Member Info for Tailender

The perceieved shortcomings of AGTA have been well chronicled on these pages, but might the SP fall so low that even the most cynical would see it as a valid punt ? I have to say that when the SP gets under 0.7p ( which given AGTAs steady fall is a distinct possibility) I will be tempted to pick up a few. Lower the price, lower the risk ? What price would tempt you back in ?

I'm with cdu021. Not in deep and will sit it out. Annoyed that it's a nasty red blob on the portfolio !

Reasearch published on the HL site this morning says of OML, "market consensus remains a strong buy". Given the SP has fallen from a high of 220p (more or less) over the past 15 months, which market is this, exactly? What they should have said is "brilliant, expanding company, global diversification. We like it. but it's SOUTH AFRICAN, so its only going one way, and that ain't up ! (Not deramping, or ramping for that matter, just frustrated that the market can't see the worth of OML)

Has anyone got anything positive to say ? Well here goes, but first I should give some context. I have a very boring share portfolio, big companies like Billiton, Statoil, stuff like that. I dabble in the odd AIM co. to amuse myself. Some do good (SEA) some ****e (like AGTA). Bottom line is, if AGTA goes down the pan the kids still get to eat ! I'm still here not because I think this is a brilliantly run company, but because of the value case. For example the palm oil part of AGTA is potentially worth way more than the market cap if a big player in that business came along and wanted to snap it up. Because of the value of her assets I believe that the lower the share price gets the more AGTA becomes a takeover target for someone bigger who thinks they can make a better fist of running the show. The next set of figures will be more than interesting. If AGTA can reduce their loss and get near to breakeven, that makes them an even tastier target. I'm not here because I think AGTA will end up a huge company paying juicy dividends, but because I think one day they will sell out with a tidy profit for all still involved. Isn't that the usual Groves/Edmonds game plan ?

Two things : First of all, the bid price has hardly moved, it's the ask which seems to have come down, hence the spread, which was 15%ish, has collapsed. Secondly.... as Brenty said, Just What is Going On ? No, seriously, why is this such a disaster when in theory it's got so much going for it in terms of assets, sector fundamentals etc. ?

is absurd and much wider than normal for this share. I would have thought it would have put anyone off buying or selling (unless out of panic). What's the MM's thinking behind this ?

Have just read that Numis have upgraded BKG from hold to buy, because their share are "too cheap". I rest my case.

Six months ago everybody loved housebuilders. Now they seem to hate them. Talk of cutting the Help to Buy scheme and raising ineterest rates, plus the significant rises already seen in the sector have provoked a sell off. This, in my view, is a huge error. It is possible that profit margins may be tighter in future if the heat comes out of prices, but demand for housing is way behind supply and governments of whatever colour are going to have to sanction a growth in housebuilding over the next 5-10 years or risk the anger of the population, especially those who wish to own their own home. Consequently housebuilders, especially those with good land stocks are going to be pretty busy in the mid term and profits will be driven my increased volumns rather than silly prices. Yields for a number of companies in this sector look very good and sustainable (Persimmon/Galliford/Kier) so there are mid term opportunities here for income seekers. P/es are a tough frothy for some, but Berkeley looks cheap at 10. Oversold, the only question is how much lower do we want them to go before topping up ?

I thougth the world and his wife knew that CRST were going to come up with a strong set of figures this week and yet the shares went up yesterday as if it was some kind of surprise. It's not ramping to say this is a strong company -it's obvious from the numbers - and yet the shares have drifted down from 400p+ in the past 10 weeks. Makes no sense to me !

I know, it's sad isn't it. I would love to think that all investors spend hours pouring over balance sheets and cash flow statements, but instead it seems they are just looking for tips, like mug punters looking through the Sun's racing pages. Congrats to all out there who found SEA all on their own . May you prosper !

A question for long term investors here. Where do you see AGTA in 5 years time ? A) A profitable business. B) Sold to another agri biz co. C) Bankrupt. (N.B.if answer is A or B, surely AGTA is a buy ?)

Don't usually pay much regard to broker tipps (quickest way to the poor house !) but I think GS are spot on here. Good company, sound balance sheet, and anyway, building stocks oversold IMO -margins may get squeezed as prices settle but volumns can only go up as supply restraints are loosened over the next few years. Normal idea that housebuilders are tied to economic cycle doesn't apply if housebuilding is driven by political targets.

which seems to have been knocked down for no real reason except the market has decreed that small and mid caps are over priced. The yield alone should keep the sp over £3.50 IMO.

Laying those guys off in Leeds obviously wasn't great news, but mid term prospects for CMS seem good given the contracts in place, so not sure why sp down almost 20% in the past two weeks. Are the shorters messing with us here ?

Don't know about others out there, but I had given up on the oil money a long time ago. The value here lies in the pan african agricultural assets, which, IMO, are ridlculously undervalued.

So long since anyone posted here that I thought I would just see if there are any other PAF holder still breathing out there. SP seems to be stuck in a fairly narrow range 14-16p, what do you think it would take to move it up beyond that ? Everything seems to be going according to plan, profits and dividends pretty good and the rands dramatic fall seems to have leveled off. This wouldn't be dear at 22p, would it ?

Thanks to all those who have knocked this share down to this absurd level, allowing me to top up and average down my holding in this excellent company.

3% drop the day before the results come out. Why would you sell then, unless you had concerns ?

I hear where you're coming from and we are all pretty frustrated with the way this has gone, but on the other hand, if you look at the list of major shareholders on the AGTA site there are some institutions invested here including Henderson - if the management are so terrible why haven't the institions jumped up and down and demanded changes (or perhaps they have ???) AGTA management have a decent record for working up their assets and then selling a company on. If that's the plan then let us know. That's what the guys at Fastnet oil and Gas are doing- they may not have any oil but at least they talk to their shareholders (lol) So how does AGTA play out in the long term ? If they start making profits then either we start getting dividends (hurrah !) or they sell out to a bigger outfit and we should all make a quid or two, which is far more the Edmonds/Grove style (horrah again !). If they don't start making profits (and will they be able to raise more capital if they are making such a pigs ear it things ?) then eventually they will be forced to sell out and with NAV so much more than MC there is still the prospect of profit for shareholders (depending on how much you paid for your shares in the first place). All of which takes us back to the original question.....just how much damage could you do buying at this price ?

when others are fearful, isn't that what yer man Buffet once said ? The lower this gets the greedier I feel.