Member Info for Tailender

Heard some chap from India on the radio a couple of days ago, said that what ever the environmentalists in the west said, India would need a lot more energy over the next 20 years and renewables could not plug the gap, so coal fired powered stations were going to happen, no question. My take on all this is that developing economies will continue to grow, even China, (though not at the previous break neck speed - but did anyone really think they could keep up 10% growth forever ?) and they will need iron and coal and, yes, even oil. The current pricing of resource shares assumes a brave new world built out of diddly squat.

Interesting piece in todays Telegraph about rise in cocoa price and the long term upward trend in demand. Would anyone with expertise in such matters like to hazard a guess what AGTA cocoa assets might be worth, say, 5 years down the line ?

It goes up for no reason, so why shouldn't it go down for no reason ?

As I was saying (12/5/15), this company is complete mystery to me. Still, nice to see it on the up !

Being the sad git that I am, I spent yesterday evening reading about all those old timers like Isiah Kahn, Ben Graham and others who made wads of cash from value investing. It's useful just to remind myself what I'm trying to do, which is grow capital over the long term. If I want a gamble I'll go to Ladbrokes. If you pay too much attention to the ups and downs of individual share prices it's all to easy to loose the big picture. Which brings me to SOCO. Now I sometimes think I'm turning into a ramper, but then again I find it hard not to say something when a company is shafted by the market. I can't think of a company with a sounder balance sheet. Loads of cash and almost no debt. And productive assets. If there is a round of MAs in the oil bizz then SOCO must be on some ones shopping list. We know the whole sector has crashed along with the oil price, but unless you think the whole hydro carbon game is finished and renewables will meet the whole worlds expanding need for energy, then it's fair to assume that oil will be $85 a brrl in 5 years time if not before. So what you think ? SOCO over sold, or what ?

but I don't look at every share in my portfolio every day. Not that long ago this was 40p, then it back tracked to low 20s, then I turn my back and it's 12p. What the **** has happened here ? Is it just the general wobble over anything to do with North Sea oil or is it something specific to do with SEA ? Half an hours research has failed to unearth anything that justifies this price, IMHO. Can anyone enlighten me ?

Yep, more debt on the balance sheet than ideal, but this is an expanding company making a profit (before one offs) and market cap is now below the value of shareholders assets. Can't be too many companies in that position ? If you apply the old Jim Slater test of comparing P/E with growth, this looks OK to me.

Everybody very excited by Telford Homes, regularly tipped by Telegraph and Jim Slater, but the value is here. Just needs someone to start talking about UANC.

Just hanging in here for the div.

Hi SouthStreet. Wasn't it Churchill who once referred to Russia as "a mystery wrapped in an enigma". Well that's rather how I look at AGTA. I have to admit that I have a soft spot for this share, but it's cost me so far. Africa will become more prosperous over the next 20/30 years and there will be higher demand for beef (locally) and cocoa (globally). I also think the palm oil assets have potential, although the company have not even started to develop that side of the business and again that's a very long term project.. So for me, the fundamentals make sense long term. But....... like everyone else I worry about possible dilution and the company's inability to turn even a small profit. I find myself having to resist the temptation to top up and average down almost every day, ah but then what do I know, I'm just a Tailender and have absolutely no idea what P.H. Edmonds next delivery is going to look like !!

If eps for 2014 was 4.6p, SP 54p, how is that I single figure P/E ? Daily telegraph says P/e 7.0, other posters use that number, or something close.

Just seen post of March 13th. Many thanks, I have just put the revolver back in the drawer. Love this company but driven crazy by the fall in the share price just when they seem to be getting some sales momentum going. Your analysis seems reasonable to me, lets hope you're right.

P/e of 7 suggests the market lacks faith that the company can acheive it's growth goals in the mid term. OK, so there has been the odd hickup over the past 12 months but the general direction of travel seems good and if even if the analysts are optimistic and the eps for this year come in just under 6p, we are still talking about a P/E of 5, which is kinda what you would expect from a mining exploration company in Mali !! Or have I got this wrong ? Could someone tell me what I'm missing before I top up at these generous levels.

What's the best scenario going forward? Asset stripped by Zambeef ? (Half in jest, half in hope !)

Beef doing well, cocoa was always a long term project, but maize results horrid and by their own admission BOD just sitting around wondering what do do with the (potential) palm oil land. Now if you had a company and one division was doing really well but another had bombed out, what would you do ? Answer on a postcard please....

Wise words, Mayfair, particularly about herd behaviour on AIM. SEA undervalued. End of story,

Clearly the next couple of years are going to be sticky (no pun intended) for the sector, but you would think the world had found a way to get by without oil/gas long term. There are going to be some really good opportunites to buy good companies cheaply in the next few months, just a matter of getting the timing right (and we all know what a mugs game that is !)

I agree with comments made, AGTA does look cheap. Balance sheet looks sound with relatively little debt. Big question for me is can we get into profit before we need to dillute to raise cash ? Would rather take a loan than give equity. By the way, I see Phillipe Henri has resigned his directorship at SBL and AOL. Cant believe AGTA is his only business interest now. perhaps he about to hand this one over to someone else as well ? Any bets ?

It's all very well people going into a funk about global growth, geopolitics, effect of QE on equity markets and all the other reasons for the big sell off, but the fact remains that shares like BKG, with a p/e of 9 and a yield of 8%+ are getting hammered. Fact is, there are going to be a lot of houses built and sold over the next ten years. Get a grip lads !

And it looks like we are getting the South Sudan oil cash, $5.6m, which I never thought we would see. Makes market cap of £11m even stranger, IMHO.