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Me too. Bought some at 1035p. If it goes below 1000p I will buy some more. China Covid lockdown, Ukraine war, inflation, interest rate going up together created a buying opportunity.
Not only I didn't sell, I bought more shares on 7th Apr at a total price of £4.30 per share. This is so that I get to keep the same number of shares after consolidation. My reason for buying is that I am after the ~7% dividend going forward. If you are after capital gain and what to guess what the share price will be on the 16th May, just throw dice and call it.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/questor-aviva-asset-disposals-pave-170350656.html
1pencil, they are awards under the LTIP. If you clicks on the links in the column "Date of relevant event (dd/mm/yyyy)" they will give you more details. The share are freebies. These lots have not risked their own money to buys HCM shares for quite a few years now.
I think we have done this to death now. The opinions are evenly divided so the SP will just bounce around 42x for a while. Looking at the financial calendar:
09/05 - General meeting for approval
13/05 - Record time for entitlement to B shares & consolidation
16/05 - New consolidated shares become effective
18/05 - Trading update
19/05 - Dividend payment
31/05 - Payment of B shares money £1.0169
Trading update on 18 May will be the decisive day. Till then, good lucks.
Davey, sorry to hear about your loss of your dear one. You have been quite informative over the years on this discussion board and it is sad to see you leave. I too have discovered that I invested too much on HCM so I drastically cut it from 30% of my portfolio to 5% so I can be emotionally detached from this share. I still believe HCM is good at the technical delivery of its pipeline but the management is crap at commercial performance. Hopefully the science will save it by 2025 and the market will respond by then. Someday I do wonder whether this is a commercial company or a philanthropy company.
I just bought some more AV shares at a total cost of £4.30 per share. Reasons being that the company has already announced clear guidance for dividends in next two financial years at 31.5p and 33p. So this give a yield of 7.3% and 7.6% respectively. I am hoping when AV pay the dividend on 19/05 and B-shares money on 31/05, the re-investment with these money will push the share price higher. Of course I can get this absolutely wrong, in which case I am happy to keep AV shares and live with the 7% dividend :-)
@Easy_Livin, Av. issued a circular which can be downloaded from here https://www.aviva.com/investors/circular/ . The SP won't be divided by 0.76, the circular page 16 said "the market price for the
Company’s Ordinary Shares remains at approximately the same level as prevailed immediately prior to the implementation of the
B Share Scheme".
The MC of the company also goes down, the circular page 16 said "As an immediate consequence of returning capital to Shareholders, the value of the Company’s net assets will be reduced. "
@maddmax, the share price immediately post consolidation will be roughly the same as pre-consolidation. However, higher dividend per share might attract dividend seekers yo buy and push up the share price but this is by no mean guaranteed to happen.
Received dividend of GBP 0.1656 today. The official NAV GBP 13.57 but the current share price is 13.81. Lots of small buys today must be the re-investment of dividend. Current yield is over 8% great to combat inflation.
The official release NAV today is GBP 13.36 but the share price is currently GBP 13.60.
After over 5 years I am only a few percent up, which in real term have lost money. Comparing HCM with Beigene I come to the conclusion that HCM management is inept at anything to do with the stock market. Both HCM and Beigene have fallen badly this year but Beigene is a few hundred percent up in 5 years whereas HCM isn't. HCM management is good at delivering the pipeline. Now that the CEO has a research and development background the pipeline delivery may get even better. Whether that translate to an exponential growth in share price or not I don't know. Luckily HCM is less than 5% of my portfolios so I intend to wait till it become profitable, hopefully in a few years time.
Beigene. A while back I sold some Hutchmed and bought Beigene because its management seem much bolder in making commercial decisions than Hutchmed. It went to HK before Hutchmed, already has a Shanghai listing, US manufacturing & R&D coming, large pipeline, good at building partnerships, good cash position. However, my timing was wrong so I am now sitting at a loss :-(
What has happened to the nearly 20% Russian stock in this tracker? The drop in share price recently seem to indicate that they have been priced at $0.00 ?
Calm. Calm. Analysts are doing their job in DCF, projections for revenue, EBIT and cashflow … etc. They are useful. No analysts in the world can predict a “regulator” willing to harm their own citizens’ and their allies’ (Canada) investments to get at China, Ukraine war, Taiwan, Putin going nuclear… etc.
Hutchmed stated on their website that the Principal Place of Business is HK so that is their HQ. Therefore they can’t be audited from Cayman.
Don’t forget Hutchmed is 70% owned by CKHH, institutions & management, has enough cash to last until 2024/5 and is predicted to be profitable by 2025 so it is not going bankrupt overnight, worthless or worth less or something.
One problem with too low a share price is that the company might be tempted to take it private, do some deals with the institutions and buy out the retail investors at the prevailing price plus a premium.
In the current situation there are 3 possible outcomes:
1) China and US do a deal -> share price go up.
2) Company delist and go private -> share price go up (because retail investors will be bought out at prevailing price plus a premium) unless the company decides to fxxx the retail investors by only offer the prevailing price.
3) Company delist from US but continue in HK & London, later Shanghai -> share price go up slowly.
There seem to be an over- reaction to the potential delisting. I know the NASDAQ listing carries a premium because investors believe US market has what seems like a more vigorous regulatory environment. But is that premium worth 100% of the current share price? I doubt it.
Hutchmed’s ADS shares are fully fungible with the shares listed on HKEX and London AIM so US investors can switch to those two markets if need be.
Don’t forget Hutchmed is ~40% owned by CKHH (Li Ka-shing) and ~30% owned by institution and management so it not like it is going bankrupt overnight or something.
If Hutchmed is delisted from Nasdaq that is not the end of the world. It can always get a listing on the STAR market in Shanghai. There is an academic study paper here https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/127009/1191230769-MIT.pdf , page 22 that says the average company increased its value by 1.9 times between delisting in the US and relisting in China.
Hutchmed is still predicted to be profitable by 2025. That has not changed.
A relevant HK Newspaper report worth reading, especially the 3 options near the end of the report:
https://caifuhao-eastmoney-com.translate.goog/news/20220311124447099715150?from=guba&name=5ZKM6buE5Yy76I2v5ZCn&gubaurl=aHR0cDovL2d1YmEuZWFzdG1vbmV5LmNvbS9saXN0LGhrMDAwMTMuaHRtbA%3D%3D&_x_tr_sl=zh-CN&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp