From the Hong Kong's HCM share forum / 115 Jun 2026 23:42
The following is a (Google Translated) post on 15 June from the Hong Kong's HCM share forum:
Hutchison MediPharma (HK|00013)
Regarding your interest in Hutchison MediPharma (00013.HK)'s recent stock price movements and fundamentals, we offer the following in-depth analysis based on recent market data and financial reports:
1. Has the HK$16-17 range successfully formed a bottom? What's the outlook for the market?
Short-term trend: It is in a weak and volatile state, and the bottom has not yet been confirmed.
Looking at recent market activity, the stock price has been hovering between HK$16 and HK$17 (e.g., the closing price on June 15 was HK$17.05), but has generally shown a downward trend. This performance is mainly due to two factors:
1. Insufficient Liquidity and Short-Selling Pressure: As a company listed solely in Hong Kong, it is highly susceptible to liquidity shortages when overall risk appetite in the Hong Kong stock market declines. Recently, turnover rates have been extremely low on some trading days, and the short-selling ratio has climbed to a relatively high level. Short sellers have exploited market sentiment to suppress the stock price, leading to a significant divergence between the stock price and fundamentals.
2. Lack of buying support from a technical perspective: Although there was a slight rebound in the early stages, the trading volume shrank significantly when the right peak was formed, reflecting a weakening of buying power. Currently, the stock price is still under pressure from the moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, and a short-term turning point still needs to wait for a signal of stabilization with increased volume.
II. Core Fundamentals: The Contradiction Between "Inflated" Profits and Pressure on the Core Business
The fundamental reason for the market's hesitation in pricing lies in the huge gap between the company's "paper prosperity" on the financial front and the weakness of its main business:
* Profit surge relies on "asset sales": In 2025, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company surged by 1111% year-on-year, but 91% of this came from a one-time gain of US$415.8 million from the sale of a 45% stake in Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals. Excluding this non-recurring gain, the company's actual profit from its core business was only about US$41 million, almost stagnant.
* Domestic sales of innovative drugs collectively slowed down: After divesting its traditional Chinese medicine "cash cow," the company's innovative drug business faces severe challenges. In 2025, sales of its three core products (fruquintinib, surufatinib, and cevotinib) declined by 13%, 45%, and 36% respectively in China. Entering the first quarter of 2026, revenue continued to decline by 18.7%, and operating cash flow remained negative, raising concerns about the "cash-generating function" of its main business.
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