividend.

Bought in to this a few weeks ago and have seen a big fall since. I thought renewable energy was the future and these guys were leaders in their field. So what the hell is going on, I thought ? Then I remembered, it's a bloody AIM share...........

You have me worried. Are the shorters after CNKS ? Agree this is way oversold, but what did yer man Buffet (I think it was him ?) say about the market remaining irrational longer that you can stay solvent. Shorters are like a disease. Once they attach themselves to a stock the SP will always be weak however good the actual results.

The case for companies like CRST lies not in the frothy house prices we have seen in the past couple of years, but in the ongoing shortage of supply, which is likely to be with us for another decade, they way things are looking. If demand is weaker over the next couple of years, it is only building up a backlog of demand from people waiting to get onto the housing ladder. Long term fundamentals suggest house builders shares not dear...all IMHO, of course !

Have the shorters got to work on CMS ? Can't see why else it is falling from an already very cheap sp.

Three more contracts announced today. We seem to be in a good place (Scottish fiasco aside) with infrastructure and housing, but not too much exposure to overheating London market. SP at under £13 and divi at over 5%, is this not value ??

for AGTA shareholders. As the poet might have put it,....there is a corner of a foreign field.....and that's where I've done my dosh !!

How can anyone buy a share with a 71% spread ? They are having a laugh, surely.

"Experts" tell us that you should sell your losers but let your winners run. Bought SEA at 24p, saw it rise to over 40p and held on for greater gains. Next time some one tells you to let the winners run, just say "Sea Energy". Do I sound bitter.................?

Everyone getting stressed about possible cut to dividend, even a 50% cut will still give buyers at this price 5%+. Seems the market is pricing up shares on the basis of likely P/E over 1 -2 years without any thought as to the long term situation. Not ramping......just sayin.....