Member Info for Tailender

Only reason I can think of for the recent fall in sp is that, like Shell, the locals are nicking our oil. Does anyone know if we have "security" issues ?

So we are all a bit bemused by the recent fall in the SP, but as far as I know the oil is still coming out of the ground in Nigeria at a prodigious rate and when the finals come out at the end of April I would imagine that they are going to look pretty good. Or look at it another way, market cap £432m, shareholders funds more than twice that. However you look at this share, it's cheap. Top up, IMVHO !

Thanks for the post. I agree re. acquisitions. Now is the time to consolidate and focus on the good assets we have. Regarding the current sp, those who called 10p may have got it right for now, but perhaps they could explain WHY ? (unless gold has no future at all, which doesn't seem likely)

PAF P/E stands at 4.7 this morning and dividend 6.5%.....and the sp falls like a stone. Price of gold may drift down a little over next 12 months but then the tailings plant kicks in for us, so 2014 should be profitable again. Surely this is a buy ? Just don't get it !

OK you bears, I'm not saying you're wrong and the market isn't heading down, PAF and all, but that seems to be more to do with sentiment than cold reality, which is that if corporate earnings and dividends continue to improve as the economy picks up, the market must follow. Other wise we will end up with average P/E <10 and average divs > 5, which is nuts !

Just been looking at the interim figures again. The guvnor say OML 30 prodcution will triple in second half of 2013 to 45,000 bopd and should average 60,000 bopd in 2014. Not sure how this translates to the bottom line, but it sounds like serious dosh to me. So why has the sp been sliding south for the past week or so ??

P/E 5.7 at present, dropping to 4.5 (guestimate) as BTRP earnings come in this year. Yield 5.5%. Surely these numbers scream BUY ! (or is there some disaster just around the corner that everyone except me knows about ? This company makes a consistent profit and therefore dividend should be sustainable. Looking like an income stock as well as growth.

Absolutely ! Actually with me it's not oilies (actually up on HOIL & RKH this year) but my addiction to small African mining companies which will lead me into poverty.

Much discussion of cocoa and beef, but I seem to recall we also have 45,000 hectares of land going into palm oil production. Now I know it's going to be a while before we see any oil, but New British Palm Oil have built a business worth £600m, with revenues of £700m on 77,000 hectares. It's a crude comparison, I know, but it does suggest a certain amount of upside, given that AGTA are valued at £22m at present. Any palm oil expert out there like to comment ?

Tend to agree with nugget. Market seems to be suffering from a bit of attention deficit disorder with HOIL - if there isn't a constant flow of good news the price drifts down. The price SP really went up a few days before the interim results, but have drifted back over past couple of weeks. Final results not until April, do we have in forward guidance as to what management is expecting in H2 ?? Are we expecting any increases in production or is it steady as she goes ? IMO if she does go under 1.60 it's time to top up. A decent set of finals in the spring and sp must go over £2, surely ?

Long time since I studied economics, but as I recall, if there are more buyers than sellers the price generally rises ? But not today for PAF, it seems.

Does anyone know how the presentation in Mayfair last night went ?

So it's the beef that counts and all this cocoa lark is a bit of a red herring. Thank you once again for your peerless erudition in these matters, Labrow.

Did I forget to mention recent director purchase ? (sorry, I'm rambling now.......)

And decent dividend cover, and realistic prospect of earnings growth next year, and low debt. When you think about some of the dodgy/skint little AIM companies that people are piling into right now (done it myself !!), why is PAF not better supported by investors ? Sorry is this sounds like ramping, but sometimes I am bemused by my fellow investors.

Many thanks for that info. So we have 3,200 hectares, just under half a ton produced on each @, say £1700 p.t.. I make that something in the region of £2.7m p.a. OK, it's a contribution to a better future, but it's not going to have a radical impact on the companies revenues (unless I've misplaced the decimal point !!)

No, drop in sp doesn't make a lot of sense. esp as other iron ore juniors (Sable, Beowulf) seem to be charging ahead.

Labrow, as you seem to know about things agricultural, could you tell us : How long before a newly planted cocoa plant starts to produce beans and how much can we expect a hectare to produce. If we know that we can start to do some "back of fag packet" calculations, given cocoa is about £1700 p.t on the London futures market.

I note the Investors Chronicle has changed it's advise on PAF from "sell" to hold". Go on guys, just admit you were wrong. BUY !

From what I can make of the data which is out there, revenues and gross profit for the year ending May 2013 will be up, but not enough to put us in the black. Clearly the company is investing for the future, but if I went to my bank with a business plan they would wan't to know what my projected turnover was for the next three years and at what point I would start to break even (assuming I wasn't already). I just think that as shareholders we are entitled to have the board's projections spelt out for us. I'm in and would up my holding if I had more clear information. Maybe AGTA should be in the mushroom business (lol).